Archive | July, 2019

We likely avoided a full yield-curve inversion

In our early June post “Is the U.S Yield Curve Inversion locked in?” we mused that only portions of the term-spread complex had inverted and most likely would remain that way, allowing us to avoid a full scale term-spread inversion. As the chart below shows, this is indeed the case – with only 50% of […]

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Google Search Trends as Recession Forecasting Tool

With the emergence of Google as the dominant internet search engine, its search-term usage can provide a real-time view of current public interests in numerous issues such as economics, politics, health and so forth. Thus, if large groups of people are entering certain economically-linked search terms, this could provide a clue about the general public’s […]

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  RECESSIONALERT, SAT 25 SEPT : THERE ARE 1 x MACRO-ECONOMIC AND 4 x PRO ALERTS