Broadcom’s decade-long Apple chip deal ignites a broad semiconductor rebound, driving the S&P (+0.72%) and Dow to record highs while AMD (+6.61%) and Arista (+8.31%) ride AI-infrastructure demand. June’s ISM Services report complicates the rate-cut story: hiring jumped even as growth cooled, muddying the Fed’s path into month-end’s FOMC. Tesla (+6.69%) rebounds on its first Miami robotaxi trading day. Vertex snaps up Crinetics for $10B in a biotech bet, and SK Hynix confirms a record $28B Nasdaq listing, pricing Thursday.
Tag Archives | FOMC
MIB Daily: SOX +3% and AMD +6.61% Confirm a Broadening AI Rally — But Can Cyclical Rotation Survive a Fed Still Split on Rate Cuts?
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MIB Daily: META +8.85% threatens the chip trade from within (SOX -7%) — short semis, own Financials as Thursday’s NFP decides the stagflation exit
META +8.85% on AI cloud reports; global semi selloff (KLAC -11.8%, MU -10.57%, SOX -7%) split Q3’s opening session. Atlanta Fed cut GDPNow to 1.2% from 2.5% — 2026’s largest single-day revision — as ADP missed at 98K; Thursday’s NFP is the binary risk event. Warsh at ECB Sintra refused July guidance with hike odds at 54%; 10Y +6 bps to 4.48%. WFC +3.99% on Goldman upgrade and 11% dividend raise as all 32 banks cleared stress tests; Financials +1.61%.
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MIB Daily: AI Capex Cracks, FOMC Unanimously Hawkish — Enterprise Software Long, Memory Short, Iran Oil Binary at $69 Unresolved
OpenAI may delay its IPO to 2027 — WDC -13%, STX -12%, Nasdaq -1.09% — as markets rotated into enterprise software (MSFT +5.71%, PLTR +5.28%). Kashkari flipped to a 2026 hike, completing a unanimous FOMC hawk chorus; the trade deficit exploded to $105.8B vs. $85B, lifting September cut odds to 55%. LLY +7.13% on EU leukemia approval drove healthcare to a record weekly outperformance. Iran struck a Hormuz vessel but oil fell -2.73%. Trump threatened 100% tariffs on DST nations.
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MIB Daily: Good news is bad news — Warsh reprices 2Y to 4.21%, AVGO/GEV defy selloff; can $75 WTI hold when Iran supply returns?
Fed Chair Warsh’s inaugural FOMC strips the easing bias; 9 of 18 members project a 2026 rate hike, dismantling the rate-cut thesis that anchored 2025 equity valuations — S&P -1.21%, 2Y yield to a 14-month high. Retail sales +0.9% handed Warsh hawkish cover; good news is now market-negative. US-Iran peace MOU opens Hormuz, WTI -5% to $75; IEA projects an 8 mb/d 2027 supply glut. AI hardware (AVGO +4.30%, GEV +6.77%) defied the selloff; META -5.44% on AI product executive departure.
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MIB Daily: Semiconductors Declared Most Crowded in History, Then Imploded — Warsh’s Dot-Plot Could Do the Same to Rotation
BofA declared semiconductors the most crowded trade in history — MRVL -9.78%, AMD -7.30%, INTC -8.45% — while the Dow hit its 17th record on Financials and Industrials rotation. Kevin Warsh opens his inaugural FOMC with a rate hold expected but a hawkish dot-plot likely; May housing starts collapsed -15.4% to 1.177M (weakest since 2020) and import prices surged to 6.7% YoY. WTI -5.09% on Iran peace deal repricing. SpaceX acquired Cursor for $60B, crossing a $2.8T valuation to overtake Amazon.
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MIB Daily: Iran’s oil move does what eight months of hawkishness couldn’t — WTI −4.2% to $81 reopens the easing path, PHLX Semi +7.9% confirms AI broadening, and Warsh’s dot-plot Wednesday is the verdict
US-Iran peace deal formalizes Hormuz reopening — WTI −4.2% to $81 unlocks the rate-path debate ahead of Wednesday’s Warsh FOMC. Computex 2026: PHLX Semi +7.9%, MU +11%, WDC +16%; HBM4 sold out through year-end. SPCX +19% Day 2 to $192; $2.5T market cap passes Apple. Fox acquires Roku for $22B; FOXA −16%. Empire State June 5.7 vs. 14.0 exp. — tariff front-running demand reversal confirmed. Housing 26th consecutive sub-50; 35% of builders cutting prices; Starts data due Tuesday.
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MIB Daily: WTI -4% on Iran’s Hormuz MoU, SPCX +19.3% — Does the Deal Close Before Warsh’s Dot-Plot Resets Duration?
Iran’s Hormuz draft deal sent WTI -4% to $84, staging the broadest equity recovery since last week’s CPI shock — S&P +0.50%, 10 of 11 sectors green. SpaceX (SPCX) debuted +19.3% at $161, raising $75B at a $2.1T valuation. The 2-year hit 4.14% — 40 bps above the Fed ceiling — as markets price 47% hike odds ahead of Warsh’s inaugural FOMC. Michigan sentiment beat at 48.9; 5-year inflation expectations dropped 50 bps to 3.4%, giving Warsh cover to hold.
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MIB Daily: Iran deal may be the only kill-shot for 6.5% PPI — WTI -4.43%, SOX +8%, SpaceX SPCX Friday; but two ceasefires failed, and Warsh’s June 16 FOMC resets energy/semis/duration
Iran peace deal erases Wednesday’s stagflation trade — Trump cancels strikes, announces imminent signing; Dow +1.86%, WTI -4.43%, VIX -12%. Semiconductors surge: KLAC +12.86%, SNDK +14.46%, LRCX +12.53% as JP Morgan calls KLAC a triple-earner by 2030. SpaceX prices at $135/share, raises $75B, debuts Friday as SPCX. PPI hits 6.5% YoY while claims rise to 229K — Fed trapped entering next week’s Warsh FOMC. US-China deal declared “done,” rare earths resume, but Beijing calls it only a framework.
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MIB Daily: Stagflation Trap Snaps Shut — CPI 4.2%, WTI Hits $91 on Iran, SMCI -17%; Long Energy/Defensives, June 17 FOMC the Test
May CPI hit 4.2% YoY — a three-year high — making December a near-certain hike and pushing Goldman’s odds to 20%. US-Iran ceasefire collapsed: US struck Iranian air defenses, Iran retaliated, Trump signaled civilian-infrastructure strikes. WTI +4.06% to $91.78 on a seventh straight EIA draw of -7.2M bbl, triple estimates. SMCI -17% on a $7B raise dragged QCOM -6.92%, AVGO -5.12% as SpaceX’s $75B IPO extracts AI-trade liquidity. S&P -1.62%, Dow cracked 50,000; only Consumer Defensives and Energy finished green.
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MIB Daily: Intel Wins Google and NVIDIA in One Day (+11%) — Long Semis and Fiber; Wednesday’s 4.2% CPI and Warsh’s Debut Dare the 8-of-11 Red Market to Hold
Intel landed Google’s 3M+ TPU order and NVIDIA 18A foundry trials Monday, validating its three-year transformation and sending INTC +11%, MU +10%, KLAC/AMAT +9%. Apple reversed a 52-week intraday high to close -1.87% after WWDC revealed Siri AI as a Google Gemini reskin. Wednesday’s May CPI (headline YoY exp. 4.2%) is the last major datapoint before Warsh’s debut FOMC; Israel-Iran re-escalation and WTI near $94 add a stagflationary dimension. Corning (GLW +5.55%) secured Amazon’s AI fiber buildout.
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MIB Weekly: NFP 172K Rate-Shocked the AI Bull Thesis — 53% Hike Odds, $1.77T SpaceX Debuts June 12, and Financials Outperform Semis
May NFP 172K — double consensus — pushed Fed hike odds above 50% for the first time in 2026, snapping the S&P’s nine-week winning streak on its worst day since October as Computex’s AI semiconductor euphoria reversed simultaneously. The Iran arc ran all five sessions — WTI peaking at $96 on US strikes against Qeshm Island before retreating to $90.24 — keeping PCE elevated entering Warsh’s June 16-17 inaugural FOMC, where the rate-regime inflection now enters blackout locked in.
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MIB Daily: NFP 172K Locks Hike Odds at 50%+ Into Fed Blackout — AI Giants Turn to Equity Dilution as Tech Sector Breaks
May NFP 172,000 — double the 85,000 consensus — snapped the S&P’s nine-week winning streak (-2.64%) and pushed Fed hike odds above 50% for the first time in 2026; FOMC blackout begins Saturday. AI semis cratered 11–17% (MRVL -16.74%, MU -13.25%) as Computex euphoria reversed, wiping $1T+. Meta reportedly weighing tens of billions in equity dilution for AI capex; META -5.5%. SpaceX priced $75B IPO at $1.77T valuation, Nasdaq debut June 12. Jun 10 CPI is the last print before Warsh’s June 17 debut.
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MIB Daily: AVGO -12.6% Exposes AI Hardware’s Pricing Trap — Dow ATH Hides Labor Stagflation Heading Into Friday’s NFP
AVGO −12.6% after AI chip guidance ($16B Q3) missed by $1.2B; SOX −2.8%, MU −7.74%. UNH +5.7% on dual BofA/MS upgrades lifted Healthcare +3.06% to drive the Dow to an ATH at 51,562. Ceasefire news cut WTI $3 to $93. Jobless claims 225K (highest since February) confirmed labor softening; Challenger’s 97K May cuts — 40% AI-driven — are a record. IMF extended the US inflation timeline to end-2027 ahead of Warsh’s first FOMC; Friday NFP consensus: 85K.
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MIB Daily: MRVL +33%, S&P 7,600 on Huang’s Computex Crown — Hammack’s Hike Signal Makes Friday’s NFP the Market’s Next Binary
Nvidia’s Jensen Huang named Marvell “the next trillion-dollar company” at Computex — MRVL +33%, chip equipment up 5-7%, S&P 500 crossed 7,600 for the first time. Alphabet’s $80B equity offering to fund AI capex sent GOOGL -4%; Berkshire took a $10B stake. FTC broadened antitrust probe into Microsoft’s cloud/AI bundling (MSFT -4%). JOLTS April surged 731K above consensus as Cleveland Fed’s Hammack warned a rate hike “may soon be appropriate,” pushing 2026 hike odds to 34% with WTI above $93.
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MIB Daily: NVDA Built the 7,600 Record, Iran Is Building the Unwind — WTI at $92 Makes Warsh’s June 16-17 Debut a Rate-Hike Decision
Iran suspended ceasefire talks — WTI +5.5% to $92.18 adds ~35 bps to PCE at 3.8%, complicating Warsh’s June 16-17 FOMC debut. NVDA’s RTX Spark detonated enterprise tech (DELL +10.7%, ORCL +9.9%, IBM +7.6%) while QCOM -8.78% and INTC -4.69% paid the AI-transition toll. S&P crossed 7,600 on a 9-of-11-sector red session as ISM Manufacturing hit a 4-year high of 54.0%. Anthropic filed a confidential S-1 at $965B valuation. Berkshire acquired Taylor Morrison for $6.8B at a 24% premium.
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MIB Daily: DELL +32.8%, Dow 51K — AI capex now structural; market priced growth, Iran deal, and no June hike simultaneously. Overweight tech; hedge the binary
Dell’s AI server blowout — $43.8B revenue, AI revenue +757%, $51.3B backlog — drove DELL +32.8% and the Dow above 51,000 for the first time, with IBM +12.71% on quantum/CHIPS momentum. Chicago PMI surged to 62.7, a 37-month high — Monday’s ISM is the critical confirmation. Bowman and Schmid raised June FOMC hike risk; Schmid floated accelerated QT as a policy tool. Trump’s Iran meeting ended undecided; oil’s 17% monthly loss has a deal priced in — Monday open is binary.
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MIB Daily: Record Day Six, Worst Profit Quarter in Six — PLTR +8.17%, ORCL +6.67%; PCE 3.8% Locks the Fed; Own Government AI, Fade the Grid
S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at all-time records for a sixth straight session — PLTR +8.17%, ORCL +6.67% on JPMorgan’s ‘fourth hyperscaler’ call, AMD +4.55% — while Q1 GDP was revised to 1.6% and corporate profits collapsed -0.4% vs. +5.7% consensus. April PCE held at 3.8% with personal income flat, widening the consumer spending gap. LLY +4.05%: CVS Caremark restored Zepbound and approved oral GLP-1 Foundayo. Anthropic closed $65B at $965B. FOMC split: Williams holds; Musalem warns AI can’t rescue the Fed.
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MIB Weekly: Dow 50,000 on the Day Waller Declared Rate Cuts Dead — WMT’s Guidance Miss Confirms Tariff Squeeze Is Real; QCOM +18%, IBM +16% as AI Rotates to Auto and Quantum
Iran ceasefire optimism crashed WTI 5.7% to below $100 mid-week — lifting the Dow above 50,000 for the first time — but talks stalled Friday on uranium retention, keeping Brent above $100. The same Friday, Fed Governor Waller dropped the easing bias on Warsh’s swearing-in day, with Polymarket pricing a 43% October hike. NVDA validated the AI supercycle (+85% revenue YoY) while QCOM surged +18% on the Stellantis automotive deal and IBM +16% on the CHIPS Act quantum foundry. Walmart’s guidance miss (–7.27%) and UMich’s all-time record low (44.8) confirmed the tariff-and-fuel squeeze is now in corporate income statements.
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MIB Daily: Dow 50,580 ATH While Bonds Price October Hike — Warsh’s June FOMC Test, Inflation De-Anchoring at 3.9%, QCOM’s Automotive Pivot
Dow hit a new record (50,580) on US-Iran diplomatic progress; QCOM surged +11.6% on a Stellantis Snapdragon automotive chip deal. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair while Waller dropped the easing bias — markets now price a two-in-three October rate hike. UMich final May sentiment hit an all-time low of 44.8 with 5-year inflation expectations jumping to 3.9%. MRK +5.6% on Phase III lung cancer win with raised guidance; Walmart C-suite shakeup deepens with two senior departures.
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MIB Daily: WMT –7.3% converts soft data to hard guidance — Flash PMI prices hit 2022 high, IBM wins foundry, NVDA can’t hold its beat
IBM surged +12% on a $1B CHIPS Act quantum foundry award, fueling a broad AI-semiconductor rally. Walmart cratered -7.27%, citing tariffs and fuel in a guidance miss that flags real consumer stress. The Philadelphia Fed collapsed 27 points to -0.4 as new orders turned negative, while Flash PMI input prices hit a post-2022 high. Richmond Fed’s Barkin questioned whether five-plus years above target still justifies the ‘look through’ doctrine. NVDA fell -1.77% despite 85% revenue growth — its fourth post-earnings decline.
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