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MIB: Triple Shock — OpenAI Revenue Miss, UAE Exits OPEC, and Trump Rejects Iran’s Hormuz Deal Ahead of $700B AI Earnings Week

By RecessionALERT on April 28, 2026 in Reflections

OpenAI missed revenue and user targets (WSJ), gutting AI chip stocks — AMAT -5.87%, KLAC -4.79%, AVGO -4.39%; Nasdaq -1.01%. UAE quit OPEC after 58 years, effective May 1. Trump rejected Iran’s Hormuz reopening proposal — Brent hit $112.70 intraday, US gas $4.18/gal (highest since Aug 2022). Powell’s final FOMC opened Tuesday. Coca-Cola (+3.86%), Visa, and Starbucks all beat and raised guidance. GOOGL/MSFT/META Wednesday — $700B AI capex on trial.

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MIB: Paper-Thin S&P/Nasdaq Records as Hormuz Re-Escalates, OpenAI Decouples from Microsoft, & Powell Convenes His Final FOMC

By RecessionALERT on April 27, 2026 in Reflections

S&P 500 (+0.12%) and Nasdaq (+0.01%) eked out paper-thin records as Brent spiked above $101 on stalled Hormuz talks. Trump cancelled Pakistan envoys; IEA warned supply won’t recover for two years. Qualcomm surged 12% on a report OpenAI is building an AI smartphone chip with QCOM and MediaTek. Microsoft-OpenAI exclusivity ended, freeing OpenAI to deploy on AWS/GCP. Powell’s likely final FOMC opens Tuesday; Warsh Senate vote Wednesday. Verizon posted its first positive Q1 phone adds in 13 years.

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MIB: Triple Catalyst Day — Iran Ceasefire Crashes Oil, Record Bank Earnings Lift S&P Past 7,000, Trump Threatens Fed Independence

By RecessionALERT on April 15, 2026 in Reflections

Trump threatens to fire Powell by May if he doesn’t resign, rattling bond markets. Oil crashes 7.87% as Iran ceasefire extended — Trump says war ‘very close to over.’ Fed Beige Book warns gas at $4/gallon and hiring freezes spreading. IEA sees first global oil demand decline since COVID. S&P 500 hits record 7,022 — above 7,000 for the first time. Tesla rockets 8% on AI5 chip milestone (UBS upgrades from Sell). BAC, MS, BLK all post record/near-record Q1 earnings.

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MIB: Iran Blinks — WTI Craters 7%, S&P Rallies, But Gold at $4,866 Says the Market Doesn’t Believe It

By RecessionALERT on April 14, 2026 in Reflections

US-Iran talks could restart Thursday — WTI crude -6.86% to $92, S&P 500 +1.18% to 6,967. March PPI +0.5% vs +1.1% feared; core +0.1% — no second-wave inflation yet. IEA: 2026 oil demand to contract for first time since COVID. Gold hit new record $4,866/oz (+2.08%) even on a risk-on day. JPMorgan record $16.5B profit but NII cut (JPM -3%); WFC -5.70% on revenue miss. Oracle surged +4.74% on history’s largest AI fuel cell deal with Bloom Energy.

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