MIB WEEKLY DIGEST Week of Sep 14–18, 2026 The Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023 and signalled more, sending the 2-year yield up 12.4 bps and the 10-year to its first closes above 5% before a Friday retreat to 4.998%. The Nasdaq 100 (+0.94%) was the only major index higher as an AI-safety essay lifted CrowdStrike 14.95% on the week while chip equipment crashed and then recovered most of the loss. Bank of America’s fee warning […]
Tag Archives | Federal Reserve
MIB Weekly: The Fed Hiked Into a Shock It Can’t Fix, the 10-Year Closed Above 5% and Diesel Hit a Record $6.45 as Banks and AI Borrowers Paid and Memory Makers Won, With a Second Hike in October Still Open
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MIB Daily: The 2-Year Prices a Second Hike While Stocks Carry Zero Premium, Record $6.45 Diesel Is the Inflation the Fed Can’t Reach, and a 10-Year at 4.998% Hits Netflix as Chip Equipment Is Bought
The 10-Year climbed back to 4.998% as the 2-Year jumped 6.4bps and Bank of America warned of a “2022 redux.” The Bank of Japan hiked to 1.25%, a 31-year high — and the yen weakened. WTI fell 2.35% to $99.52 while AAA’s national diesel average hit a record $6.4476. Warren Buffett stepped down as Berkshire chairman at 96. Bitcoin jumped 6.15% above $80,000; Netflix fell 4.67% on a Wells Fargo downgrade. August industrial production stalled as manufacturing output fell 0.3%.
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MIB Daily: A Rate Hike Un-Priced in One Session With No Official Able to Answer, the VIX Down 12.82%, Chips Bid Without News While CoreWeave Fell 4.16% Raising $3.0 Billion, and Three Central Banks Turn by Friday
Markets un-priced Wednesday’s Fed hike in one session — VIX -12.82%, the 10-Year -6.7bps to 4.937%, S&P 500 +1.14%. Chip and AI-infrastructure names took all five top mega-cap gainer slots: Intel +7.62%, AMD +6.30%, Micron +5.50%. Jobless claims fell to 196K; housing missed across the board. The Bank of England held at 3.75% and paused gilt sales for six months. The SEC opened a five-year path for tokenized stocks. CoreWeave fell 4.16% raising $3bn; private rival Crusoe’s $3.9bn round was oversubscribed.
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MIB Daily: The Fed’s First Hike Since 2023 Leaves October a 51-49 Coin-Flip, J.B. Hunt’s Diesel Warning Sinks Transports 2.78% and Banks Find the Hike Doesn’t Pay, So Favour Short Duration Over Rate-Sensitive Cyclicals
The Fed hiked for the first time since 2023 and 16 of 18 officials see more — October is now a coin-flip and the 10-Year closed above 5%. August retail sales smashed forecasts at +1.2% while import prices ran hottest since 2022. Transports sank 2.78% as J.B. Hunt (-13.3%) warned on diesel and driver costs. Goldman (-4.0%) and Huntington (-5.6%) dragged banks. Crude fell 3.4% on Saudi pipeline repair hopes. GE Vernova (+4.8%) and Intel (+4.0%) bucked the tape.
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MIB Daily: The Fed Can Raise Rates but It Cannot Pump Oil, 10Y at 5.006% on a Seventh Straight Rise With WTI +4.10%, as Carlyle Likens AI Lending to Subprime and Crypto’s Rulebook Dies 46-43
The Senate killed crypto market structure 46-43 — Lummis: “I think we’re done. It’s over.” Bitcoin fell 3.84% to $76,058. The 10-year posted its first 5%-handle close, a seventh straight, on the eve of a hike priced at 96%. WTI +4.10% to $105.55 with Saudi’s pipeline up to six weeks from repair; EIA weekly diesel broke $6 at $6.285. Empire State collapsed to 7.6 from 20.60. Carlyle likened AI-infrastructure lending to subprime. Thermo Fisher +4.53%; Wells Fargo cut its S&P target to 7,700.
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MIB Daily: The Market Bought a Meeting, Not a Deal, Rallying Into an 86% Hike as Crude Fell 3%, While Oracle’s Capex Lifted Dell 11.98% and Sank Oracle 1.74%, Sentiment 47.8 Before Wednesday
Hot core CPI (+0.3% MoM) lifted September hike odds to 86%, yet stocks rallied 0.86% and the VIX fell 11.21%. Iran agreed to meet Gulf ministers on Hormuz shipping, sending crude down nearly 3% and ending Brent’s eight-session run. Oracle’s $90-95bn capex guidance detonated AI hardware, Dell +11.98% to a record, HPE +10.70%. Consumer sentiment fell to 47.8, second-lowest since 1952, with one-year inflation expectations at 4.6%. Saudi Arabia shut its only non-Hormuz export pipeline. The Fed decides Wednesday.
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MIB Daily: Oil Hit $103 and Markets Sold It as a Rate Hike, With Saudi Output Down 1.9 mb/d and AI Hardware Dumped Ahead of Oracle’s Beat as Friday’s CPI Decides Whether the Fed Hikes Next Week
WTI closed above $100 for the first time since May, up 7.3% to $103.06; Saudi Arabia told OPEC its August output fell 1.9 mb/d. Stocks fell a fourth day as the 2-year jumped 15 bps on near-70% Fed hike odds. The ECB hiked to 2.50%, citing energy. Platinum sank 7%, silver 6.7%, gold 2.3%. Lam, Intel, Dell and Micron fell ~5% into Oracle’s print; ORCL beat and rose ~7% after hours. Apple gained 3.6% on its $1,999 foldable.
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MIB Daily: A Rate Hike Cannot Refill a Tanker, Brent $101.61 and Record Diesel Two Days Before CPI, AI Silicon Alone Bid as Ten of Eleven Sectors Fell, and the Sell Side Models 2027 at 4.850%
Brent closed above $100 for the first time since July as Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US base in Jordan — ten of eleven sectors fell, Energy alone gained. Yields rose as stocks fell, the 10-year at 4.850%. Retail diesel set an all-time record two days before CPI. Trump banned Canadian alcohol, dairy and motorcycles. Marvell lifted its two-year outlook to $30bn; Alphabet bought 22 years of Finnish nuclear power. Fed hike odds for next week’s meeting: 61%.
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MIB Weekly: The S&P Went Nowhere and Everything Under It Moved, WTI +9.22% With Energy Equities Not Following, SNDK +17.17% vs PANW -10.32%, FICO -16.68% by Directive, September Repriced Three Times, Still a Coin Flip
The September FOMC was repriced three times in five sessions and ended where it started: Barr said hike, Waller said hold, and Friday’s 162,000-payroll blowout against a 56,000 consensus flipped implied odds back to 58-60%. Underneath it, five days of US-Iran exchanges put WTI up 9.22% and took retail diesel to an all-time record $5.850, six days before the CPI on which Waller staked his vote. Technology split in half: Sandisk +17.17% against Palo Alto -10.32%.
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MIB Daily: Payrolls 162K Against 56K Bought a September Hike, the President Demanded Cuts Anyway, and Memory Rallied Regardless as Record $5.850 Diesel Leaves One CPI Print Deciding the Meeting
August payrolls tripled expectations at 162,000 and flipped September back to a coin-flip hike — implied odds 58-60%. The selloff was narrow: Netflix -5.35%, Palantir -4.49%, while memory ran hard (Sandisk +11.90%, Micron +6.10%). Tesla -5.92% as NHTSA opened an audit query into how it self-certified the Cybercab. FICO -16.68% after FHFA opened VantageScore to every GSE lender. Retail diesel set a record $5.850 a gallon, +57.6% year-on-year. Novartis’s Lp(a) drug failed after the close; Amgen and Ionis fell harder.
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MIB Daily: Waller Cut September Hike Odds From 63.2% to Roughly 50% While ISM Prices Paid Hit 72.6, Gold and Bitcoin Rallied With Equities on One Trade, Industrials Led Into a Tariff Date They Do Not Price
Waller put a September hold on the table and hike odds collapsed from 63% to roughly 50% — the S&P jumped 1.06%, the VIX 5.86%. ISM services beat at 55.4 with prices paid at 72.6, and yields fell anyway. NVIDIA confirmed Hugging Face at $12.93 billion. Iran struck Gulf states a second night; WTI hit six-week highs while Energy finished the only red sector. Canadian retaliation lands September 8. Bitcoin added 5.06% and Palantir surged 7.71% on a PwC alliance.
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MIB Daily: Yields Fell and Long-Duration Software Was Sold Anyway, Diesel Runs 54% Above Last Year Into a Split FOMC, and Broadcom Guides $21.7B in AI, So Does 4.818% Hold Through Friday’s Payrolls?
Equities snapped a three-day skid as the 10-year touched 4.818%, highest since November 2023, then reversed; S&P +0.46%, Russell 2000 +1.13%, VIX -6.79%. ADP added just 38,000 jobs before Friday’s payrolls. A judge spared Google’s ad exchange from divestiture. Chevron committed $7 billion to Venezuela as Washington widened sanctions relief. Nvidia rose 3.21% on a re-reported $14 billion Hugging Face deal. Uber cut 10% of staff as Delivery Hero backed its bid. Diesel closed 12.8 cents below its all-time high.
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MIB Daily: A VIX at 14.92 Says Nobody Is Paying for the Hormuz Tail, WTI +3.50% and Utilities Uncapped With PG&E -18%, While the Two-Year Refused to Confirm a 72% Hike Bet and AI Became the Hiding Place
US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s overnight retaliation sent WTI up 3.50% to $86.32 and European gas to its highest since January 2023. Nine of eleven sectors closed red. California’s wildfire bill omitted the liability cap: PG&E -18%, Edison -23%. The FTC and 22 states sued Amazon over a $20bn ad-auction scheme; AMZN -2.50%. Warsh went hawkish at the G20 but the two-year refused to confirm. Aon bought USI for $17bn, all debt-funded.
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MIB Weekly: The S&P Rose 0.49% and Told You Nothing, Warsh Sent the 2Y Up 12.2bp and Hike Odds to 68%, Chicago PMI Hit 47.1, Gold and Semicap Took the Hit, Marvell Paid 10.28% for 90bp of Margin
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole keynote to say the central bank has “more work to do” on inflation, and the two-year Treasury yield ended the week 12.2 basis points higher at 4.354% — September is now a live hike meeting, with Polymarket’s 2026 hike contract up twelve points to 68%. The damage landed on gold (−3.50%) and the Russell 2000 (−1.51%), not the S&P 500 (+0.49%). Friday’s rate move then took semiconductor equipment down 4–5%.
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MIB Daily: The Index Lied, Warsh’s 12.2bp Two-Year Move Hit Gold -3.34% and Semi Equipment -5% While the S&P Held, and Chicago PMI at 47.1 Asks Whether the Hike Trade Survives Next Week’s ISM
Warsh’s Jackson Hole debut put a September hike back on the table: the two-year jumped 12.2bp to 4.354%, its biggest day since June. Gold -3.34%, silver -4.31% and the Russell -1.39% took the hit while the S&P shrugged at -0.25%. He also retired forward guidance outright. Chicago PMI cratered to 47.1. PayPal -12.71% after Advent and Stripe walked from a $53bn bid it had already rejected. Semis unwound 4-5%; Amazon +3.95%. BioNTech -8.37% on a halted cancer trial.
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MIB Daily: One Sector Bought the Rally on the Day Washington Proposed Taxing It, Tech +3.09% Against an NYSE Down 0.38%, Three Fed Hawks Moved the Two-Year 0.8bp, PANW +12.83% on an Unsigned Deal, Warsh Friday
Technology surged 3.09% and carried the S&P 500 up 0.72% — while the NYSE Composite fell and eight of eleven sectors closed red. Cleveland’s Hammack says “now is the time to act” on a rate hike; the two-year moved 0.8bp. July’s goods trade gap blew out to $118.8B on a 68.7% jump in Korean chip imports — the same flow Washington is weighing tariffing. Palo Alto +12.83% on deal reports. Nvidia is said to be buying Hugging Face for $12.9B.
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MIB Daily: September Prices a 38% Hike, Not a Cut, With the 2-Year at 4.209% and the 10-Year Up 1bp on 3.7% PCE, a 4.6% Atlanta Fed Nowcast Splits a 1.5% Q2, and Record $4 Gas Lands With Crude Lower Before Warsh
Markets barely moved on a hot headline PCE — but futures now price a September rate HIKE near 38%, not a cut. Meta paid $16.7bn and accepted a decade-long two-hour daily cap on teen accounts. America is heading for its first $4 Labor Day on record, and it’s a refining story, not a crude one. Boston Scientific’s cyberattack has stopped it shipping orders worldwide. Atlanta Fed’s Q3 nowcast turned back up to 4.6%. Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote lands Friday.
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MIB Daily: The Disinflation Is in Crude and the Inflation Moved to Diesel, WTI -4.92% to $80.83 While the Crack Hit a Record $99.125, and Equities Bought AMD +4.91% Through a 68.2 Expectations Print
Crude cratered nearly 5% — the Iran sanctions were weaker than feared and Oman is brokering a Hormuz corridor. AMD jumped 4.91% on a Strong Buy upgrade, carrying semis into Nvidia’s Wednesday print. Consumer Expectations fell to 68.2, below the Conference Board’s own recession line; the market bought chips anyway. Canada retaliates dollar-for-dollar on C$27.6bn from September 8. Dick’s fell 30.68% and took Nike and Lululemon with it. Discount-rate minutes show four district boards wanted a hike.
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MIB Weekly: Treasury’s Backstop Lasted Twenty-Four Hours, Chips Fell 5.5% Twice With 30 of 30 Down, a Tariff Pause Was Never Published, and Gold and Bitcoin Took What Semis Lost
Treasury doubled its long-bond buybacks on Wednesday and the market unwound the entire move by Thursday’s close, leaving the S&P 500 down 1.43% and both yields higher on the week. The chip complex fell roughly 5.5% twice in three sessions, Intel -12.13%, while Merck added 12.30% on the first positive Phase 3 for an individualised cancer vaccine, making Healthcare the week’s second-best sector. Bitcoin closed +23.18%, gold +5.44%, and Friday’s flash PMI hit a 52-month high.
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MIB Daily: The Debt Manager Rescued the Long End, Not the Fed, as Chips Fell 5.6% With 30 of 30 Down and Nebius -9.87% Repriced AI’s Funding End, Leaving Healthcare +3.37% and Metals +3.62% Hostage to Rates
Treasury doubled its long-bond buybacks and the tape turned: 10-year -6.8 bps, dollar -0.86%, gold +3.60%. Not a Fed trade: the July minutes showed several members ready to hike, nobody for a cut, and the market shrugged. Chips fell 5.6% a second day, all 30 down. Merck +12.60% on the first Phase 3 win for a cancer vaccine. Marvell handed Google a $12.2bn warrant; Broadcom paid -4.61%. Canada’s 50% tariffs pause three days; Bitcoin +6.25% on an SEC framework.
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