Dow crossed 50,000 as Trump declared Iran talks ‘in final stages,’ crashing WTI -5.7% to $98 and pulling the 10-year yield -9 bps. NVIDIA Q1 beat ($81.6B, +85% YoY; Q2 guide $89-93B, $80B buyback) lifted AMD +8.1% and INTC +7.4%. Russell 2000 led all indices at +2.51% as rate-sensitive small-caps caught the yield-relief bid. April FOMC minutes put a majority on record for hiking; December probability above 50%. 20-year Treasury auction cleared at 5.12% with below-average demand, post-Moody’s.
Tag Archives | Russell 2000
MIB Daily: WTI Below $100 and NVDA’s $81.6B Beat — Can Iran Hold Long Enough to Kill December’s Rate Hike?
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MIB Weekly: Stagflation Confirmed, AI Capex Accelerating, Summit Resolved Nothing — Own Energy & AI Infrastructure, Sell Rate-Sensitive Duration Through the Fall Diplomatic Window
WTI crude surged +11.52% to $105.48 as US-Iran ceasefire talks collapsed — “garbage” per Trump Tuesday — while CPI 3.8% and PPI 6.0% pushed rate-hike odds from under 3% to over 50% in 72 hours and the 10Y to a one-year high of 4.601%. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair inheriting this stagflation stack. The Trump-Xi summit briefly drove records (S&P 7,500, Dow 50,000 Thursday) before crashing Friday on zero binding deals — tariffs, chips, and Taiwan all unresolved.
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MIB: Records Across the Board — Semiconductor Surge, Hormuz Transits, and Strong JOLTS Lift Markets While ISM Flashes Demand Warning
The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 hit simultaneous all-time highs Tuesday as Apple–Intel US chip manufacturing talks (INTC +13%) and Iran’s failure to strike energy infrastructure drove WTI –3.65% to $102. Project Freedom’s first Hormuz commercial ship transits confirmed the ceasefire is intact. ISM Services held at 53.6% but New Orders plunged 7.1pp — highest-since-2022 Prices Paid (70.7%) signal stagflation risk persists. JOLTS hires surged +655K to 5.6M; GDPNow Q2 upgraded to 3.7%; AMD reports after close tonight.
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MIB: Iranian Tanker Seizure, Fed Chair Hearing, and the $166B Tariff Refund Portal Open for Claims
US Navy seized Iranian tanker Touska in Gulf of Oman, spiking WTI +4.35% and snapping the Nasdaq’s historic 13-session streak. Russell 2000 hit a record close (+0.58%) as small-caps diverged sharply from mega-cap tech. Fed chair nominee Warsh faces Senate grilling Tuesday — Sen. Tillis blocks vote as Powell’s May 15 term looms. CBP opened a $166B tariff refund portal (IEEPA duties ruled unconstitutional). Amazon commits $25B more to Anthropic in 2026’s largest AI infrastructure deal.
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MIB: Strait Relief — Record Highs, Oil Collapse, $127B Tariff Refunds, and a Fed Forced to Recalibrate
Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open,” sending WTI oil crashing 11.4% in the largest single-day drop since the war began. S&P 500 closed above 7,100 for the first time (+1.20%); Nasdaq’s winning streak hit 13 sessions — longest since 1992. Netflix (NFLX −9.72%) tanked on weak Q2 guidance and Reed Hastings’ board exit. Fed’s Waller: rate cuts viable if Hormuz stays open. A $127B IEEPA tariff refund portal launches Monday.
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MIB: $111 Oil, Drug Tariffs, and a Tesla Gut-Punch — Markets Stare Down the Iran Abyss
WTI surges +11.6% to $111.69 as Trump vows 2-3 more weeks of Iran war with no Hormuz off-ramp; gasoline $4.08 nationally. S&P 500 recovered from -1.5% to close +0.11% after Iran/Oman signaled a Hormuz monitoring protocol. Trump unveiled 100% tariffs on patented drugs (120-day phase-in). Tesla deliveries 358K missed by 12K (TSLA -5.42%). Oracle confirms 30,000 layoffs to fund AI expansion. March NFP tomorrow — markets react Monday.
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MIB: Oil Shock, Semiconductor Selloff, and Powell’s Dovish Pivot Reshape the Market
Iran War Day 31: Trump threatens to obliterate Iran’s energy infrastructure unless Hormuz reopened immediately (Tehran: demands “unrealistic”). WTI +5.39% to $105; gas $3.99 nationally, up $1.01 in one month. Google TurboQuant AI compression crushes semiconductors: MU -9.92%, LRCX -5.43%, Nasdaq -0.73%. Powell “looks past” oil shock at Harvard — rate hike odds collapsed from 52% to 2%. Russell 2000 -1.51% vs Dow +0.11% — small caps pricing in recession. Nike earnings tomorrow.
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MIB: Precious metals rout, Qatar struck again — Hormuz Week 3 Rewrites Every Portfolio Playbook
Gold crashes -5% through $5,000 as real yields spike — silver -6%, platinum -4%. Iran strikes Qatar’s LNG; Dutch TTF gas surges +13%. Chip equipment stocks surge (LRCX +4.13%, AMD +2.91%) on Micron AI beat, but MU -3.78% sell-the-news. Jobless claims 205K beat, defying stagflation fears. S&P -0.28% but Russell 2000 +0.64% as Israel pledges Hormuz reopening. FedEx beats AMC, raises guidance.
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