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We post occasional thoughts and interesting observations about our U.S recession forecasting methodologies on this blog. To see all the posts on a single page, click here.

Yield Curve Inversion Forecast Update Nov 2018

By on December 12, 2018 in Reflections

Download article as PDF Based on the methodology discussed here we hereby update our U.S Yield-curve inversion forecast and subsequent recession and stock market peak forecasts. All the forecast dates have moved further back by 5 months:

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2nd derivative of WLEI posts warning

By on November 16, 2018 in Reflections

Download article as PDF The RecessionALERT Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) is essentially a first derivative indicator (rate of change). We can create the second derivative by measuring the percentage of time the WLEI has historically spent above the current reading. The history shows us that this is a good leading indicator for another WLEI […]

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SP500 was ahead of itself but tailwinds could be back

By on November 2, 2018 in Reflections

Download article as PDF During the 6 months running from March to September 2018, the SP500 was running counter to the seasonal average returns profile of the 4-year U.S Presidential Cycle: It appears the seasonality averages eventually got their way and the SP500 fell hard in October 2018, in what was supposed to be a […]

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Yield curve inversion & recession forecast

By on September 22, 2018 in Reflections, Research Papers

Download article as PDF There is naturally a lot of focus on the U.S yield-curve at the moment, as it moves relentlessly toward inversion (when short-term rates are higher than long-term rates.) Can the history of the yield-curve inversion provide for useful forecasting as to the start dates of the next U.S recession? The 10’s […]

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World headed for cyclical slowdown

By on June 8, 2018 in Reflections

Download article as PDF Despite the U.S leading economic indicators appearing healthy, the global economy appears to be headed for a slow down, with only 34% of the 40 countries we track having leading economic indicators (LEI’s) signalling growth ahead, and the actual GDP-weighted Global LEI growth now below zero: The specific country details are […]

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Dealing with a runaway market

By on January 18, 2018 in Reflections

Download article as PDF Those of you who have been following us since 2010 will identify us a perma-bulls. Even in the depths of the ECRI 2012 /Hussman recession calls we were firmly bullish on the US economy and stock market – quite contrary to the popular consensus at the time. Those subscribers who have […]

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Negative returns for SP500 in next decade

By on August 1, 2017 in Reflections

Download article as PDF The RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI) has been updated for 1Q17 and for the first time since 1999, is forecasting negative 10-year total returns for the SP500: The chart on the right shows that the RAVI continues to forecast SP500 decade-ahead total returns with relative accuracy, especially when one considers that the […]

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25 most important US economic indicators animated in 1 minute

By on July 26, 2017 in Reflections

Download article as PDF Here’s something fun we played with after just compiling our June Long leading US Index report for our subscribers

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Horrific revisions to HWOL data

By on March 8, 2017 in Reflections

Download article as PDF The Conference Board Help-Wanted-Online (HWOL) program is closely followed by us to get a feel for the labor market. It is one of over two dozen labor indicators we examine. The monthly HWOL data have been produced by the Conference Board since May 2005, replacing the Help Wanted Advertising Index of […]

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Mixed Signals from Labor Market

By on November 16, 2016 in Reflections

Download article as PDF We keep getting good news about employment and the labor market. But we rarely see the less optimistic numbers. THE GOOD Yellen’s Labor Dashboard (see here) is looking strong with all but 3 of the 9 components above pre-recession levels: The Employment Trend Index briefly wavered but now seems to be […]

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U.S Economy remains vulnerable

By on September 21, 2016 in Reflections

Download article as PDF It is interesting to see the recent re-appearance of articles relating to flashing warning signals of recession (see here and here and here) It is true that some genuinely troubling signals are starting to make themselves known. Let’s look at some of them. Heavy Duty Truck sales, a reliable long-leading indicator […]

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Unemployment more widespread than thought

By on August 22, 2016 in Reflections

Download article as PDF The Total Non-farm Payrolls data made another solid print for the month of July 2016, leading to the assumption that all is good with employment in the U.S: Similarly, if we examine the countrywide Civilian Unemployment Rate, we also get reassuring signs: However, if we dig deeper and examine the per-state […]

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NBER’s Big-4 Indicators had a narrow miss

By on August 12, 2016 in Reflections

Download article as PDF Reading through all the positive press about jobs numbers and so forth, its hard to comprehend that the 4 main indicators used by the National Buro of Economic Research (NBER) to determine US recessions, had a narrow miss recently. If you recall from our popular 2012 article, the NBER does not […]

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Number of countries with back-to-back negative quarterly GDP prints is rising

By on July 1, 2016 in Reflections

Download article as PDF The percentage of 41 OECD countries around the globe that have just posted a negative 1Q2016 on the back of a negative  4Q2015 (old fashion technical recession) has started to rise. Its nothing to be concerned about just yet but the rise itself, although shallow, is something worth watching as 2Q2016 […]

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U.S Economy most vulnerable to any shock since 2008

By on June 24, 2016 in Reflections

Download article as PDF The #Brexit vote caught the consensus view off-guard and stock markets, currencies and commodity prices have made large responses. This may be bringing up thoughts if Brexit could be the external shock that marks the decent of the U.S economy. Whilst we will not entertain making predictions on this complex matter, […]

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Recession Probability Roundup : Elevated levels

By on April 26, 2016 in Reflections

Download article as PDF NOTE : This is a subscriber-only article that was made open for public viewership on 20 May 2016. A few subscribers have been concerned by the recent jump in recession odds of the Headwinds Index model to 60% A probability of recession of 60% most certainly also implies probability of no […]

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Over 30% of States with rising unemployment

By on April 18, 2016 in Reflections

Download article as PDF The March 2016 figures are in for state-wide unemployment and the percentage of states with growing unemployment has risen to over 30% now: The useful thing with this breadth metric is that deterioration in unemployment is made visible long before it shows up in the average national unemployment rate. Whereas the […]

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Labor market not as strong as you think

By on April 11, 2016 in Reflections

Download article as PDF The strength of the labor market is constantly being trotted out in defense of the robust status of the US economy, but broad sets of labor data show this not to be the case. First, let us examine a very broad US labor market growth metric: This indicator needs to fall […]

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Animation : The incredible US employment recovery

By on April 7, 2016 in Reflections

Download article as PDF Below is an animation of the annual average unemployment rate per U.S state from 2011 onward. It’s quite incredible to see how unemployment was erased state-by-state over the years: However statewide improvements in employment have probably peaked-out as shown in the chart below, which depicts the aggregate (equal weighted) inverse 6-month […]

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How can we forecast 30% upside for 2016 with RAVI?

By on April 4, 2016 in Reflections

Download article as PDF The RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI) is currently forecasting 30% growth for 2016 for the SP500 with its 1-year forecast model. “How the heck is this possible given current overvaluation of the market?” we can hear you say. Let us show you how this is calculated so we can put the forecast […]

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