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COVID-19 starting to look like a global pandemic

The newly reported cases of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in China appear to be tapering off, but it is the recent uptick of newly reported cases outside China that have reached alarming levels, resulting in total cases accelerating to just under 100,000: The secondary round of infections, most likely from travelers from China before the largest […]

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Massive rebound in US housing market

All 8 components of our comprehensive US Housing Market Index have posted solid and sustained gains in the last 6 months: Our detailed PDF report for Dec 2019 has been published to the REPORTS menu. According to many market watchers, there is no better barometer on the health of the U.S. economy than housing. It’s […]

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We found some worrying signs in labor data

These days, its really hard to find worrying signs in US labor data. If one looks at the once famous Janet Yellen Labor Dashboard, apart from Job Openings, everything looks to be progressing fine, bar a small pullback here and there: Sure, the employment-to-population ratio (participation) has not come close to peak achieved in the […]

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U.S economy likely dodged a bullet

For two years, our comprehensive U.S monthly Leading Index (USMLEI) has been deteriorating, more recently to worrisome levels, with exactly half of the 23 components now in recession territory: What was really alarming was that this was occurring against the background of elevated RAVI local stock market valuations, an inverted yield curve, a deteriorating Global […]

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New intraday charts

Most of our breadth and liquidity indices are updated end-of-day with the exception of Great Trough Detector(GTR), Selling Pressure Diffusion (SPD) Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) These 3 models above are updated every 15-min during the course of a trading day. PRO subscription clients will from now on also be able to see the following new […]

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Dramatic change in yield curve

The RecessionALERT yield-curve aggregate and diffusion has just made a dramatic reversal, with the percentage of 10 term-spreads that are inverted dropping from 70% to 40%: The 10YR less the 2YR narrowly averted an inversion 8 weeks ago and the 10YR-5YR and 10YR-3YR never came close to inversion. If one looks at the latest history […]

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Are trade war concerns valid?

It appears U.S investors’ concerns with global trade wars are dominating U.S stock market direction for the last two years: This is with valid reason, as prior research of ours (Global Economy affects U.S stock market returns) has pointed out that whilst a global recession does not necessarily result in a U.S recession, it can […]

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About the new TRENDEX SP-500 model

There have been numerous queries about the new TRENDEX chart in the PRO Charts section. This model supersedes the Demark and the Demark+ trend counting models as it is a far superior methodology focusing on support and resistance levels as opposed to closes 4 days ago and moving averages. The methodology was a by-product of […]

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Yield Curve inversion suggests mild recession

There has been acute interest in the inversions currently taking place on the term-spreads around the world: And this comes as no surprise, since more than half of the world’s sovereign yield curves have now inverted… Right now, 70% of the U.S yield-curve cluster comprising the 10/5/3/2/1 year bond yields are inverted as shown below. […]

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We likely avoided a full yield-curve inversion

In our early June post “Is the U.S Yield Curve Inversion locked in?” we mused that only portions of the term-spread complex had inverted and most likely would remain that way, allowing us to avoid a full scale term-spread inversion. As the chart below shows, this is indeed the case – with only 50% of […]

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RAVI Warning issued

This subscriber-only client alert has now been unlocked for public viewing. NOTE : The RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI) now warrants its own, more detailed, dedicated PDF report which you can now find in the REPORTS>RAVI menu tab: Well, it has finally happened, we have a recession and stock market bear warning from just about every […]

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Is the U.S Yield Curve Inversion locked in?

In our February 2019 commentary we forecast that the 10’s and 1’s yield-curve would invert in May. The data below is taken from that market commentary, with a warning that the indicated dates of recession have a very wide standard deviation over the historical record: The 10’s and 1’s term spread has been inverted since […]

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Unemployment is worse than it looks

The U.S civilian unemployment rate reached new lows of 3.6% in April – numbers last seen 51 years ago in 1968: There are a number of ways to use the national unemployment rate to signal recession, but almost all of them are co-incident to slightly lagging in the warning they provide. We have the most […]

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What are odds of a SP500 reversal?

The SP-500 has corrected 4.35% from its recent high achieved a couple of days after our repeated warnings of high correction risks. The question that naturally comes to mind now, as we embark on this corrective phase, is what the odds of the worst being over are. We have been working on a statistical model […]

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Global Growth Roundup – 4Q2018

NOTE : The following charts are extracts from our monthly Global Economy Report available with a standard subscription. Global Economic Activity slowing at the fastest pace since 2011 The cumulative GDP growth for the 4 quarters of 2018 for all 41 major countries covered by the OECD display a stark contrast between the best and […]

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U.S Stock Market Valuations continue to warn

We have updated the RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI) forecast models for the SP500 using 4Q2018 data. Stock market valuations continue to pose a “clear and present danger” to positive economic and SP500 returns outcomes, and have worsened since our last warning . One and two year SP500 forecasts continue to offer relatively accurate short-run estimates […]

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Yield curve inversion forecast update – Feb ’19

Based on the methodology discussed here we hereby update our U.S Yield-curve inversion forecast and subsequent recession and stock market peak forecasts. All the forecast dates have moved foward by 1 month as the yield curve continues to print below its regression mean: As a matter of interest, 60% of all 10 possible term-spreads have […]

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World in depths of business cycle slowdown

On 8th June 2018 we penned a warning that the worlds’ major 41 economies, as tracked by the OECD, were headed for a synchronized business cycle slowdown. You can read the article here : World headed for cyclical slowdown. Indeed, as you can see below, for quite a few months shortly afterward, we bottomed out […]

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WLEI updated and some news

The U.S Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) as at 01 Feb 2019 has been updated to our front page together with historical vintages file. Here is a snapshot of the last few vintages: We seem to be revising down each week but the overall shape of the WLEI still hints at an index attempting to […]

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Yield curve inversion forecast update – Dec ’18

Based on the methodology discussed here we hereby update our U.S Yield-curve inversion forecast and subsequent recession and stock market peak forecasts. All the forecast dates have moved foward by 1 month:

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