Archive | June, 2019

Global Economy affects U.S stock market returns

Download article as PDF The global economy is currently in the depths of a synchronized global business-cycle contraction, first highlighted by us in June 2018. In March 2019 we followed up with Global Economic Activity slowing at the fastest pace since 2011. The chart below highlights the Global Leading Economic Indicator together with the percentage […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

Adjusting Fed Funds Rate for QE to predict rate cycle direction changes

Download article as PDF The Federal Reserve Funds Rate (Fed Funds Rate) is the interest rate that banks charge other banks for lending them money from their reserve balances on an overnight basis. By law, banks must maintain a reserve equal to a certain percentage of their deposits in an account at a Federal Reserve bank. […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

Is the U.S Yield Curve Inversion locked in?

Download article as PDF In our February 2019 commentary we forecast that the 10’s and 1’s yield-curve would invert in May. The data below is taken from that market commentary, with a warning that the indicated dates of recession have a very wide standard deviation over the historical record: The 10’s and 1’s term spread […]

Read full story · Comments are closed