Archive | November, 2013

FED in the driving seat

The chart below shows how the FED is firmly in the driving seat for the U.S stock markets through the monthly growth of their balance sheet, primarily through the purchase of U.S Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities. You can clearly see why talk of tapering sends shudders down everyone’s spine: It is interesting to note […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

Labor Market flags U.S Recession on horizon

Labor data last week surprised to the upside and pointed to an improvement in hiring and by implication the labor market. However, our leading Labor Market Growth Index, which tracks various diversified aspects of the general U.S labor market, experienced a sharp drop for the data representing the end of  October 2013, to below the […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

Things could get fun from here…

At last, a decent pullback with a fat red candle on the SP-500. If the premise (see “Seven Paw-prints of the Bear“) is that we are in a well established bull market (we don’t care if its liquidity or economically fueled) then this could become a desperately needed “buy on the dip” opportunity to get aboard […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

  RECESSIONALERT,  WED 20 OCT : THERE IS 1x PRO ALERT AND 1 X MACRO-ECONOMIC WARNING