Iran suspended ceasefire talks — WTI +5.5% to $92.18 adds ~35 bps to PCE at 3.8%, complicating Warsh’s June 16-17 FOMC debut. NVDA’s RTX Spark detonated enterprise tech (DELL +10.7%, ORCL +9.9%, IBM +7.6%) while QCOM -8.78% and INTC -4.69% paid the AI-transition toll. S&P crossed 7,600 on a 9-of-11-sector red session as ISM Manufacturing hit a 4-year high of 54.0%. Anthropic filed a confidential S-1 at $965B valuation. Berkshire acquired Taylor Morrison for $6.8B at a 24% premium.
Tag Archives | Qualcomm
MIB Daily: NVDA Built the 7,600 Record, Iran Is Building the Unwind — WTI at $92 Makes Warsh’s June 16-17 Debut a Rate-Hike Decision
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MIB Daily: Oil Crashed on a “Fabrication,” Cook Still Wants to Hike, SNOW Surged 34% — Stagflation Verdict Thursday
Iran state media’s Hormuz peace framework crashed WTI 4.69% to $89.49 and lifted the Dow to record 50,670; the White House called it a “complete fabrication.” Fed Governor Cook issued 2026’s clearest hike signal — “I am prepared to raise rates” — with April PCE at 3.8% due Thursday. Snowflake surged 34% on record sequential growth and a $6B AWS deal; QCOM shed 6% after a near-30% weekly run. Thursday’s GDP, PCE, and durables are the year’s peak positioning risk.
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MIB Daily: Dow 50,580 ATH While Bonds Price October Hike — Warsh’s June FOMC Test, Inflation De-Anchoring at 3.9%, QCOM’s Automotive Pivot
Dow hit a new record (50,580) on US-Iran diplomatic progress; QCOM surged +11.6% on a Stellantis Snapdragon automotive chip deal. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair while Waller dropped the easing bias — markets now price a two-in-three October rate hike. UMich final May sentiment hit an all-time low of 44.8 with 5-year inflation expectations jumping to 3.9%. MRK +5.6% on Phase III lung cancer win with raised guidance; Walmart C-suite shakeup deepens with two senior departures.
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MIB Weekly: Stagflation Confirmed, AI Capex Accelerating, Summit Resolved Nothing — Own Energy & AI Infrastructure, Sell Rate-Sensitive Duration Through the Fall Diplomatic Window
WTI crude surged +11.52% to $105.48 as US-Iran ceasefire talks collapsed — “garbage” per Trump Tuesday — while CPI 3.8% and PPI 6.0% pushed rate-hike odds from under 3% to over 50% in 72 hours and the 10Y to a one-year high of 4.601%. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair inheriting this stagflation stack. The Trump-Xi summit briefly drove records (S&P 7,500, Dow 50,000 Thursday) before crashing Friday on zero binding deals — tariffs, chips, and Taiwan all unresolved.
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MIB: The Cut Consensus Is Dead — Can Warsh’s Fed Avoid a Hike Without a Bond Market Tantrum?
April CPI hit 3.8% — hottest since May 2023 — eliminating all 2026 cut bets and lifting hike odds to 30%; QCOM crashed 11.5% as Monday’s record highs evaporated. WTI settled at $102/bbl (+4.1%) with Goldman warning on downstream product shortages from naphtha to aviation fuel. Goolsbee explicitly tabled rate hikes; Warsh’s Fed Chair vote is Wednesday. UNH’s EPS beat (+9.7%) lifted Healthcare to S&P top sector. $166B in tariff refunds began flowing back to Walmart, Target, and Nike.
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MIB: Hormuz Collapse + Chip Rally + Goldman’s Hawkish Pivot — Three Forces Reshaping the 2026 Portfolio
WTI surged 3.1% to $98.40 as Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire ‘on life support’ — Aramco warns Hormuz disruption could extend to year-end. A 90-day US-China tariff pause sent QCOM +8.4% to an ATH ahead of the Trump-Xi Beijing summit May 13–15. Goldman pushed its first Fed cut to December 2026, assigning 44% odds to a hike by April 2027. CPI tomorrow (+3.7% exp.) is the week’s pivot. Lower-income consumers are in discretionary contraction; UMich sentiment is at a 74-year low.
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MIB Digest: The AI Stampede Hits Record Highs While the Consumer Hits a 74-Year Sentiment Low
Iran peace optimism crashed WTI 9% Wednesday before ceasefire violations partially reversed it — oil fell –7.73% WoW, consumer gas near $4.55. Into that geopolitical tape, AMD’s Q1 Data Center revenue (+57% YoY) and the preliminary Apple–Intel foundry deal ignited AI semiconductors: Micron crossed $800B, INTC surged 25%, Nasdaq 100 +5.50% while the NYSE Composite fell –0.43%. April NFP exploded to +115K (vs. 65K consensus), cementing Fed on hold through 2027 — but Michigan Consumer Sentiment crashed to a 74-year record low, and a simultaneous hawkish Fed pivot by Musalem, Goolsbee, and Hammack put rate hike optionality on the table.
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MIB: Ceasefire Collapse, Productivity Miss, and FOMC Dissent Fracture the Bull Case
Iran accused US forces of ceasefire violations, reversing Wednesday’s record rally — WTI +2.71% to $97.66, S&P 500 –0.38%, 10-of-11 sectors red. Q1 nonfarm productivity hit +0.8% (biggest miss since 2023) with ULC at +2.3% and real wages turning negative. Hammack called the FOMC’s rate-cut signal “misleading,” formalizing the 4-dissenter bloc — hike optionality is live. Challenger April cuts +38% MoM with AI driving 26%, collapsing Friday’s NFP consensus to ~60K. Boeing CEO joins Trump’s China delegation; 600-aircraft deal speculation lifts BA.
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MIB Digest: Hormuz Stagflation, Nasdaq 25K, and the Week AI Stopped Taking Capex on Faith
The Strait of Hormuz blockade sent WTI +7.94% and gasoline to a 4-year high of $4.30/gal, while the FOMC’s historic 8-4 split collapsed rate-cut probability from 59% to ~22.5% — stagflation confirmed as the Fed’s base-case bind. Alphabet’s Cloud +63% YoY drove Nasdaq above 25,000 for the first time; Meta’s $145B capex raise was punished -8.65% — the week AI demanded proof of ROI. Eli Lilly: Mounjaro $8.66B (+125% YoY), guidance raised to $82–85B.
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MIB: Paper-Thin S&P/Nasdaq Records as Hormuz Re-Escalates, OpenAI Decouples from Microsoft, & Powell Convenes His Final FOMC
S&P 500 (+0.12%) and Nasdaq (+0.01%) eked out paper-thin records as Brent spiked above $101 on stalled Hormuz talks. Trump cancelled Pakistan envoys; IEA warned supply won’t recover for two years. Qualcomm surged 12% on a report OpenAI is building an AI smartphone chip with QCOM and MediaTek. Microsoft-OpenAI exclusivity ended, freeing OpenAI to deploy on AWS/GCP. Powell’s likely final FOMC opens Tuesday; Warsh Senate vote Wednesday. Verizon posted its first positive Q1 phone adds in 13 years.
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