Advance Warning for the Professional
We post occasional thoughts and interesting observations about our U.S recession forecasting methodologies, market timing tools and the market on this blog.
We are also posting daily Market Intelligence Brief (MIB) editions here – our unique curated view on the daily news and market action – to allow for reading flexibility and research reference.
An OpenAI revenue scare split the AI trade: the FT’s ~$50 billion run-rate sank chipmakers and Bloomberg’s $70 billion target revived only software, leaving Intel -12.26% and Palantir +10.75% on the week. The S&P 500 still gained 1.15% after its first close above 7,800, carried by staples, utilities and energy. The 10-year hit a 24-year closing high of 5.315% before auctions drew buyers and the Fed minutes named AI borrowing as a rival for capital.
Software lifted the S&P 500 0.59% back above 7,800 after Bloomberg said OpenAI expects at least $70B in annualized revenue by year-end, but Intel and AMD kept sliding. Michigan long-run inflation expectations hit 3.5%, the highest since May, while the 2-year yield rose 3.7 bps. The White House set a Nov 5 hearing on whether to remove Fed Governor Cook. Treasury licensed Russian diesel imports through April 2027. Apple reportedly cut iPhone 18 Pro component orders at least 15%.
An FT report that OpenAI’s revenue run-rate sits about $20 billion below earlier signals sank chipmakers, dragging the Nasdaq 100 down 1.39% as Oracle fell 5.48%. Hurricane Isaias shut in 63% of Gulf oil output, and WTI settled up $3.21 at $91.49. Trump ruled out striking Iran before the midterms. Waller and Musalem both signaled more hikes, yet the 10-year fell 5.9 bps. After the bell, SpaceX agreed to buy nationwide 800 MHz spectrum, and AT&T fell 6.75% after hours.
Fed minutes show most officials expect another hike by year-end and record market concern that AI borrowing is lifting term premiums. The 10-year yield touched a 24-year intraday high of 5.364% before a strong $39B auction pulled it back. IEA members agreed to speed up emergency oil releases, and WTI settled down $1.16 despite a crude draw. Deere fell 3.8% on a new FTC-USDA farm-equipment inquiry. Platinum dropped 4.1% as the dollar posted its highest close in 122 sessions.
The S&P 500 topped 7,800 for its first record close since August (+0.58%), even with the 10-year at 5.274%. Constellation Energy jumped 12.25% on a 20-year Google nuclear deal, lifting Utilities 2.79%. Marvell rose 5.81% after setting a $70-90B fiscal 2031 revenue goal. Fed’s Daly named AI demand alongside oil and tariffs as shocks that could force more hikes if they compound. The August trade deficit widened to $105.6B. Skydance began trading after closing its Warner Bros. Discovery deal.
Megacap tech carried the Nasdaq to a record close (+1.05%) and Nvidia to its own record (+2.12%) as October Fed-hike odds fell to 24%. Bonds dissented: the 10-year rose to 5.315%, its highest close in over two decades per Reuters. ISM’s services prices index climbed to 74.0, highest since July 2022. Crude fell about 2% on recovering Mideast exports despite weekend Houthi strikes on Aramco. Schneider to buy PTC for $23.7B; PTC +33%. Bolsonaro upset lifts Petrobras ADRs 11.5%.
A global long-bond rout drove the week: the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% Thursday, its highest since 2002, and finished 10.9 bps higher even as soft payrolls and a cooler PCE cut October Fed-hike odds to about 23%. Chip equipment carried the Nasdaq 100 to a record (AMAT +11.35%, LRCX +10.24%, KLAC +10.09%) while the S&P 500 and Dow fell. Gold lost 3.48% despite repeated Hormuz ship strikes.
September payrolls rose 29,000 against roughly 90,000 expected, unemployment hit 4.2% and October hike odds sank to about 23%. Stocks cheered: S&P 500 +0.73%, Nasdaq 100 at a record. Bonds didn’t, with the 2-year up 4.0 bps after Dallas Fed’s Logan called for 50 bps or more of further hikes. The G7 agreed a 100 million-barrel reserve release and WTI fell 1.9%, but a sixth vessel since Sunday was struck in Hormuz. TSLA rose 4.65% on a delivery beat.
Brent jumped 4.3% to $102.22 as Chinese refiners suspended October fuel exports. The 10-year yield touched 5.34% intraday, its highest since 2002, then closed down 4.8 bps; UK 30-year gilts topped 6%. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson called energy “the predominant factor” in rising inflation as ISM’s prices gauge leapt to 77.9. Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage rate hit 7.28% and junk CDS widened to April levels. Anthropic eyes a November IPO at up to $2 trillion.
A cooler August PCE cut October hike odds to about 37% from 51%, and Goldman pushed its next-hike call to December. Bonds balked: the 10-year rose 5.0 bps to 5.292%, highest since April 2002 per Investing.com, and 30-year mortgage rates hit 7.30%. A late selloff left only the Nasdaq 100 higher. The Fed finalized a stress-test overhaul over Barr’s dissent, CMS tied Part B drug rebates to international prices, and Amazon signed a 20-year nuclear deal with Constellation.
WTI slid 3.98% to $88.91 as Kpler counted 12.5 million barrels loaded at Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu, while Iran awaits a formal US reply through Qatar. NY Fed’s Williams saw “no need for urgency,” pulling October hike odds to about a coin flip, but Barr and Goolsbee held the tightening line. The 30-year still touched its highest since 2002 intraday. Confidence sank to 81.9 against 89.2 expected. Axios put OpenAI’s run-rate near $70B as chip-equipment names lifted the Nasdaq 100.
Trump rejected Iran’s Hormuz roadmap, and the damage ran through bonds: the 10-year closed at 5.241%, topping last week’s high, and the S&P 500 fell 0.77%. Fed Governor Cook said the labor market appears able to handle higher rates. Gold sank 4.02% and silver 5.83%. META fell 4.79% on a reported rival OpenAI agent, while NVDA rose 1.68% on a $150B buyback boost. Boeing slid about 6% as the FAA held up 737 MAX 10 certification.
The 10-year Treasury closed Thursday at 5.225%, its highest since 2007, after a flash PMI at 58.4 and eight Fed speakers pushed October hike odds to roughly 70% — and yet the S&P 500 finished up 1.21%. That gain belonged to almost nobody: the Nasdaq 100 rose 3.25% on Meta (+12.90%), Qualcomm (+13.65%), Intel (+13.26%) and AMD (+12.65%), while the NYSE Composite and the Russell 2000 both fell. Oracle lost 7.12% on a force-majeure notice over its New Mexico data centre.
Microsoft (MSFT) jumped 3.66%, leading the Dow and S&P 500, after a Copilot overhaul putting its agents on usage-based pricing. Core capital-goods orders rose 1.6%, but Michigan year-ahead inflation expectations climbed to 4.6%, keeping an October hike in play. WTI fell 2.01% on hopes of a phased US-Iran Hormuz deal. Xi left Washington with no new purchase deals and advanced chips off the table. BofA double-downgraded Nike (NKE) to Underperform with a $30 target, six days before earnings.
The 10-year jumped 10.9 bps to 5.225%, its highest since 2007, and the 7-year auction cleared at the highest yield since 1993. Brent surged 4.25% to $107.46 on an Iranian threat to widen the war and Houthi missiles aimed at Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu terminal. The Fed’s Williams called another hike by year-end “reasonable.” META +4.50% held the S&P 500 flat as eight of 11 sectors fell. Anthropic committed $11.6B to Akamai’s cloud. ORCL -3.47% on a Project Jupiter force-majeure notice.
The 10-year yield jumped 16.2 bps to 5.110%, highest since June 2007, after a hot flash PMI (58.4) and a weak 5-year auction. Stocks fell with bonds: S&P 500 -0.75%, Russell 2000 -1.77%. Fed’s Barr: further adjustments “likely to be needed”; October hike odds near 73%. Brent surged 4.43% back above $100 on Iran’s UN defiance despite a US crude build. McDonald’s sank 4.81% on flat-traffic guidance. Bessent is “open” to extending the China truce before Thursday’s Xi summit.
Wall Street split: the Nasdaq 100 closed above its June peak as SanDisk (+6.82%) and Micron (+5.00%) ran, while the S&P bank index sank 3% on AI-disruption fears from Meta’s Muse agent, with Schwab down 6.1%. WTI fell 2.73%, a fifth straight loss, after Iran offered to reopen Hormuz within seven days. Trump pushed a diesel export ban; Valero, also downgraded, slid 4.10%. Fed’s Barkin on more hikes: “We’ll see.” Royal Caribbean tumbled 6.14% on a $3B Sandals stake report.
Crude fell a fourth session, Brent slipping below $100 (-3.77%) as Saudi tankers massed in the Gulf and Iran relayed its Hormuz terms; the S&P 500 rose 1.49% to within 0.4% of its record. Intel (+12.17%), AMD (+9.95%) and Meta (+11.34%) lifted the Nasdaq 100 2.83%. Fed’s Musalem said more hikes are likely; the 2-year rose as the 10-year fell 4.2 bps. Paramount settled the states’ suit, sending WBD up 10.79%. Bitcoin jumped 7.57% to an eight-month high.
MIB WEEKLY DIGEST Week of Sep 14–18, 2026 The Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023 and signalled more, sending the 2-year yield up 12.4 bps and the 10-year to its first closes above 5% before a Friday retreat to 4.998%. The Nasdaq 100 (+0.94%) was the only major index higher as an AI-safety essay lifted CrowdStrike 14.95% on the week while chip equipment crashed and then recovered most of the loss. Bank of America’s fee warning […]
The 10-Year climbed back to 4.998% as the 2-Year jumped 6.4bps and Bank of America warned of a “2022 redux.” The Bank of Japan hiked to 1.25%, a 31-year high — and the yen weakened. WTI fell 2.35% to $99.52 while AAA’s national diesel average hit a record $6.4476. Warren Buffett stepped down as Berkshire chairman at 96. Bitcoin jumped 6.15% above $80,000; Netflix fell 4.67% on a Wells Fargo downgrade. August industrial production stalled as manufacturing output fell 0.3%.
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