Commentary

The STM Seasonality Model is a unique composite that looks at average monthly gains, gain-to-loss ratios and percentage of winning months for 1,2,3 and 4 year cycles to arrive at a composite seasonality score for each month. For the last 18 months, the model has been running at 80% directional accuracy on calls on the […]

Further to our March 5th 2020 warning on a looming Coronavirus (COVID19)  global pandemic, the WHO has finally recognized as such and declared the outbreak an official global pandemic. It is not hard to see why, when one looks at the chart below: Whilst China has managed to stabilize new infections (assuming their numbers are […]

These days, its really hard to find worrying signs in US labor data. If one looks at the once famous Janet Yellen Labor Dashboard, apart from Job Openings, everything looks to be progressing fine, bar a small pullback here and there: Sure, the employment-to-population ratio (participation) has not come close to peak achieved in the […]

For two years, our comprehensive U.S monthly Leading Index (USMLEI) has been deteriorating, more recently to worrisome levels, with exactly half of the 23 components now in recession territory: What was really alarming was that this was occurring against the background of elevated RAVI local stock market valuations, an inverted yield curve, a deteriorating Global […]

Most of our breadth and liquidity indices are updated end-of-day with the exception of Great Trough Detector(GTR), Selling Pressure Diffusion (SPD) Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) These 3 models above are updated every 15-min during the course of a trading day. PRO subscription clients will from now on also be able to see the following new […]

It appears U.S investors’ concerns with global trade wars are dominating U.S stock market direction for the last two years: This is with valid reason, as prior research of ours (Global Economy affects U.S stock market returns) has pointed out that whilst a global recession does not necessarily result in a U.S recession, it can […]

There have been numerous queries about the new TRENDEX chart in the PRO Charts section. This model supersedes the Demark and the Demark+ trend counting models as it is a far superior methodology focusing on support and resistance levels as opposed to closes 4 days ago and moving averages. The methodology was a by-product of […]

This subscriber-only client alert has now been unlocked for public viewing. NOTE : The RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI) now warrants its own, more detailed, dedicated PDF report which you can now find in the REPORTS>RAVI menu tab: Well, it has finally happened, we have a recession and stock market bear warning from just about every […]