August | 2024 | RecessionAlert

Archive | August, 2024

MODELS : New Optimum Market timing Page

By RecessionALERT on August 31, 2024 in Research Papers

All the OPTIMUM brand of SP-500 market timing models have been moved under a new page and menu item at https://recessionalert.com/pro-optimum/ These models span various time horizons and have explicit entry/exit rules used in their back testing that can easily be replicated by subscribers into the future. They are defined as Macro models that work across bull and bear markets and bull-market models that are designed and optimized to perform during bull markets only. One of the requirements of OPTIMUM […]

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Economy : Upcoming FED rate cuts? Not so fast!

By RecessionALERT on August 9, 2024 in Reflections

The official data the National Bureau of Economic Research (the arbiters of U.S recession declarations, also known as NBER) are looking at to determine the coincident (current) status of the U.S economy, shows the economy may be slowing, but its not down or even OUT yet: It is hard to imagine the FED are not taking guidance from this either when pondering rate cuts. Looking at the the month-on-month growth index that the headline index is created from with a […]

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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.