Crude plunged 7.44% to $96.37 after Trump said there is “no rush” to resume fighting Iran. Oracle (ORCL) fell 8.76% on a $20 billion stock-and-bond raise, and Marvell (MRVL) sank 12.72% on its $115 billion all-stock Lumentum deal. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.39%, ending 10.4% below its October 6 close, while the Dow rose 0.41%. ISM manufacturing beat at 55.5 and GDPNow rose to 3.7%, keeping December hike odds at 76%. Anthropic’s IPO filing showed $895 billion of purchase commitments.
Tag Archives | Intel
MIB Daily: AI Starts Selling Stock to Fund Itself as Oracle Raises $20B and Marvell Pays in Paper, While a 7% Oil Plunge on Iran Talk Fails to Cool 76% December Hike Odds and Airlines Rally
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MIB Weekly: The AI Bill Came Due as Intel Fell 28.58% and Alphabet 12.64%, Healthcare and Treasuries Won While Gold Failed as a Haven, Can a Split Fed Still Hike in December?
Intel’s 28.58% one-day collapse and Alphabet’s worst session since listing ended a week that began with an AI rally, leaving the Nasdaq 100 down 1.98% while the Russell 2000 gained 1.29%. Meta’s $37.5 billion equity sale, Microsoft’s $25 billion-plus bond deal and Amazon’s $42.4 billion free-cash outflow made AI funding the market’s central question. The Fed held with two dissents for a hike, yet the 10-year yield fell 7.1 bps.
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MIB Daily: Intel’s 28.58% Plunge Reprices AI Leaders as Three Fed Presidents Push Hikes and Gold Sinks 3.63%, Leaving Treasuries the Only Hedge, With a December Hike Near 76% Awaiting Payrolls
Intel (INTC) plunged 28.58%, dragging AMD down 10.88% and leaving the Nasdaq 100 down 3.46% and 9.1% below its October 6 close. Three Fed presidents argued for more hikes, yet the 10-year yield fell 6.1 bps. Limpet mines hit a Hormuz tanker as Brent rose 1.39% to $112.34. Gold sank 3.63% and silver fell 6.20%, removing a haven. Binance’s $6.3 billion theft drew CFTC fire, and Bitcoin fell 2.50%. Global Payments jumped 12.97% on buyout talk.
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MIB Daily: Free Cash Flow Is the New AI Scorecard and Alphabet Failed It, Erasing $500 Billion as Healthcare and Real Estate Led, the 10-Year Fell Below 5% on a 3.4% GDP Beat and Crude Held Above $100 on Iran Risk
Alphabet’s worst day since its 2004 listing (-12.64%) on negative free cash flow erased roughly $500 billion and dragged the Nasdaq 100 down 1.38%, yet four in five S&P 500 stocks rose. Q3 GDP beat at 3.4% and PCE inflation matched at 3.6%; the 10-year fell 11.7 bps to 4.934%. Microsoft launched a $25 billion-plus bond sale. DoorDash (+5.61%) agreed to buy Instacart for $17 billion. CENTCOM briefed Trump on Iran military options; crude ended flat above $100.
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MIB Daily: The AI Boom Now Pays for Itself With Stock, as Anthropic Files and Meta Raises $35 Billion While Chip Suppliers Rally, the 2-Year Prices a Hike Before Warsh, and Brazil ADRs Crash
Anthropic filed its public S-1 for a Nasdaq IPO as ANT, and the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.09% as AI hardware led. Meta (META) fell 1.88% on a roughly $35 billion stock offering to fund its AI build-out. The 2-year yield rose 3.0 bps two days before Wednesday’s Fed decision. Lula’s fourth term sank Brazilian assets, with Petrobras (PBR) down 13.99%. WTI fell 1.60% as regional envoys opened talks in Tehran. Tesla (TSLA) jumped 5.21% on a Barclays upgrade.
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MIB Daily: Wall Street Bought AI Again but Bonds Didn’t, Amazon Jumped 4.98% While a 5.145% 10-Year Sank Housing, REITs and Utilities, as Gulf Risk Builds Ahead of Meta’s Capex Test
Amazon jumped 4.98% after Morgan Stanley named it a Top Pick, and the SMH chip ETF snapped a nine-session slide as the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.17%. Only three of 11 sectors gained: the 10-year yield climbed 5.5 bps to 5.145% and utilities fell 1.86%. Builder confidence hit a 14-year low. Trump waived the Graham Act’s Russia tariffs, and Houthis claimed unverified strikes on Aramco’s Yanbu site. Anthropic is reportedly in talks for about $45 billion more Nscale compute.
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MIB Weekly: Markets Paid for AI’s Users, Not Its Builders, as OpenAI Doubts Sank Chips and Staples Led, Bonds Shrugged Off Fed Hike Talk and Brent Held $104, Leaving Wednesday’s CPI to Set the Date
An OpenAI revenue scare split the AI trade: the FT’s ~$50 billion run-rate sank chipmakers and Bloomberg’s $70 billion target revived only software, leaving Intel -12.26% and Palantir +10.75% on the week. The S&P 500 still gained 1.15% after its first close above 7,800, carried by staples, utilities and energy. The 10-year hit a 24-year closing high of 5.315% before auctions drew buyers and the Fed minutes named AI borrowing as a rival for capital.
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MIB Daily: OpenAI’s $70B Saved Software but Not the Chips, Long-Run Inflation Expectations Hit 3.5% and Lifted the 2-Year, and Washington Set a Hearing on Firing Fed Governor Cook
Software lifted the S&P 500 0.59% back above 7,800 after Bloomberg said OpenAI expects at least $70B in annualized revenue by year-end, but Intel and AMD kept sliding. Michigan long-run inflation expectations hit 3.5%, the highest since May, while the 2-year yield rose 3.7 bps. The White House set a Nov 5 hearing on whether to remove Fed Governor Cook. Treasury licensed Russian diesel imports through April 2027. Apple reportedly cut iPhone 18 Pro component orders at least 15%.
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MIB Daily: OpenAI’s $20B Revenue Gap Asks Who Pays for AI, Sinking Chips as Gulf Shut-Ins Push Crude to $91, SpaceX Hits the Carriers and Bonds Rally Into Fed Hike Talk Before CPI
An FT report that OpenAI’s revenue run-rate sits about $20 billion below earlier signals sank chipmakers, dragging the Nasdaq 100 down 1.39% as Oracle fell 5.48%. Hurricane Isaias shut in 63% of Gulf oil output, and WTI settled up $3.21 at $91.49. Trump ruled out striking Iran before the midterms. Waller and Musalem both signaled more hikes, yet the 10-year fell 5.9 bps. After the bell, SpaceX agreed to buy nationwide 800 MHz spectrum, and AT&T fell 6.75% after hours.
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MIB Weekly: The Economy Was Too Strong to Save the Bond Market, 10-Year at a 2007 High and October Odds Near 70%, Agents Priced by Usage, the Build-Out Short of Power, the Median Stock 18.6% Below
The 10-year Treasury closed Thursday at 5.225%, its highest since 2007, after a flash PMI at 58.4 and eight Fed speakers pushed October hike odds to roughly 70% — and yet the S&P 500 finished up 1.21%. That gain belonged to almost nobody: the Nasdaq 100 rose 3.25% on Meta (+12.90%), Qualcomm (+13.65%), Intel (+13.26%) and AMD (+12.65%), while the NYSE Composite and the Russell 2000 both fell. Oracle lost 7.12% on a force-majeure notice over its New Mexico data centre.
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MIB Daily: Stocks Priced the End of the Oil Shock and the Fed Did Not, as Brent Slipped Below $100, Musalem Eyed More Hikes and Intel and Meta Jumped 11%+ With No Dated Catalyst Before the Trump-Xi Summit
Crude fell a fourth session, Brent slipping below $100 (-3.77%) as Saudi tankers massed in the Gulf and Iran relayed its Hormuz terms; the S&P 500 rose 1.49% to within 0.4% of its record. Intel (+12.17%), AMD (+9.95%) and Meta (+11.34%) lifted the Nasdaq 100 2.83%. Fed’s Musalem said more hikes are likely; the 2-year rose as the 10-year fell 4.2 bps. Paramount settled the states’ suit, sending WBD up 10.79%. Bitcoin jumped 7.57% to an eight-month high.
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MIB Daily: A Rate Hike Un-Priced in One Session With No Official Able to Answer, the VIX Down 12.82%, Chips Bid Without News While CoreWeave Fell 4.16% Raising $3.0 Billion, and Three Central Banks Turn by Friday
Markets un-priced Wednesday’s Fed hike in one session — VIX -12.82%, the 10-Year -6.7bps to 4.937%, S&P 500 +1.14%. Chip and AI-infrastructure names took all five top mega-cap gainer slots: Intel +7.62%, AMD +6.30%, Micron +5.50%. Jobless claims fell to 196K; housing missed across the board. The Bank of England held at 3.75% and paused gilt sales for six months. The SEC opened a five-year path for tokenized stocks. CoreWeave fell 4.16% raising $3bn; private rival Crusoe’s $3.9bn round was oversubscribed.
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MIB Daily: The Fed’s First Hike Since 2023 Leaves October a 51-49 Coin-Flip, J.B. Hunt’s Diesel Warning Sinks Transports 2.78% and Banks Find the Hike Doesn’t Pay, So Favour Short Duration Over Rate-Sensitive Cyclicals
The Fed hiked for the first time since 2023 and 16 of 18 officials see more — October is now a coin-flip and the 10-Year closed above 5%. August retail sales smashed forecasts at +1.2% while import prices ran hottest since 2022. Transports sank 2.78% as J.B. Hunt (-13.3%) warned on diesel and driver costs. Goldman (-4.0%) and Huntington (-5.6%) dragged banks. Crude fell 3.4% on Saudi pipeline repair hopes. GE Vernova (+4.8%) and Intel (+4.0%) bucked the tape.
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MIB Daily: Oil Hit $103 and Markets Sold It as a Rate Hike, With Saudi Output Down 1.9 mb/d and AI Hardware Dumped Ahead of Oracle’s Beat as Friday’s CPI Decides Whether the Fed Hikes Next Week
WTI closed above $100 for the first time since May, up 7.3% to $103.06; Saudi Arabia told OPEC its August output fell 1.9 mb/d. Stocks fell a fourth day as the 2-year jumped 15 bps on near-70% Fed hike odds. The ECB hiked to 2.50%, citing energy. Platinum sank 7%, silver 6.7%, gold 2.3%. Lam, Intel, Dell and Micron fell ~5% into Oracle’s print; ORCL beat and rose ~7% after hours. Apple gained 3.6% on its $1,999 foldable.
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MIB Daily: Bonds Refused to Rally as Brent Hit $99.28, Novartis -13.93% Dragged Healthcare to -2.54%, and Capital Bought the Constraint Again, Leaving Friday’s CPI to Settle a 60% Hike
Houthi strikes halted Saudi energy operations and pushed Brent within a dollar of $100 — stocks fell, yields rose, and that combination says inflation, not recession. Novartis cratered 13.93% on its second Phase III miss in five days, dragging Amgen down 10.08%. GPT-6 Astra’s rollout finished over the holiday and enterprise software de-rated: ServiceNow -4.99%, Shopify -7.57%. Amazon handed Qualcomm a warrant over 25 million shares. Consumer credit smashed estimates; balances hit records. CPI Friday, FOMC next week.
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MIB Weekly: Treasury’s Backstop Lasted Twenty-Four Hours, Chips Fell 5.5% Twice With 30 of 30 Down, a Tariff Pause Was Never Published, and Gold and Bitcoin Took What Semis Lost
Treasury doubled its long-bond buybacks on Wednesday and the market unwound the entire move by Thursday’s close, leaving the S&P 500 down 1.43% and both yields higher on the week. The chip complex fell roughly 5.5% twice in three sessions, Intel -12.13%, while Merck added 12.30% on the first positive Phase 3 for an individualised cancer vaccine, making Healthcare the week’s second-best sector. Bitcoin closed +23.18%, gold +5.44%, and Friday’s flash PMI hit a 52-month high.
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MIB Daily: One Analysis, No New Demand Data, 5.4% Off the Chips, Software Still Green, GDPNow Cut to 4.03%, and a 56% No-Landing Book That Argues for Rotating Within Risk Assets Rather Than Adding
A Wall Street Journal tally of $3 trillion in off-balance-sheet AI commitments gutted the memory complex — SNDK -9%, MU -7%, chips -5.4% — and dragged the Nasdaq 100 down 1.68%. Trump says no Iran talks; a bulk carrier was struck inside Hormuz and crude rose a third session. Housing starts collapsed 12.4%. Section 338 tariffs on Canada bite at midnight. GDPNow’s Q3 estimate has lost a third in a fortnight. Gold fell 1.79% anyway — the hedge failed.
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MIB Daily: Crude’s 5th Gain and EIA’s 8.5% Diesel Hike Mean CPI Won’t Be Reassurance — Payrolls Decelerate a 6th Week as Chip-Equipment (KLA +4.01%) Outruns AI Platforms (GOOGL -3.84%)
Hormuz transits collapse to six vessels against a pre-war 140 — crude posts a fifth straight gain and equities slip into tomorrow’s CPI. The EIA picks the same day to raise its 2026 diesel forecast 8.5% and sees crude stocks below the five-year low all year. Private payrolls decelerate for a sixth week; the front end barely blinked. Alphabet -3.84% as 300 French publishers file over AI Overviews. Intel prices an upsized $20B raise at $95 on $100B of demand.
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MIB Daily: Oil’s 5% Hormuz shock reprices inflation risk as chipmakers tap $500B in outside AI financing and a second chokepoint breaks the rerouting hedge — does September turn stagflationary after Wednesday’s CPI?
Oil ripped 5.2% after Iran demanded the US blockade lift before Hormuz reopens — Energy +3.61%, the S&P still closed flat. Yields and VIX rose together: an inflation scare, not a growth one, two days before CPI. Cleveland’s Hammack wants more than one hike. Chips led the downside — Nvidia -2.87% on $500B of financing, Intel -4.04% on a $15B raise — while TSMC’s July revenue hit a record. Palo Alto and CrowdStrike set records. Vertex jumped 6% on a rival’s failure.
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MIB Weekly: The Market Outvoted Five Fed Hawks and Bought a Record on a 23K Job Loss — AI Now Pays for Capital Discipline, Not Growth, and a Beat Buys Nothing; Wednesday’s CPI Can Undo All of It
The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,757.46, up 3.57% on the week, after July payrolls contracted 23,000 against an +83,000 consensus and priced a September rate hike out of the front end — over the objections of five Fed officials who spent four sessions arguing for one. Crude round-tripped 8.8% lower on the Hormuz reopening trade, leaving Energy down 3.66% with the strait still shut. Palantir surged 39.78%; AMD beat on every line and fell 7% on its capex.
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