The 10-year Treasury closed Thursday at 5.225%, its highest since 2007, after a flash PMI at 58.4 and eight Fed speakers pushed October hike odds to roughly 70% — and yet the S&P 500 finished up 1.21%. That gain belonged to almost nobody: the Nasdaq 100 rose 3.25% on Meta (+12.90%), Qualcomm (+13.65%), Intel (+13.26%) and AMD (+12.65%), while the NYSE Composite and the Russell 2000 both fell. Oracle lost 7.12% on a force-majeure notice over its New Mexico data centre.
Tag Archives | Intel
MIB Weekly: The Economy Was Too Strong to Save the Bond Market, 10-Year at a 2007 High and October Odds Near 70%, Agents Priced by Usage, the Build-Out Short of Power, the Median Stock 18.6% Below
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MIB Daily: Stocks Priced the End of the Oil Shock and the Fed Did Not, as Brent Slipped Below $100, Musalem Eyed More Hikes and Intel and Meta Jumped 11%+ With No Dated Catalyst Before the Trump-Xi Summit
Crude fell a fourth session, Brent slipping below $100 (-3.77%) as Saudi tankers massed in the Gulf and Iran relayed its Hormuz terms; the S&P 500 rose 1.49% to within 0.4% of its record. Intel (+12.17%), AMD (+9.95%) and Meta (+11.34%) lifted the Nasdaq 100 2.83%. Fed’s Musalem said more hikes are likely; the 2-year rose as the 10-year fell 4.2 bps. Paramount settled the states’ suit, sending WBD up 10.79%. Bitcoin jumped 7.57% to an eight-month high.
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MIB Daily: A Rate Hike Un-Priced in One Session With No Official Able to Answer, the VIX Down 12.82%, Chips Bid Without News While CoreWeave Fell 4.16% Raising $3.0 Billion, and Three Central Banks Turn by Friday
Markets un-priced Wednesday’s Fed hike in one session — VIX -12.82%, the 10-Year -6.7bps to 4.937%, S&P 500 +1.14%. Chip and AI-infrastructure names took all five top mega-cap gainer slots: Intel +7.62%, AMD +6.30%, Micron +5.50%. Jobless claims fell to 196K; housing missed across the board. The Bank of England held at 3.75% and paused gilt sales for six months. The SEC opened a five-year path for tokenized stocks. CoreWeave fell 4.16% raising $3bn; private rival Crusoe’s $3.9bn round was oversubscribed.
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MIB Daily: The Fed’s First Hike Since 2023 Leaves October a 51-49 Coin-Flip, J.B. Hunt’s Diesel Warning Sinks Transports 2.78% and Banks Find the Hike Doesn’t Pay, So Favour Short Duration Over Rate-Sensitive Cyclicals
The Fed hiked for the first time since 2023 and 16 of 18 officials see more — October is now a coin-flip and the 10-Year closed above 5%. August retail sales smashed forecasts at +1.2% while import prices ran hottest since 2022. Transports sank 2.78% as J.B. Hunt (-13.3%) warned on diesel and driver costs. Goldman (-4.0%) and Huntington (-5.6%) dragged banks. Crude fell 3.4% on Saudi pipeline repair hopes. GE Vernova (+4.8%) and Intel (+4.0%) bucked the tape.
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MIB Daily: Oil Hit $103 and Markets Sold It as a Rate Hike, With Saudi Output Down 1.9 mb/d and AI Hardware Dumped Ahead of Oracle’s Beat as Friday’s CPI Decides Whether the Fed Hikes Next Week
WTI closed above $100 for the first time since May, up 7.3% to $103.06; Saudi Arabia told OPEC its August output fell 1.9 mb/d. Stocks fell a fourth day as the 2-year jumped 15 bps on near-70% Fed hike odds. The ECB hiked to 2.50%, citing energy. Platinum sank 7%, silver 6.7%, gold 2.3%. Lam, Intel, Dell and Micron fell ~5% into Oracle’s print; ORCL beat and rose ~7% after hours. Apple gained 3.6% on its $1,999 foldable.
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MIB Daily: Bonds Refused to Rally as Brent Hit $99.28, Novartis -13.93% Dragged Healthcare to -2.54%, and Capital Bought the Constraint Again, Leaving Friday’s CPI to Settle a 60% Hike
Houthi strikes halted Saudi energy operations and pushed Brent within a dollar of $100 — stocks fell, yields rose, and that combination says inflation, not recession. Novartis cratered 13.93% on its second Phase III miss in five days, dragging Amgen down 10.08%. GPT-6 Astra’s rollout finished over the holiday and enterprise software de-rated: ServiceNow -4.99%, Shopify -7.57%. Amazon handed Qualcomm a warrant over 25 million shares. Consumer credit smashed estimates; balances hit records. CPI Friday, FOMC next week.
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MIB Weekly: Treasury’s Backstop Lasted Twenty-Four Hours, Chips Fell 5.5% Twice With 30 of 30 Down, a Tariff Pause Was Never Published, and Gold and Bitcoin Took What Semis Lost
Treasury doubled its long-bond buybacks on Wednesday and the market unwound the entire move by Thursday’s close, leaving the S&P 500 down 1.43% and both yields higher on the week. The chip complex fell roughly 5.5% twice in three sessions, Intel -12.13%, while Merck added 12.30% on the first positive Phase 3 for an individualised cancer vaccine, making Healthcare the week’s second-best sector. Bitcoin closed +23.18%, gold +5.44%, and Friday’s flash PMI hit a 52-month high.
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MIB Daily: One Analysis, No New Demand Data, 5.4% Off the Chips, Software Still Green, GDPNow Cut to 4.03%, and a 56% No-Landing Book That Argues for Rotating Within Risk Assets Rather Than Adding
A Wall Street Journal tally of $3 trillion in off-balance-sheet AI commitments gutted the memory complex — SNDK -9%, MU -7%, chips -5.4% — and dragged the Nasdaq 100 down 1.68%. Trump says no Iran talks; a bulk carrier was struck inside Hormuz and crude rose a third session. Housing starts collapsed 12.4%. Section 338 tariffs on Canada bite at midnight. GDPNow’s Q3 estimate has lost a third in a fortnight. Gold fell 1.79% anyway — the hedge failed.
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MIB Daily: Crude’s 5th Gain and EIA’s 8.5% Diesel Hike Mean CPI Won’t Be Reassurance — Payrolls Decelerate a 6th Week as Chip-Equipment (KLA +4.01%) Outruns AI Platforms (GOOGL -3.84%)
Hormuz transits collapse to six vessels against a pre-war 140 — crude posts a fifth straight gain and equities slip into tomorrow’s CPI. The EIA picks the same day to raise its 2026 diesel forecast 8.5% and sees crude stocks below the five-year low all year. Private payrolls decelerate for a sixth week; the front end barely blinked. Alphabet -3.84% as 300 French publishers file over AI Overviews. Intel prices an upsized $20B raise at $95 on $100B of demand.
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MIB Daily: Oil’s 5% Hormuz shock reprices inflation risk as chipmakers tap $500B in outside AI financing and a second chokepoint breaks the rerouting hedge — does September turn stagflationary after Wednesday’s CPI?
Oil ripped 5.2% after Iran demanded the US blockade lift before Hormuz reopens — Energy +3.61%, the S&P still closed flat. Yields and VIX rose together: an inflation scare, not a growth one, two days before CPI. Cleveland’s Hammack wants more than one hike. Chips led the downside — Nvidia -2.87% on $500B of financing, Intel -4.04% on a $15B raise — while TSMC’s July revenue hit a record. Palo Alto and CrowdStrike set records. Vertex jumped 6% on a rival’s failure.
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MIB Weekly: The Market Outvoted Five Fed Hawks and Bought a Record on a 23K Job Loss — AI Now Pays for Capital Discipline, Not Growth, and a Beat Buys Nothing; Wednesday’s CPI Can Undo All of It
The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,757.46, up 3.57% on the week, after July payrolls contracted 23,000 against an +83,000 consensus and priced a September rate hike out of the front end — over the objections of five Fed officials who spent four sessions arguing for one. Crude round-tripped 8.8% lower on the Hormuz reopening trade, leaving Energy down 3.66% with the strait still shut. Palantir surged 39.78%; AMD beat on every line and fell 7% on its capex.
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MIB Daily: A Record Built on an Unsigned Hormuz Deal — Tech Carries It, AMD Tests It, Macro Waits Its Turn
Records everywhere: Dow tops 54,000 for the first time, S&P 500 hits 7,736.49. Brent collapses 6.08% to $78.68 as Bessent floats a Hormuz deal “today or tomorrow” — but June’s signed deal already failed on the same question. Tech rips 4.25%; Intel and SanDisk both +10.84%. AMD beats on everything and falls 8% after hours anyway. Bezos files to sell $4.07B of Amazon. JOLTS and factory orders both miss — nobody cared. Philadelphia Fed’s Paulson keeps a rate hike alive.
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MIB Weekly: Intel Beat by 100% and Fell 7.89% as Capital Intensity Repriced — Brent Over $100, a Tariff Floor on 99.4% of Imports, Hike Odds at 72%, and Breadth Still Green
Brent topped $100 for the first time in two months and closed the week up 11.39% after Houthi missiles struck two Saudi tankers. The larger repricing was in AI: Alphabet (-7.13%), Tesla (-14.52%) and Intel (-7.89% despite its best growth in fifteen years) were all punished for capital spending, while Apple (+3.53%) and IBM (+3.65%) were bid for having none. Polymarket’s 2026 hike odds jumped 21 points to 72% heading into Wednesday’s FOMC.
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MIB Daily: Intel Fell 7.89% on a Blowout Quarter as Semis Shed 4.4% and Apple Rose 3.53% — a 12.5% Tariff Floor Now Covers 99.4% of Imports, and a Split FOMC Meets Wednesday
Section 301 forced-labor tariffs of 10-12.5% hit 60 economies covering 99.4% of US imports — a durable levy replacing the struck-down IEEPA regime. An AI capex scare gutted chips: Intel -7.89% after a blowout quarter, SanDisk -10.79%, Micron -6.99%. Apple +3.53% and IBM +3.65% won the rotation. Crude reversed hard, Brent -2.50% to $98, on a China-brokered Iran overture. July PMI hit an eight-month high of 53.6. A third of the rates market now prices a Wednesday hike.
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MIB Daily: Oil’s Surge to $86 and 5.16% Yields Hand the Fed Its Excuse — Energy Leads as Alphabet, Tesla Defend $489B in AI Debt
Oil hit six-week highs — WTI +2.73%, Brent +3.32% — as an 11th night of US strikes on Iran, a Houthi Red Sea blockade threat, and a Caspian Pipeline attack compound at once, dragging gold to $4,140 while stocks slipped (S&P -0.14%, Nasdaq 100 -0.54%). Deutsche Bank and BofA now see 2-3 more Fed hikes after a weak 20-year auction pushed yields to 5.16%. Dell +9.32%, GE Vernova -8.69%, Palantir -6.10%. Alphabet and Tesla report after the bell.
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MIB Daily: WTI +9%, Oracle’s 52-Week Low, and a Hawkish Fed — Tuesday’s CPI Decides Whether to Rotate Into Energy or Stay Defensive
Trump reinstated a Strait of Hormuz blockade on Iran, sending WTI up 9%, S&P 500 down 0.79%, Nasdaq 1.88%, and VIX up 14%. Fed’s Waller reopened rate-hike odds ahead of Tuesday’s CPI, lifting 10Y yields to 4.626%. Oracle (-6.47%) hit a 52-week low on a credit downgrade over OpenAI concentration risk, while SK Hynix cratered 15% in Seoul and SanDisk (-12.63%) led a NAND selloff. Gold fell 2.55% despite the escalation, dollar strength overriding safe-haven demand.
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MIB Weekly: SK Hynix and Meta Powered Through Iran and a Hawkish Fed, But Software Lagged — SpaceX’s Junk Spreads Say the AI Trade’s Real Test Is Still Ahead
AI-infrastructure conviction defined the week: SK Hynix’s record $26.5B Nasdaq debut surged 14%, Meta rallied roughly 15% on its “Meta Compute” cloud pivot, and Broadcom extended a $30B+ Apple chip deal — even as a genuine US-Iran ceasefire collapse sent oil spiking as much as 5.9% and nine of eleven S&P sectors red mid-week. The Fed turned meaningfully more hawkish, with 2026 rate-hike odds jumping to 59% after Williams named AI-driven demand his top inflation risk. The S&P 500 closed +1.24%; the Dow finished red.
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MIB Daily: Chips Crack and Oil Spikes on Hormuz Attacks — A Hawkish-Dovish Fed Split Meets Hot Inflation Data as Capital Rotates Into Energy and Healthcare
Chip stocks cratered despite Samsung’s blowout profit — Intel -9.66%, Nasdaq 100 -1.77% — as Reuters reported DeepSeek is building its own AI chip. NY Fed inflation expectations hit 3.7%, highest since 2023, lifting the 10-year 7bps and exposing a Hammack-hawkish, Williams-dovish Fed split before the July 28-29 FOMC. Oil spiked 5.3% after Iran struck tankers near Hormuz and Washington revoked Tehran’s export license. Healthcare’s rotation rally extended; Rivian sank 18% on a $1.5B raise, SpaceX slid 6.34% in its Nasdaq-100 debut.
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MIB Daily: GOOG -5.1% as AI Architects Defect to Rivals, MU +6.8% Confirms Hardware Wins; Oil Falls to $74 but Yields Rise, PCE Thursday Decides
Alphabet fell 5.1% — worst day in years — after its transformer co-inventor defected to OpenAI and AlphaFold’s Nobel laureate moved to Anthropic, while Alphabet raised $84.75B for the AI compute those leaders built. WTI hit an eight-month low at $74.09 on US Treasury authorization of Iranian oil exports, yet 10-year yields rose 6 bps — bond markets declining to confirm oil disinflation as a Fed catalyst. Micron surged 6.8% on an Anthropic co-design deal; Russell 2000 crossed 3,000 for the first time.
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MIB Weekly: WTI -9% (Iran MoU), 2Y +9 bps (Warsh Hike Signal), SOX Record (Apple-Intel) — Which Inflation Arc Wins H2?
WTI crude fell 9% as the US and Iran confirmed a 60-day Hormuz ceasefire, deflating the energy inflation premium that locked the Fed out of cuts — but Warsh’s inaugural FOMC promptly reclaimed that space: 9 of 18 members projected a 2026 hike, pushing 2Y yields to a 14-month high. Against both forces, the SOX hit a record as Trump’s Apple–Intel foundry deal capped a week where AI hardware proved rate-cycle-agnostic.
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