Archive | March, 2012

ECRI WLI Growth Conundrum

Download article as PDF More recently, ECRI has switched from the use of smoothed 6-month growth rates (as calculated by their WLIg growth metric) to  annual (52-week) growth numbers of its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) to prop up a recession scenario. The reason cited is “…a wide­spread sea­sonal adjust­ment prob­lem that  econ­o­mists have known about for some time.”  […]

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U.S economy almost back to par growth

Download article as PDF The U.S Coincident SuperIndex, which estimates U.S economic current growth, is within a whisker of returning to the growth rate normally averaged by the economy after 33 months into an expansion, as shown by the chart on the left. However, cumulative growth since the start of the expansion still remains sub-par (right […]

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A Recession Fear Indicator

Download article as PDF An analysis of Google global search volume for the term “recession” reveals a promising new recession indicator that nailed the official NBER start of the 2008 great recession to within 2 week lag of its peak. It is also interesting to note the spike in mid-to-late August 2011 (around the time […]

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