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MIB: All-Time Low — Consumer Sentiment Collapses as CPI Stalls the Fed and Semis Soar on Tariff Relief

By RecessionALERT on April 10, 2026 in Reflections

March CPI hit 3.3% (gasoline +21.2%) but core held at 2.6% — Fed stuck. Michigan consumer sentiment crashed to an all-time low of 47.6. Semis surged on Trump tariff exemptions (AVGO +4.69%, AMD +3.55%). TSMC confirmed AI demand is booming: Q1 revenue +35% to $35.7B. Meta locked in $21B with CoreWeave through 2032 (META +3.4%). FICO plunged 14% as the Senate opened a probe into mortgage credit score pricing.

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MIB: Ceasefire Without Peace — Iran’s Crypto Tolls Keep Hormuz Blocked as Amazon’s AI Billions Power a Fractured Rally

By RecessionALERT on April 9, 2026 in Reflections

Hormuz stays blocked — Iran demands crypto tolls from tankers; WTI +4.5% to $98.65, briefly clearing $100 intraday. Amazon (AMZN +5.6%) CEO Jassy disclosed AWS AI revenue hit $15B+ annualized. Meta signed a $21B AI cloud deal with CoreWeave through 2032. Anthropic’s Managed Agents launch hammered enterprise AI peers — PLTR -7.3%, ORCL -4%. IMF cut US 2026 growth forecast to 1.6%. S&P 500 +0.62% to 6,824 in post-ceasefire consolidation.

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MIB: Rebound Day — Meta-AMD Deal Calms AI Fears, Novo Nordisk Enters Price War, & All Eyes Turn to Nvidia

By RecessionALERT on February 24, 2026 in Reflections

Meta commits up to $100B to AMD GPUs (AMD +9.4%), reversing Monday’s AI selloff. S&P 500 bounced 0.77% from Monday’s “tariff disaster.” Novo Nordisk fell another 3% and announced 50% drug price cuts (dragging LLY -2.2%). PayPal surged 6.74% on Stripe acquisition reports. Bitcoin heading for worst February since 2022 crypto winter. All eyes on Nvidia earnings Wednesday.

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MIB: Sell America — Tariff Chaos & AI Disruption Send S&P Negative for 2026

By RecessionALERT on February 23, 2026 in Reflections

SCOTUS struck down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs 6-3 — hours later he imposed a new 15% global tariff under Section 122, sending the S&P 500 -1.04% to 6,837 and negative for 2026. IBM cratered 13.0%, its worst day since October 2000, and CrowdStrike fell 11.3% as Anthropic’s AI coding platform upended legacy tech and cybersecurity. Gold hit a new all-time record above $5,164 on a ‘Sell America’ rotation. Fed’s Waller called a March rate cut a ‘coin flip’ as tariff chaos scrambles the inflation outlook. J.P. Morgan raised recession odds to 35%.

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