Archive | March, 2016

Bear market rules still in force

Our first bear market signal was issued on 1 September 2015 when the Composite Market Health Index (CMHI) dipped below zero. Since then we had a sustained deterioration of the CMHI components to reinforce the signal, coupled with high stock market volatility. Although market breadth features prominently in the CMHI, there is another way to […]

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A new monthly leading US index

Many monthly leading indices published for the U.S have about 10 indicator components, and we wanted one that had at least double this. The components of the new index are all monthly time series and are as follows: 01.Labor Market Composite (19 indicators) 02.Housing Market Composite (6 indicators) 03.Enhanced Yield Curve (EYC) 04.Money Supply Aggregate […]

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  RECESSIONALERT,  WED 20 OCT : THERE IS 1x PRO ALERT AND 1 X MACRO-ECONOMIC WARNING