Hormuz transits collapse to six vessels against a pre-war 140 — crude posts a fifth straight gain and equities slip into tomorrow’s CPI. The EIA picks the same day to raise its 2026 diesel forecast 8.5% and sees crude stocks below the five-year low all year. Private payrolls decelerate for a sixth week; the front end barely blinked. Alphabet -3.84% as 300 French publishers file over AI Overviews. Intel prices an upsized $20B raise at $95 on $100B of demand.
Tag Archives | Intel
MIB Daily: Crude’s 5th Gain and EIA’s 8.5% Diesel Hike Mean CPI Won’t Be Reassurance — Payrolls Decelerate a 6th Week as Chip-Equipment (KLA +4.01%) Outruns AI Platforms (GOOGL -3.84%)
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MIB Daily: Oil’s 5% Hormuz shock reprices inflation risk as chipmakers tap $500B in outside AI financing and a second chokepoint breaks the rerouting hedge — does September turn stagflationary after Wednesday’s CPI?
Oil ripped 5.2% after Iran demanded the US blockade lift before Hormuz reopens — Energy +3.61%, the S&P still closed flat. Yields and VIX rose together: an inflation scare, not a growth one, two days before CPI. Cleveland’s Hammack wants more than one hike. Chips led the downside — Nvidia -2.87% on $500B of financing, Intel -4.04% on a $15B raise — while TSMC’s July revenue hit a record. Palo Alto and CrowdStrike set records. Vertex jumped 6% on a rival’s failure.
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MIB Weekly: The Market Outvoted Five Fed Hawks and Bought a Record on a 23K Job Loss — AI Now Pays for Capital Discipline, Not Growth, and a Beat Buys Nothing; Wednesday’s CPI Can Undo All of It
The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,757.46, up 3.57% on the week, after July payrolls contracted 23,000 against an +83,000 consensus and priced a September rate hike out of the front end — over the objections of five Fed officials who spent four sessions arguing for one. Crude round-tripped 8.8% lower on the Hormuz reopening trade, leaving Energy down 3.66% with the strait still shut. Palantir surged 39.78%; AMD beat on every line and fell 7% on its capex.
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MIB Daily: A Record Built on an Unsigned Hormuz Deal — Tech Carries It, AMD Tests It, Macro Waits Its Turn
Records everywhere: Dow tops 54,000 for the first time, S&P 500 hits 7,736.49. Brent collapses 6.08% to $78.68 as Bessent floats a Hormuz deal “today or tomorrow” — but June’s signed deal already failed on the same question. Tech rips 4.25%; Intel and SanDisk both +10.84%. AMD beats on everything and falls 8% after hours anyway. Bezos files to sell $4.07B of Amazon. JOLTS and factory orders both miss — nobody cared. Philadelphia Fed’s Paulson keeps a rate hike alive.
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MIB Weekly: Intel Beat by 100% and Fell 7.89% as Capital Intensity Repriced — Brent Over $100, a Tariff Floor on 99.4% of Imports, Hike Odds at 72%, and Breadth Still Green
Brent topped $100 for the first time in two months and closed the week up 11.39% after Houthi missiles struck two Saudi tankers. The larger repricing was in AI: Alphabet (-7.13%), Tesla (-14.52%) and Intel (-7.89% despite its best growth in fifteen years) were all punished for capital spending, while Apple (+3.53%) and IBM (+3.65%) were bid for having none. Polymarket’s 2026 hike odds jumped 21 points to 72% heading into Wednesday’s FOMC.
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MIB Daily: Intel Fell 7.89% on a Blowout Quarter as Semis Shed 4.4% and Apple Rose 3.53% — a 12.5% Tariff Floor Now Covers 99.4% of Imports, and a Split FOMC Meets Wednesday
Section 301 forced-labor tariffs of 10-12.5% hit 60 economies covering 99.4% of US imports — a durable levy replacing the struck-down IEEPA regime. An AI capex scare gutted chips: Intel -7.89% after a blowout quarter, SanDisk -10.79%, Micron -6.99%. Apple +3.53% and IBM +3.65% won the rotation. Crude reversed hard, Brent -2.50% to $98, on a China-brokered Iran overture. July PMI hit an eight-month high of 53.6. A third of the rates market now prices a Wednesday hike.
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MIB Daily: Oil’s Surge to $86 and 5.16% Yields Hand the Fed Its Excuse — Energy Leads as Alphabet, Tesla Defend $489B in AI Debt
Oil hit six-week highs — WTI +2.73%, Brent +3.32% — as an 11th night of US strikes on Iran, a Houthi Red Sea blockade threat, and a Caspian Pipeline attack compound at once, dragging gold to $4,140 while stocks slipped (S&P -0.14%, Nasdaq 100 -0.54%). Deutsche Bank and BofA now see 2-3 more Fed hikes after a weak 20-year auction pushed yields to 5.16%. Dell +9.32%, GE Vernova -8.69%, Palantir -6.10%. Alphabet and Tesla report after the bell.
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MIB Daily: WTI +9%, Oracle’s 52-Week Low, and a Hawkish Fed — Tuesday’s CPI Decides Whether to Rotate Into Energy or Stay Defensive
Trump reinstated a Strait of Hormuz blockade on Iran, sending WTI up 9%, S&P 500 down 0.79%, Nasdaq 1.88%, and VIX up 14%. Fed’s Waller reopened rate-hike odds ahead of Tuesday’s CPI, lifting 10Y yields to 4.626%. Oracle (-6.47%) hit a 52-week low on a credit downgrade over OpenAI concentration risk, while SK Hynix cratered 15% in Seoul and SanDisk (-12.63%) led a NAND selloff. Gold fell 2.55% despite the escalation, dollar strength overriding safe-haven demand.
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MIB Weekly: SK Hynix and Meta Powered Through Iran and a Hawkish Fed, But Software Lagged — SpaceX’s Junk Spreads Say the AI Trade’s Real Test Is Still Ahead
AI-infrastructure conviction defined the week: SK Hynix’s record $26.5B Nasdaq debut surged 14%, Meta rallied roughly 15% on its “Meta Compute” cloud pivot, and Broadcom extended a $30B+ Apple chip deal — even as a genuine US-Iran ceasefire collapse sent oil spiking as much as 5.9% and nine of eleven S&P sectors red mid-week. The Fed turned meaningfully more hawkish, with 2026 rate-hike odds jumping to 59% after Williams named AI-driven demand his top inflation risk. The S&P 500 closed +1.24%; the Dow finished red.
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MIB Daily: Chips Crack and Oil Spikes on Hormuz Attacks — A Hawkish-Dovish Fed Split Meets Hot Inflation Data as Capital Rotates Into Energy and Healthcare
Chip stocks cratered despite Samsung’s blowout profit — Intel -9.66%, Nasdaq 100 -1.77% — as Reuters reported DeepSeek is building its own AI chip. NY Fed inflation expectations hit 3.7%, highest since 2023, lifting the 10-year 7bps and exposing a Hammack-hawkish, Williams-dovish Fed split before the July 28-29 FOMC. Oil spiked 5.3% after Iran struck tankers near Hormuz and Washington revoked Tehran’s export license. Healthcare’s rotation rally extended; Rivian sank 18% on a $1.5B raise, SpaceX slid 6.34% in its Nasdaq-100 debut.
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MIB Daily: GOOG -5.1% as AI Architects Defect to Rivals, MU +6.8% Confirms Hardware Wins; Oil Falls to $74 but Yields Rise, PCE Thursday Decides
Alphabet fell 5.1% — worst day in years — after its transformer co-inventor defected to OpenAI and AlphaFold’s Nobel laureate moved to Anthropic, while Alphabet raised $84.75B for the AI compute those leaders built. WTI hit an eight-month low at $74.09 on US Treasury authorization of Iranian oil exports, yet 10-year yields rose 6 bps — bond markets declining to confirm oil disinflation as a Fed catalyst. Micron surged 6.8% on an Anthropic co-design deal; Russell 2000 crossed 3,000 for the first time.
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MIB Weekly: WTI -9% (Iran MoU), 2Y +9 bps (Warsh Hike Signal), SOX Record (Apple-Intel) — Which Inflation Arc Wins H2?
WTI crude fell 9% as the US and Iran confirmed a 60-day Hormuz ceasefire, deflating the energy inflation premium that locked the Fed out of cuts — but Warsh’s inaugural FOMC promptly reclaimed that space: 9 of 18 members projected a 2026 hike, pushing 2Y yields to a 14-month high. Against both forces, the SOX hit a record as Trump’s Apple–Intel foundry deal capped a week where AI hardware proved rate-cycle-agnostic.
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MIB Daily: SOX +6% Record on Apple-Intel, Iran Unwinds Gold and Energy — Warsh Hikes, Housing Cracks, Bond Market Refuses to Celebrate
Trump confirmed Apple will build chips at Intel’s foundry, sending SOX up 6% to a record and INTC +10.6% — AI hardware is now rate-cycle-agnostic as Nasdaq gained 2.48% on the day Warsh signaled a 2026 rate hike. Gold plunged 3.51% and silver 7.05% as Iran MOU execution unwound two risk premiums simultaneously. Accenture collapsed 16-18% on a guidance cut, crystallizing AI’s bifurcation: hardware thrives while IT consulting implodes. Housing starts plunged 15.4% in May; Philly Prices Paid surged to 53.2.
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MIB Daily: Semiconductors Declared Most Crowded in History, Then Imploded — Warsh’s Dot-Plot Could Do the Same to Rotation
BofA declared semiconductors the most crowded trade in history — MRVL -9.78%, AMD -7.30%, INTC -8.45% — while the Dow hit its 17th record on Financials and Industrials rotation. Kevin Warsh opens his inaugural FOMC with a rate hold expected but a hawkish dot-plot likely; May housing starts collapsed -15.4% to 1.177M (weakest since 2020) and import prices surged to 6.7% YoY. WTI -5.09% on Iran peace deal repricing. SpaceX acquired Cursor for $60B, crossing a $2.8T valuation to overtake Amazon.
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MIB Weekly: Dow Cracked 50,000 and a $2.1T IPO Debuted in the Same Week — Long Semis, Short AI Cash-Burn; Iran Holds the Key to Warsh’s June 17 FOMC
Iran’s 14-point Hormuz draft MoU sent WTI from $91.78 to $84.24 by Friday, potentially deflating the energy surge that drove May CPI to a three-year high (4.2%) and locked out Fed cuts heading into Warsh’s June 17 inaugural FOMC — now with 47% hike odds. SpaceX debuted as the largest IPO in US history ($75B raised, +19.3%), while Intel’s Google foundry win and JPMorgan’s KLAC upgrade drove the semiconductor equipment complex +20–32% on the week.
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MIB Daily: WTI -4% on Iran’s Hormuz MoU, SPCX +19.3% — Does the Deal Close Before Warsh’s Dot-Plot Resets Duration?
Iran’s Hormuz draft deal sent WTI -4% to $84, staging the broadest equity recovery since last week’s CPI shock — S&P +0.50%, 10 of 11 sectors green. SpaceX (SPCX) debuted +19.3% at $161, raising $75B at a $2.1T valuation. The 2-year hit 4.14% — 40 bps above the Fed ceiling — as markets price 47% hike odds ahead of Warsh’s inaugural FOMC. Michigan sentiment beat at 48.9; 5-year inflation expectations dropped 50 bps to 3.4%, giving Warsh cover to hold.
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MIB Daily: Intel Wins Google and NVIDIA in One Day (+11%) — Long Semis and Fiber; Wednesday’s 4.2% CPI and Warsh’s Debut Dare the 8-of-11 Red Market to Hold
Intel landed Google’s 3M+ TPU order and NVIDIA 18A foundry trials Monday, validating its three-year transformation and sending INTC +11%, MU +10%, KLAC/AMAT +9%. Apple reversed a 52-week intraday high to close -1.87% after WWDC revealed Siri AI as a Google Gemini reskin. Wednesday’s May CPI (headline YoY exp. 4.2%) is the last major datapoint before Warsh’s debut FOMC; Israel-Iran re-escalation and WTI near $94 add a stagflationary dimension. Corning (GLW +5.55%) secured Amazon’s AI fiber buildout.
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MIB Daily: NVDA Built the 7,600 Record, Iran Is Building the Unwind — WTI at $92 Makes Warsh’s June 16-17 Debut a Rate-Hike Decision
Iran suspended ceasefire talks — WTI +5.5% to $92.18 adds ~35 bps to PCE at 3.8%, complicating Warsh’s June 16-17 FOMC debut. NVDA’s RTX Spark detonated enterprise tech (DELL +10.7%, ORCL +9.9%, IBM +7.6%) while QCOM -8.78% and INTC -4.69% paid the AI-transition toll. S&P crossed 7,600 on a 9-of-11-sector red session as ISM Manufacturing hit a 4-year high of 54.0%. Anthropic filed a confidential S-1 at $965B valuation. Berkshire acquired Taylor Morrison for $6.8B at a 24% premium.
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MIB Daily: WTI Below $100 and NVDA’s $81.6B Beat — Can Iran Hold Long Enough to Kill December’s Rate Hike?
Dow crossed 50,000 as Trump declared Iran talks ‘in final stages,’ crashing WTI -5.7% to $98 and pulling the 10-year yield -9 bps. NVIDIA Q1 beat ($81.6B, +85% YoY; Q2 guide $89-93B, $80B buyback) lifted AMD +8.1% and INTC +7.4%. Russell 2000 led all indices at +2.51% as rate-sensitive small-caps caught the yield-relief bid. April FOMC minutes put a majority on record for hiking; December probability above 50%. 20-year Treasury auction cleared at 5.12% with below-average demand, post-Moody’s.
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MIB Weekly: Stagflation Confirmed, AI Capex Accelerating, Summit Resolved Nothing — Own Energy & AI Infrastructure, Sell Rate-Sensitive Duration Through the Fall Diplomatic Window
WTI crude surged +11.52% to $105.48 as US-Iran ceasefire talks collapsed — “garbage” per Trump Tuesday — while CPI 3.8% and PPI 6.0% pushed rate-hike odds from under 3% to over 50% in 72 hours and the 10Y to a one-year high of 4.601%. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair inheriting this stagflation stack. The Trump-Xi summit briefly drove records (S&P 7,500, Dow 50,000 Thursday) before crashing Friday on zero binding deals — tariffs, chips, and Taiwan all unresolved.
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