AI-financing fears sent the Nasdaq 100 down 2.50% to its lowest close since September 16 as CoreWeave sank 12% and the chip index fell for an eighth straight session, its longest streak since 2008. Software followed: PANW -7.63%, PLTR -7.22%, CRWD -7.02%. Brent touched $110 after a missile was intercepted near Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu hub. Import prices rose 1.1% in September, an 8.1% annual pace. Warsh gave no October signal and hold odds rose to 85.1%; the VIX jumped 21%.
Tag Archives | Broadcom
MIB Daily: The AI Trade Now Has a Credit Problem, CoreWeave Bonds Top 15% as Money Flees Tech for Energy and Staples, and $110 Brent With 8.1% Import Inflation Leaves the Fed No Easy Out
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: OpenAI’s $20B Revenue Gap Asks Who Pays for AI, Sinking Chips as Gulf Shut-Ins Push Crude to $91, SpaceX Hits the Carriers and Bonds Rally Into Fed Hike Talk Before CPI
An FT report that OpenAI’s revenue run-rate sits about $20 billion below earlier signals sank chipmakers, dragging the Nasdaq 100 down 1.39% as Oracle fell 5.48%. Hurricane Isaias shut in 63% of Gulf oil output, and WTI settled up $3.21 at $91.49. Trump ruled out striking Iran before the midterms. Waller and Musalem both signaled more hikes, yet the 10-year fell 5.9 bps. After the bell, SpaceX agreed to buy nationwide 800 MHz spectrum, and AT&T fell 6.75% after hours.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Weekly: Hike Odds Collapsed and Yields Rose Anyway, a 5.34% 10-Year Sank Gold and Banks Despite Hormuz Strikes, as Chip Equipment Led and Anthropic’s $2T IPO Tested Who Funds AI
A global long-bond rout drove the week: the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% Thursday, its highest since 2002, and finished 10.9 bps higher even as soft payrolls and a cooler PCE cut October Fed-hike odds to about 23%. Chip equipment carried the Nasdaq 100 to a record (AMAT +11.35%, LRCX +10.24%, KLAC +10.09%) while the S&P 500 and Dow fell. Gold lost 3.48% despite repeated Hormuz ship strikes.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: Brent Tops $102 on China’s Fuel-Export Halt and the 10-Year Hits 5.34%, Long Yields Tighten for the Fed as Banks and Junk Credit Strain, and a $2 Trillion Anthropic IPO Tests AI Leadership
Brent jumped 4.3% to $102.22 as Chinese refiners suspended October fuel exports. The 10-year yield touched 5.34% intraday, its highest since 2002, then closed down 4.8 bps; UK 30-year gilts topped 6%. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson called energy “the predominant factor” in rising inflation as ISM’s prices gauge leapt to 77.9. Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage rate hit 7.28% and junk CDS widened to April levels. Anthropic eyes a November IPO at up to $2 trillion.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Weekly: The S&P Went Nowhere and Everything Under It Moved, WTI +9.22% With Energy Equities Not Following, SNDK +17.17% vs PANW -10.32%, FICO -16.68% by Directive, September Repriced Three Times, Still a Coin Flip
The September FOMC was repriced three times in five sessions and ended where it started: Barr said hike, Waller said hold, and Friday’s 162,000-payroll blowout against a 56,000 consensus flipped implied odds back to 58-60%. Underneath it, five days of US-Iran exchanges put WTI up 9.22% and took retail diesel to an all-time record $5.850, six days before the CPI on which Waller staked his vote. Technology split in half: Sandisk +17.17% against Palo Alto -10.32%.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: Waller Cut September Hike Odds From 63.2% to Roughly 50% While ISM Prices Paid Hit 72.6, Gold and Bitcoin Rallied With Equities on One Trade, Industrials Led Into a Tariff Date They Do Not Price
Waller put a September hold on the table and hike odds collapsed from 63% to roughly 50% — the S&P jumped 1.06%, the VIX 5.86%. ISM services beat at 55.4 with prices paid at 72.6, and yields fell anyway. NVIDIA confirmed Hugging Face at $12.93 billion. Iran struck Gulf states a second night; WTI hit six-week highs while Energy finished the only red sector. Canadian retaliation lands September 8. Bitcoin added 5.06% and Palantir surged 7.71% on a PwC alliance.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: Yields Fell and Long-Duration Software Was Sold Anyway, Diesel Runs 54% Above Last Year Into a Split FOMC, and Broadcom Guides $21.7B in AI, So Does 4.818% Hold Through Friday’s Payrolls?
Equities snapped a three-day skid as the 10-year touched 4.818%, highest since November 2023, then reversed; S&P +0.46%, Russell 2000 +1.13%, VIX -6.79%. ADP added just 38,000 jobs before Friday’s payrolls. A judge spared Google’s ad exchange from divestiture. Chevron committed $7 billion to Venezuela as Washington widened sanctions relief. Nvidia rose 3.21% on a re-reported $14 billion Hugging Face deal. Uber cut 10% of staff as Delivery Hero backed its bid. Diesel closed 12.8 cents below its all-time high.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Weekly: The S&P Rose 0.49% and Told You Nothing, Warsh Sent the 2Y Up 12.2bp and Hike Odds to 68%, Chicago PMI Hit 47.1, Gold and Semicap Took the Hit, Marvell Paid 10.28% for 90bp of Margin
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole keynote to say the central bank has “more work to do” on inflation, and the two-year Treasury yield ended the week 12.2 basis points higher at 4.354% — September is now a live hike meeting, with Polymarket’s 2026 hike contract up twelve points to 68%. The damage landed on gold (−3.50%) and the Russell 2000 (−1.51%), not the S&P 500 (+0.49%). Friday’s rate move then took semiconductor equipment down 4–5%.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: The Debt Manager Rescued the Long End, Not the Fed, as Chips Fell 5.6% With 30 of 30 Down and Nebius -9.87% Repriced AI’s Funding End, Leaving Healthcare +3.37% and Metals +3.62% Hostage to Rates
Treasury doubled its long-bond buybacks and the tape turned: 10-year -6.8 bps, dollar -0.86%, gold +3.60%. Not a Fed trade: the July minutes showed several members ready to hike, nobody for a cut, and the market shrugged. Chips fell 5.6% a second day, all 30 down. Merck +12.60% on the first Phase 3 win for a cancer vaccine. Marvell handed Google a $12.2bn warrant; Broadcom paid -4.61%. Canada’s 50% tariffs pause three days; Bitcoin +6.25% on an SEC framework.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Weekly: Credit Priced AI on Disclosure Not Demand, AMD +6.4% vs Broadcom -8.1%, Brent +7.65% on Hulls Not Barrels, and Soft Data Lifted Yields While Three Names Sank the Dow
AI capital expenditure moved onto the credit market’s balance sheet this week: Goldman began syndicating Nvidia’s $500 billion financing programme, and the market immediately split the complex — AMD +6.42% after pricing a $4.75B bond through talk, Broadcom -8.13% on a $370B off-balance-sheet estimate. Brent gained 7.65% as Hormuz transits fell to six vessels a day. And two disinflation prints took hike odds to 49% before Friday’s retail sales miss (-0.6%) sent yields the wrong way.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: Bad News Stopped Being Good News, Weak Retail Sales and Hormuz Risk Lifted Yields as AMD’s Bond Deal Beat Broadcom’s AI Debt Fears, Setting Up Wednesday’s Tariff Cliff for Energy Over Tech
A record intraday high evaporated: retail sales fell 0.6% and UMich sentiment crashed to 51.0 — yet Treasuries sold off, because inflation expectations rose. The 10Y hit 4.692% and GDPNow cut Q3 growth to 4.3%. AMD surged 6.50% on a record $4.75B bond deal while Broadcom sank 5.94% on hidden AI debt. Goldman began syndicating Nvidia’s $500B financing. The UAE accused Iran of piracy in Hormuz. And Canada is five days from a 50% tariff cliff.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Weekly: SK Hynix and Meta Powered Through Iran and a Hawkish Fed, But Software Lagged — SpaceX’s Junk Spreads Say the AI Trade’s Real Test Is Still Ahead
AI-infrastructure conviction defined the week: SK Hynix’s record $26.5B Nasdaq debut surged 14%, Meta rallied roughly 15% on its “Meta Compute” cloud pivot, and Broadcom extended a $30B+ Apple chip deal — even as a genuine US-Iran ceasefire collapse sent oil spiking as much as 5.9% and nine of eleven S&P sectors red mid-week. The Fed turned meaningfully more hawkish, with 2026 rate-hike odds jumping to 59% after Williams named AI-driven demand his top inflation risk. The S&P 500 closed +1.24%; the Dow finished red.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: Oil +6%, Gold Falls — AI Chips Buck a 577-Point Dow Drop as a Split Fed Eyes July 28
Iran’s ceasefire collapsed as the U.S. struck 80+ targets and Treasury revoked Tehran’s oil waiver, sending WTI up 5.9% and Brent up 6.9%. The Dow sank 577 points (-1.1%) as nine of eleven sectors fell. Hawkish FOMC minutes showed nine of eighteen officials still eyeing a hike on AI-capex and oil-driven inflation risk. AI chips bucked the selloff — Broadcom’s $30B Apple deal, Nvidia’s China reports, and Arista +8.8%. Gold fell 1.7% despite the risk-off tape. May consumer credit unexpectedly contracted.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: SOX +3% and AMD +6.61% Confirm a Broadening AI Rally — But Can Cyclical Rotation Survive a Fed Still Split on Rate Cuts?
Broadcom’s decade-long Apple chip deal ignites a broad semiconductor rebound, driving the S&P (+0.72%) and Dow to record highs while AMD (+6.61%) and Arista (+8.31%) ride AI-infrastructure demand. June’s ISM Services report complicates the rate-cut story: hiring jumped even as growth cooled, muddying the Fed’s path into month-end’s FOMC. Tesla (+6.69%) rebounds on its first Miami robotaxi trading day. Vertex snaps up Crinetics for $10B in a biotech bet, and SK Hynix confirms a record $28B Nasdaq listing, pricing Thursday.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: Good news is bad news — Warsh reprices 2Y to 4.21%, AVGO/GEV defy selloff; can $75 WTI hold when Iran supply returns?
Fed Chair Warsh’s inaugural FOMC strips the easing bias; 9 of 18 members project a 2026 rate hike, dismantling the rate-cut thesis that anchored 2025 equity valuations — S&P -1.21%, 2Y yield to a 14-month high. Retail sales +0.9% handed Warsh hawkish cover; good news is now market-negative. US-Iran peace MOU opens Hormuz, WTI -5% to $75; IEA projects an 8 mb/d 2027 supply glut. AI hardware (AVGO +4.30%, GEV +6.77%) defied the selloff; META -5.44% on AI product executive departure.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: Stagflation Trap Snaps Shut — CPI 4.2%, WTI Hits $91 on Iran, SMCI -17%; Long Energy/Defensives, June 17 FOMC the Test
May CPI hit 4.2% YoY — a three-year high — making December a near-certain hike and pushing Goldman’s odds to 20%. US-Iran ceasefire collapsed: US struck Iranian air defenses, Iran retaliated, Trump signaled civilian-infrastructure strikes. WTI +4.06% to $91.78 on a seventh straight EIA draw of -7.2M bbl, triple estimates. SMCI -17% on a $7B raise dragged QCOM -6.92%, AVGO -5.12% as SpaceX’s $75B IPO extracts AI-trade liquidity. S&P -1.62%, Dow cracked 50,000; only Consumer Defensives and Energy finished green.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: AVGO -12.6% Exposes AI Hardware’s Pricing Trap — Dow ATH Hides Labor Stagflation Heading Into Friday’s NFP
AVGO −12.6% after AI chip guidance ($16B Q3) missed by $1.2B; SOX −2.8%, MU −7.74%. UNH +5.7% on dual BofA/MS upgrades lifted Healthcare +3.06% to drive the Dow to an ATH at 51,562. Ceasefire news cut WTI $3 to $93. Jobless claims 225K (highest since February) confirmed labor softening; Challenger’s 97K May cuts — 40% AI-driven — are a record. IMF extended the US inflation timeline to end-2027 ahead of Warsh’s first FOMC; Friday NFP consensus: 85K.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: Iran snaps the nine-session streak with WTI at $96 — Logan raises hike odds to 41%, SOXX surges vs. AI software, and $75B SpaceX supply hits June 12. Will NFP finish the job Friday?
US strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island and IRGC retaliation on Kuwait bases ended the S&P 500’s nine-session streak; WTI hit $96. Fed’s Logan called policy “a bit loose” pre-blackout, pushing hike odds to 41%; ADP 122K and dual ISM above 54 make Friday NFP the pivot. SpaceX priced the largest US IPO in history ($1.75T, $75B raise, June 12 Nasdaq); Anthropic filed at $1T the same day. Trump proposed 10–12.5% tariffs on 60 partners including Canada, Mexico, and the EU.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: MRVL +33%, S&P 7,600 on Huang’s Computex Crown — Hammack’s Hike Signal Makes Friday’s NFP the Market’s Next Binary
Nvidia’s Jensen Huang named Marvell “the next trillion-dollar company” at Computex — MRVL +33%, chip equipment up 5-7%, S&P 500 crossed 7,600 for the first time. Alphabet’s $80B equity offering to fund AI capex sent GOOGL -4%; Berkshire took a $10B stake. FTC broadened antitrust probe into Microsoft’s cloud/AI bundling (MSFT -4%). JOLTS April surged 731K above consensus as Cleveland Fed’s Hammack warned a rate hike “may soon be appropriate,” pushing 2026 hike odds to 34% with WTI above $93.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB: Cisco AI Orders Surge, Trump-Xi Summit Ignites Rally, Import Prices Double Estimates
Cisco’s AI quarter — orders raised to $9B, hyperscaler demand +217% YoY — ignited the AI complex; all major indices hit records, Dow retook 50,000. Trump-Xi’s 9-point summit (200 Boeing jets, Hormuz pact, trade board) broadened the rally; transports led at +1.40%. April import prices nearly doubled estimates (+1.9% vs +1.0%), compounding 6.0% PPI; December rate-hike odds now 39%. Warsh assumes Fed Chair tomorrow with the hottest trade inflation since 2022. Cerebras (CBRS) IPO +68% — largest tech debut of 2026.
Read full story · Comments are closed