S&P +2.51%, Dow +1,325 pts on Trump-Iran two-week ceasefire — but the Strait of Hormuz partially halted again by day’s end as the truce frayed. WTI -14.5%; semiconductors led: INTC +11%, LRCX +10%. Travel surged: UAL +10%, CCL +11%. Energy the only loser: XOM -5%, CVX -5%. UNH +9.4% on $13B Medicare Advantage windfall. FOMC minutes revealed rate hike discussions — Friday’s March CPI is the next test.
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MIB: Ceasefire Euphoria — Oil Craters 14%, S&P Surges, Then the Strait Closes Again
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MIB: Oil Shock, Semiconductor Selloff, and Powell’s Dovish Pivot Reshape the Market
Iran War Day 31: Trump threatens to obliterate Iran’s energy infrastructure unless Hormuz reopened immediately (Tehran: demands “unrealistic”). WTI +5.39% to $105; gas $3.99 nationally, up $1.01 in one month. Google TurboQuant AI compression crushes semiconductors: MU -9.92%, LRCX -5.43%, Nasdaq -0.73%. Powell “looks past” oil shock at Harvard — rate hike odds collapsed from 52% to 2%. Russell 2000 -1.51% vs Dow +0.11% — small caps pricing in recession. Nike earnings tomorrow.
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MIB: Stagflation Trap — Iran Sends Oil Past $101 While Google’s AI Crushes Semis and Meta Faces $Billions in Verdicts
Iran denies US peace talks, pushing Brent crude past $101 and extending the Hormuz chokehold. Google’s TurboQuant crushed semiconductor stocks (LRCX -9.4%, AMAT -8.3%, AMD -7.5%, MU -7%). Meta shed 8% on a landmark social media addiction verdict. Nasdaq entered correction territory (-10%). OECD raised US inflation forecast to 4.2% for 2026, highest in G7. BlackRock downgraded US equities to neutral as stagflation fears mount.
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MIB: Precious metals rout, Qatar struck again — Hormuz Week 3 Rewrites Every Portfolio Playbook
Gold crashes -5% through $5,000 as real yields spike — silver -6%, platinum -4%. Iran strikes Qatar’s LNG; Dutch TTF gas surges +13%. Chip equipment stocks surge (LRCX +4.13%, AMD +2.91%) on Micron AI beat, but MU -3.78% sell-the-news. Jobless claims 205K beat, defying stagflation fears. S&P -0.28% but Russell 2000 +0.64% as Israel pledges Hormuz reopening. FedEx beats AMC, raises guidance.
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MIB: FOMC Day One, Oil Resumes Rally, Amazon’s $600B AI Bet, and a Brutal LLY Downgrade
Oil resumed its climb — WTI $96, Brent $103+ — as FOMC Day 1 began and Monday’s de-escalation optimism faded. Amazon CEO Jassy doubled AWS 10-year target to $600B on AI demand (AMZN +1%). HSBC issued a rare Sell on LLY (-5.3%) citing GLP-1 market TAM saturation and imminent price wars. February retail sales beat (+0.6%) showed the consumer holding firm. Delta (DAL +6%) and American (AAL +4%) lifted Q1 guidance — travel demand crushing oil cost headwinds.
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