Tag Archives | recession

Yield Curve inversion suggests mild recession

Download article as PDF There has been acute interest in the inversions currently taking place on the term-spreads around the world: And this comes as no surprise, since more than half of the world’s sovereign yield curves have now inverted… Right now, 70% of the U.S yield-curve cluster comprising the 10/5/3/2/1 year bond yields are […]

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We likely avoided a full yield-curve inversion

Download article as PDF In our early June post “Is the U.S Yield Curve Inversion locked in?” we mused that only portions of the term-spread complex had inverted and most likely would remain that way, allowing us to avoid a full scale term-spread inversion. As the chart below shows, this is indeed the case – […]

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Google Search Trends as Recession Forecasting Tool

Download article as PDF With the emergence of Google as the dominant internet search engine, its search-term usage can provide a real-time view of current public interests in numerous issues such as economics, politics, health and so forth. Thus, if large groups of people are entering certain economically-linked search terms, this could provide a clue […]

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Yield curve inversion forecast update – Dec ’18

Download article as PDF Based on the methodology discussed here we hereby update our U.S Yield-curve inversion forecast and subsequent recession and stock market peak forecasts. All the forecast dates have moved foward by 1 month:

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Yield curve inversion & recession forecast

Download article as PDF There is naturally a lot of focus on the U.S yield-curve at the moment, as it moves relentlessly toward inversion (when short-term rates are higher than long-term rates.) Can the history of the yield-curve inversion provide for useful forecasting as to the start dates of the next U.S recession? The 10’s […]

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U.S Economy remains vulnerable

Download article as PDF It is interesting to see the recent re-appearance of articles relating to flashing warning signals of recession (see here and here and here) It is true that some genuinely troubling signals are starting to make themselves known. Let’s look at some of them. Heavy Duty Truck sales, a reliable long-leading indicator […]

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Unemployment more widespread than thought

Download article as PDF The Total Non-farm Payrolls data made another solid print for the month of July 2016, leading to the assumption that all is good with employment in the U.S: Similarly, if we examine the countrywide Civilian Unemployment Rate, we also get reassuring signs: However, if we dig deeper and examine the per-state […]

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NBER’s Big-4 Indicators had a narrow miss

Download article as PDF Reading through all the positive press about jobs numbers and so forth, its hard to comprehend that the 4 main indicators used by the National Buro of Economic Research (NBER) to determine US recessions, had a narrow miss recently. If you recall from our popular 2012 article, the NBER does not […]

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Labor market not as strong as you think

Download article as PDF The strength of the labor market is constantly being trotted out in defense of the robust status of the US economy, but broad sets of labor data show this not to be the case. First, let us examine a very broad US labor market growth metric: This indicator needs to fall […]

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Risk of U.S Economic Recession

Download article as PDF A raft of analysts, perma-bears and bloggers are playing fast and loose with the R-word again. This is likely to reach a crescendo with the release today of the unexpected large drop in the ISM non-manufacturing survey.  We recall a time in late 2011 when the mainstream perception was that we […]

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Global Slowdown – Does it affect the U.S?

Download article as PDF There is no question that the Global Economy is languishing. Now, with weakness in US economic data starting to filter through, the big question that arises is if the U.S will be dragged down by the global economy. The U.S is a very insular economy and whilst there can be no […]

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Things that go bump in the night

Download article as PDF The U.S economy appears unstoppable right now. Just about every leading and co-incident indicator you can think of is pointing to positive growth. Among the hundreds of indicators we follow for our models on a daily basis, we have discovered a few that are displaying worrying trends and flagging a future recession. […]

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