June payrolls badly missed at 57K vs. 115K est.; unemployment fell to 4.2% only as participation hit a five-year low. Dow rode Fed rate-cut hopes to a record (+1.14%) even as gold’s 1.3% jump read it as a growth warning. Semiconductors extended their rout (SanDisk -14%, KLA -11.5%) as Meta (-4.9%) admitted AI agents “hasn’t accelerated as expected.” Tesla fell 7.5% despite blowout deliveries; O’Reilly bid ~$10B for GPC’s NAPA; oil hit a 4-month low on US-Iran progress.
Tag Archives | Lam Research
MIB Daily: Payrolls Miss (57K vs 115K) Fuels a Record Dow as Gold and Chips Flash a Warning — Can AI Capex Survive the Rotation Into Value?
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: GOOG -5.1% as AI Architects Defect to Rivals, MU +6.8% Confirms Hardware Wins; Oil Falls to $74 but Yields Rise, PCE Thursday Decides
Alphabet fell 5.1% — worst day in years — after its transformer co-inventor defected to OpenAI and AlphaFold’s Nobel laureate moved to Anthropic, while Alphabet raised $84.75B for the AI compute those leaders built. WTI hit an eight-month low at $74.09 on US Treasury authorization of Iranian oil exports, yet 10-year yields rose 6 bps — bond markets declining to confirm oil disinflation as a Fed catalyst. Micron surged 6.8% on an Anthropic co-design deal; Russell 2000 crossed 3,000 for the first time.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Weekly: Dow Cracked 50,000 and a $2.1T IPO Debuted in the Same Week — Long Semis, Short AI Cash-Burn; Iran Holds the Key to Warsh’s June 17 FOMC
Iran’s 14-point Hormuz draft MoU sent WTI from $91.78 to $84.24 by Friday, potentially deflating the energy surge that drove May CPI to a three-year high (4.2%) and locked out Fed cuts heading into Warsh’s June 17 inaugural FOMC — now with 47% hike odds. SpaceX debuted as the largest IPO in US history ($75B raised, +19.3%), while Intel’s Google foundry win and JPMorgan’s KLAC upgrade drove the semiconductor equipment complex +20–32% on the week.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: WTI Below $100 and NVDA’s $81.6B Beat — Can Iran Hold Long Enough to Kill December’s Rate Hike?
Dow crossed 50,000 as Trump declared Iran talks ‘in final stages,’ crashing WTI -5.7% to $98 and pulling the 10-year yield -9 bps. NVIDIA Q1 beat ($81.6B, +85% YoY; Q2 guide $89-93B, $80B buyback) lifted AMD +8.1% and INTC +7.4%. Russell 2000 led all indices at +2.51% as rate-sensitive small-caps caught the yield-relief bid. April FOMC minutes put a majority on record for hiking; December probability above 50%. 20-year Treasury auction cleared at 5.12% with below-average demand, post-Moody’s.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB: Ceasefire Euphoria — Oil Craters 14%, S&P Surges, Then the Strait Closes Again
S&P +2.51%, Dow +1,325 pts on Trump-Iran two-week ceasefire — but the Strait of Hormuz partially halted again by day’s end as the truce frayed. WTI -14.5%; semiconductors led: INTC +11%, LRCX +10%. Travel surged: UAL +10%, CCL +11%. Energy the only loser: XOM -5%, CVX -5%. UNH +9.4% on $13B Medicare Advantage windfall. FOMC minutes revealed rate hike discussions — Friday’s March CPI is the next test.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB: Oil Shock, Semiconductor Selloff, and Powell’s Dovish Pivot Reshape the Market
Iran War Day 31: Trump threatens to obliterate Iran’s energy infrastructure unless Hormuz reopened immediately (Tehran: demands “unrealistic”). WTI +5.39% to $105; gas $3.99 nationally, up $1.01 in one month. Google TurboQuant AI compression crushes semiconductors: MU -9.92%, LRCX -5.43%, Nasdaq -0.73%. Powell “looks past” oil shock at Harvard — rate hike odds collapsed from 52% to 2%. Russell 2000 -1.51% vs Dow +0.11% — small caps pricing in recession. Nike earnings tomorrow.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB: Stagflation Trap — Iran Sends Oil Past $101 While Google’s AI Crushes Semis and Meta Faces $Billions in Verdicts
Iran denies US peace talks, pushing Brent crude past $101 and extending the Hormuz chokehold. Google’s TurboQuant crushed semiconductor stocks (LRCX -9.4%, AMAT -8.3%, AMD -7.5%, MU -7%). Meta shed 8% on a landmark social media addiction verdict. Nasdaq entered correction territory (-10%). OECD raised US inflation forecast to 4.2% for 2026, highest in G7. BlackRock downgraded US equities to neutral as stagflation fears mount.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB: Precious metals rout, Qatar struck again — Hormuz Week 3 Rewrites Every Portfolio Playbook
Gold crashes -5% through $5,000 as real yields spike — silver -6%, platinum -4%. Iran strikes Qatar’s LNG; Dutch TTF gas surges +13%. Chip equipment stocks surge (LRCX +4.13%, AMD +2.91%) on Micron AI beat, but MU -3.78% sell-the-news. Jobless claims 205K beat, defying stagflation fears. S&P -0.28% but Russell 2000 +0.64% as Israel pledges Hormuz reopening. FedEx beats AMC, raises guidance.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB: FOMC Day One, Oil Resumes Rally, Amazon’s $600B AI Bet, and a Brutal LLY Downgrade
Oil resumed its climb — WTI $96, Brent $103+ — as FOMC Day 1 began and Monday’s de-escalation optimism faded. Amazon CEO Jassy doubled AWS 10-year target to $600B on AI demand (AMZN +1%). HSBC issued a rare Sell on LLY (-5.3%) citing GLP-1 market TAM saturation and imminent price wars. February retail sales beat (+0.6%) showed the consumer holding firm. Delta (DAL +6%) and American (AAL +4%) lifted Q1 guidance — travel demand crushing oil cost headwinds.
Read full story · Comments are closed