US-Iran talks could restart Thursday — WTI crude -6.86% to $92, S&P 500 +1.18% to 6,967. March PPI +0.5% vs +1.1% feared; core +0.1% — no second-wave inflation yet. IEA: 2026 oil demand to contract for first time since COVID. Gold hit new record $4,866/oz (+2.08%) even on a risk-on day. JPMorgan record $16.5B profit but NII cut (JPM -3%); WFC -5.70% on revenue miss. Oracle surged +4.74% on history’s largest AI fuel cell deal with Bloom Energy.
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MIB: Iran Blinks — WTI Craters 7%, S&P Rallies, But Gold at $4,866 Says the Market Doesn’t Believe It
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MIB: Blockade Economics — Hormuz Chokes Oil Markets, Traps the Fed, and Markets Bet on Diplomacy
S&P 500 +1% as investors bet on Iran diplomacy despite Hormuz blockade and oil near $98. Oracle soared 12.7% on AI utilities platform launch (ORCL). Goldman Sachs beat Q1 estimates but fell 2% on FICC miss (GS). Trump threatened 50% tariffs on China over Iran arms shipment reports. Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting hit 3.56% — rate cuts now a 2027 story. Meta set to overtake Google in global digital ad revenue for first time ever.
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MIB: Rally on Borrowed Peace — Iran Hopes Lift S&P 2.9% but $100 Oil and a Quantum Threat Linger
S&P 500 +2.91% and Nasdaq +3.43% on WSJ report Trump is willing to end Iran war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Gas hits $4/gallon — highest since 2022 — even as peace talks start. Oracle cut 30,000 jobs (18% of workforce) to fund AI data centers; $58B in new debt. Google warned quantum computers could crack Bitcoin in 9 minutes. Eli Lilly acquired Centessa for $7.8B to enter narcolepsy drugs. Nike beat Q3 estimates but fell 3% AH on weak China.
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MIB: Stagflation Trap — Iran Sends Oil Past $101 While Google’s AI Crushes Semis and Meta Faces $Billions in Verdicts
Iran denies US peace talks, pushing Brent crude past $101 and extending the Hormuz chokehold. Google’s TurboQuant crushed semiconductor stocks (LRCX -9.4%, AMAT -8.3%, AMD -7.5%, MU -7%). Meta shed 8% on a landmark social media addiction verdict. Nasdaq entered correction territory (-10%). OECD raised US inflation forecast to 4.2% for 2026, highest in G7. BlackRock downgraded US equities to neutral as stagflation fears mount.
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MIB: Iran Diplomacy Lifts Stocks, ARM Disrupts Nvidia’s Supply Chain, and the Recession Clock Keeps Ticking
Iran peace talks lift markets (S&P +0.54%) — Trump sends 15-point proposal; Tehran rejects, demands Hormuz control. ARM +12% on plan to sell own chips with Meta as anchor customer. SpaceX files for IPO this week — $1.75T valuation, biggest in history. Google TurboQuant 6x memory compression sends MU -3.4%. AMD and Intel +7% on CPU price hike reports. Gold +2.3% to $4,535 as stagflation hedge persists.
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MIB: Four Days to War — Iran Denial Sends Gold to $4,509 as Tech Cracks and Bonds Flash Stagflation
Iran ceasefire countdown (4 days remain) fades as Iran denies talks — Gold surges to $4,509 (+1.58%). Alphabet (GOOGL -3.85%) faces EU DMA fine deadline tomorrow; potential $34B fine looms. Tech rotation intensifies: Nasdaq -0.77% vs. Russell 2000 +0.53%; Oracle -4.70% despite BofA Buy reinstated. GE Vernova +3.03% on Morgan Stanley $960 target. Richmond Fed manufacturing hits 0 — first non-negative in over a year. Goldman Sachs delays first Fed rate cut to September.
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