For many years now, we have provided multifactor trough/peak probability models for subscribers for SP500, QQQ (Nasdaq-100), GLD (Gold), IWM (small-caps), BTC (Bitcoin), AGG (Bond market), VTI (Total market), EFA (Developed markets ex U.S & Canada), EEM (Emerging markets) and IJH (mid-caps). You can read about their methodology in this research note. Running and using […]

Introduction The 10-year Treasury note is a debt obligation issued by the United States government with a maturity of 10 years upon initial issuance. A 10-year Treasury note pays interest at a fixed rate once every six months and pays the face value to the holder at maturity. The 10-year Treasury yield is the current […]

Since we originally designed and built the Weekly SuperIndex recession model, we have created fourteen other quantitative recession models for clients over the last decade. These range from broad-based short, medium, and long-term composite leading & coincident economic indicators to composites focused on Housing, Labor, Gross Domestic Product & Income and Valuations. Each of these […]

On 26th February 2002, Paul F. Desmond from Lowry’s Research published a seminal paper titled “Identifying Bear Market Bottoms & New Bull Markets” (  download) This concept measured market breadth, namely daily advancing stocks as a % of advancing and declining stocks as well as points gained as a % of points gained and lost. The research […]

1. Introduction The Trendex indicators are a suite of proprietary short, medium and long term market timing trailing stops with accompanying market peak & bottom probabilities to allow market participants to minimize as well as assess risk or opportunity for nine of the most popular U.S ETF’s commonly used in diversified portfolios. The Trendex indicators […]

In PART-1 we looked at how we used the RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI) to determine 10-year ahead forecasts on the SP500 Total Return Index (TRI) with a better than 0.89 correlation, and how we managed to derive 5,3 and 2 year ahead SP500 forecasts with correlations of 0.8, 0.68 and 0.55 respectively. In PART-2 we examined three […]

In PART-1 we looked at how we used the RAVI to determine 10-year ahead forecasts on the SP500 Total Return Index with a better than 0.89 correlation, and how we managed to derive 5,3 and 2 year ahead SP500 forecasts with correlations of 0.8, 0.68 and 0.55 respectively. In PART-2 we are going to focus […]

There are many metrics currently being touted that demonstrate the stock market is dangerously overvalued. Many respectable models are even forecasting double digit negative returns for the US stock market over the next 10 years. In this research note we  look at our RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI) and how to interpret what it is currently […]