Archive | September, 2012

50 State Co-incident update : No Recession

A while back we published an interesting project (Predicting US Recessions with State co-incident data) to see if we could get some advance recession warning  from the co-incident indices of the 50 US states. We built a composite economic index of 50 U.S states as published by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, combined in a positively-weighted […]

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CFNAI- revisions and recessions

The latest CFNAI-MA3 reading came in at -0.47 from last weeks -0.26 (revised down from -0.21). This downward jump (and downward revision)  naturally has everyone on edge. We are not yet concerned with this reading as it is not being corroborated by any leading indicators. However with the perma-bears now being forced to hang their […]

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Judging Recession Forecasting Accuracy

In August 2011, ECRI declared a recession was upon us. If you spend enough time examining their initial proclamations it was literally that a recession was imminent, saying “It’s either just begun, or it’s right in front of us.” Subsequently they revised their call, saying the recession would hit “by mid year” 2012. At that time an array […]

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  RECESSIONALERT,  WED 20 OCT : THERE IS 1x PRO ALERT AND 1 X MACRO-ECONOMIC WARNING