Three Fed presidents (Williams, Daly and Logan) backed further tightening as December hike odds hit 90% after October PPI, and Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly pushed back. Chips extended the Nvidia fallout: AMD fell 8.75%, Broadcom dropped 4.87% on a downgrade, and HSBC cut Nvidia to Hold. PPI’s 0.3% headline missed, but prices ex-food, energy and trade jumped 0.5%. The dollar closed at its highest since at least April 15. After the close, the FAA grounded departures nationwide.
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Dwaine has a Bachelor of Science (BSc Hons) university degree majoring in computer science, math & statistics and is a full-time trader and investor. His passion for numbers and keen research & analytic ability has helped grow RecessionALERT into a company used by hundreds of hedge funds, brokerage firms and financial advisers around the world.MIB Daily: Three Fed Hawks Back a Hike Over Bessent’s Objection as December Odds Hit 90%, AMD Sinks 8.75% in an AI Hardware De-Rating, and Defensives Lead With Duration Exposed Into the Minutes
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MIB Daily: Nvidia Lost Huang and the AI Trade Rotated to AMD and Broadcom, but Bonds Broke as the 10-Year Jumped to 5.13%, Brent Hit $96 and Home Sales Sank to a 2010 Low
Jensen Huang quit Nvidia effective immediately; NVDA fell 4.34% and at least six firms cut it to Hold, while AMD (+5.86%) and Broadcom (+5.54%) rallied. Hammack and Daly called for higher rates, a December hike is fully priced, and the 10-year jumped 13.7 bps to 5.133%. Brent rose 3.51% on Houthi strike claims against Saudi oil sites. Existing-home sales sank to their lowest since August 2010. Trump threatened to double Mexico tariffs, and SpaceX-Tesla merger talks advanced, per Bloomberg.
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MIB Daily: Hot CPI Moved the Fed From Whether to How Fast, the 2-Year Jumped 18.2 bps as Nvidia Fell 5.47% on a $7.5B China Report, Tariffs Keep Goods Prices Hot and Only Oil Below $90 Offers Relief
Hot October CPI moved the Fed debate from whether to how fast: core rose 0.3% for a third month, meeting Waller’s half-point condition, while the 2-year jumped 18.2 bps and the 10-year briefly retook 5%. Logan wants at least two more hikes. Nvidia sank 5.47% on a report that Huang’s relationship aided at least $7.5B of chip shipments to Chinese firms. Anthropic set a $70-$78 IPO range valuing it at up to about $1.4T. Brent briefly broke below $90.
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MIB Daily: Short-Covering Chip Bounce Lifts AMD 11% as 165,000 Jobs Push December Hike Odds to 78%, Microsoft Cools on Oracle Compute and Brent Has Its Biggest Weekly Drop Since 2020, Leaving AI Hardware Exposed to CPI
Chips led a narrow rebound from Thursday’s AI rout: AMD jumped 11.04% and the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.35%; the Dow fell 0.46%. October payrolls rose 165,000, far above forecasts, lifting CME December hike odds to 78% as 2-year yields rose 4.8 bps. Fed’s Daly expects policy will have to tighten further. Brent headed for its largest weekly drop since 2020 on US-Iran talks. Microsoft is reportedly winding down Oracle compute rentals. Tesla (+4.23%) will wind down Cybertruck output for Cybercab.
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MIB Daily: Democrats Sweep and the Dow Jumps 3.03% as Wall Street Prices Gridlock, Big Tech and Medicaid Insurers Win While Oil, Defense and Vistra Sink, but a 78% Fed Hike Still Rides on Friday’s Payrolls
Democrats sweep Congress and the Dow jumps 3.03%, its best day since at least April 15, as the VIX sinks 20%. Crude plunges more than 8% on bets the Iran war ends sooner, the 10-year falls 7.3 bps and gold climbs 3.34%. The AI trade splits: Microsoft and Amazon surge, Vistra sinks 13.83%. Centene soars 12.64% on Medicaid hopes; CVS plans a split. Yet ADP beats and ISM prices hold at 73, keeping another Fed hike priced.
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MIB Daily: AI Starts Selling Stock to Fund Itself as Oracle Raises $20B and Marvell Pays in Paper, While a 7% Oil Plunge on Iran Talk Fails to Cool 76% December Hike Odds and Airlines Rally
Crude plunged 7.44% to $96.37 after Trump said there is “no rush” to resume fighting Iran. Oracle (ORCL) fell 8.76% on a $20 billion stock-and-bond raise, and Marvell (MRVL) sank 12.72% on its $115 billion all-stock Lumentum deal. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.39%, ending 10.4% below its October 6 close, while the Dow rose 0.41%. ISM manufacturing beat at 55.5 and GDPNow rose to 3.7%, keeping December hike odds at 76%. Anthropic’s IPO filing showed $895 billion of purchase commitments.
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MIB Daily: Free Cash Flow Is the New AI Scorecard and Alphabet Failed It, Erasing $500 Billion as Healthcare and Real Estate Led, the 10-Year Fell Below 5% on a 3.4% GDP Beat and Crude Held Above $100 on Iran Risk
Alphabet’s worst day since its 2004 listing (-12.64%) on negative free cash flow erased roughly $500 billion and dragged the Nasdaq 100 down 1.38%, yet four in five S&P 500 stocks rose. Q3 GDP beat at 3.4% and PCE inflation matched at 3.6%; the 10-year fell 11.7 bps to 4.934%. Microsoft launched a $25 billion-plus bond sale. DoorDash (+5.61%) agreed to buy Instacart for $17 billion. CENTCOM briefed Trump on Iran military options; crude ended flat above $100.
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MIB Daily: Two Fed Votes for a Hike and the 2-Year Rallied Anyway, SK Hynix’s Sold-Out 2029 Lifts Chipmakers as Oracle Jumps 10.73%, and With WTI at $101.95 Thursday’s PCE Decides December
The Fed held at 3.75%-4.00%, but Governor Cook and Cleveland’s Hammack dissented for a hike and Warsh refused forward guidance; the 2-year still fell 4.1 bps. SK Hynix says DRAM and HBM are sold out through 2029, lifting Micron 5.86% and Lam 5.39%. Oracle jumped 10.73% after capping new AI fundraising at $20 billion. WTI rose 2.05% to $101.95 on Yemen fighting and Iran strike fears. GDPNow ends Q3 at 3.3%, setting up Thursday’s GDP and PCE.
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MIB Daily: The War Shows Up in Prices, Not Panic, as Brent Hits $116.62 and Selling Prices Run Hottest Since 2022, Energy Leads While Staples and Gold Fall Ahead of Wednesday’s Fed Decision
Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia lifted Brent 3.05% to $116.62, its third straight weekly gain, as UN Ambassador Waltz warned the Iran war could last another year. The Dow fell 1.23% while the Nasdaq 100 finished flat. Flash PMI selling prices rose at the sharpest rate since August 2022 and Michigan year-ahead inflation expectations hit 4.7%, ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision. CrowdStrike jumped 8.25%, gold slid 1.25%, and Instacart rose about 9% on reported sale talks with Uber and DoorDash.
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MIB Daily: Housing Breaks Under 5.1% Yields Yet a December Hike Is Now Consensus, Nvidia Can’t Promise Supply on $35B of China Orders, Brent’s Floor Rises and Healthcare Lifts the Dow as Chips Slide
Housing cracked under 5.1% Treasury yields: September starts fell 5.2% to 1.221M against a 1.30M consensus and pending sales plunged 7.3%. A Reuters poll now has nearly all economists expecting a December Fed hike. Healthcare led a rotation out of tech, lifting the Dow 1.02% to its highest close since September 11, while Brent reversed from a $111.99 intraday high. Anthropic’s draft IPO filing showed $16.3B first-half revenue and ~$450B of cloud commitments. Salesforce agreed to buy Braze; BRZE +51.7%.
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MIB Daily: Wall Street Bought AI Again but Bonds Didn’t, Amazon Jumped 4.98% While a 5.145% 10-Year Sank Housing, REITs and Utilities, as Gulf Risk Builds Ahead of Meta’s Capex Test
Amazon jumped 4.98% after Morgan Stanley named it a Top Pick, and the SMH chip ETF snapped a nine-session slide as the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.17%. Only three of 11 sectors gained: the 10-year yield climbed 5.5 bps to 5.145% and utilities fell 1.86%. Builder confidence hit a 14-year low. Trump waived the Graham Act’s Russia tariffs, and Houthis claimed unverified strikes on Aramco’s Yanbu site. Anthropic is reportedly in talks for about $45 billion more Nscale compute.
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