AI-financing fears sent the Nasdaq 100 down 2.50% to its lowest close since September 16 as CoreWeave sank 12% and the chip index fell for an eighth straight session, its longest streak since 2008. Software followed: PANW -7.63%, PLTR -7.22%, CRWD -7.02%. Brent touched $110 after a missile was intercepted near Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu hub. Import prices rose 1.1% in September, an 8.1% annual pace. Warsh gave no October signal and hold odds rose to 85.1%; the VIX jumped 21%.
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MIB Daily: The AI Trade Now Has a Credit Problem, CoreWeave Bonds Top 15% as Money Flees Tech for Energy and Staples, and $110 Brent With 8.1% Import Inflation Leaves the Fed No Easy Out
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MIB Daily: The Hottest PPI Since 2022 Sent the 10-Year Down 10 bps, Small Caps Rallied as Chips Neared a $2 Trillion Rout, and Diesel Keeps Inflation Hot Into Warsh’s Last Word
Producer prices jumped 1.3% in September, the hottest monthly print since March 2022, yet the 10-year yield fell 10.2 bps to 5.084%. The Dow gained 1.08% to retake 52,000 as the Russell 2000 rose 1.38%, while chips extended a rout nearing $2 trillion since last week — DELL -6.80%. CoreWeave’s credit gauge hit record default odds before Nvidia’s Huang defended it. Retail sales beat, but the control group rose just 0.1%. WTI jumped 2.63% on an 8.6M-barrel crude draw.
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MIB Daily: The AI Trade Failed a Credit Test as CoreWeave Bonds Topped 15%, Hot CPI Lifted Hike Odds to 47% Ahead of PPI, Long Bonds Bet on Slower Growth, and Healthcare, Staples and Energy Took the Lead
Hot September CPI (3.7% vs 3.6% expected, core 2.6%) roughly doubled October rate-hike odds to about 47%, and the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.02%. AI infrastructure cracked: CoreWeave’s bonds topped a 15% yield and its stock sank 15.46%, while Oracle dropped 8.83%. Barclays cut Dell to Equal Weight and it slid 11.27%. Iran admitted new tactics against Hormuz shipping; WTI rose 1.09% to $95.17, its highest close since September 24. Healthcare and staples rallied; RBC swapped tech for health care.
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MIB Daily: AI Is Now the Fed’s Inflation Problem as Applied Materials Sinks 6.69%, Aramco Burns After Oil Settles, and BlackRock and Citi Step Back From Stocks at a 5.2% 10-Year Before CPI
NY Fed Vice Chair Williams sees one more hike this year and none in 2027, a ceiling futures refuse to price, while Boston’s Collins wants rates “a bit further” higher. A Houthi missile set part of Saudi Aramco’s Dhahran headquarters ablaze after oil settled. Bank of America drew a $1.2B anti-money-laundering penalty on the eve of earnings. Applied Materials sank 6.69% on a missing spending forecast while Meta rose 2.63%. Citi and BlackRock both stepped back from US stocks.
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MIB Daily: A China DRAM Scare Sank Memory Stocks as Meta Rallied on AI It Can Sell, a Riyadh Strike Lifted Brent to $106, and Hammack Wants More Restriction Before Wednesday’s CPI
China’s CXMT reported next-generation DRAM progress and memory stocks slid: Sandisk fell 5.97% and Micron 3.88% as the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.71% while the Dow gained 0.38%. A deadly missile strike on Riyadh’s airport lifted Brent 1.35% to $106.13. Cleveland Fed’s Hammack says more restriction is needed. Meta jumped 3.38% on new Muse AI models. JPMorgan and Goldman underwrote just $1.3 billion of a $5 billion AI cloud loan. September CPI lands Wednesday, expected at 3.7% year over year.
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MIB Daily: OpenAI’s $70B Saved Software but Not the Chips, Long-Run Inflation Expectations Hit 3.5% and Lifted the 2-Year, and Washington Set a Hearing on Firing Fed Governor Cook
Software lifted the S&P 500 0.59% back above 7,800 after Bloomberg said OpenAI expects at least $70B in annualized revenue by year-end, but Intel and AMD kept sliding. Michigan long-run inflation expectations hit 3.5%, the highest since May, while the 2-year yield rose 3.7 bps. The White House set a Nov 5 hearing on whether to remove Fed Governor Cook. Treasury licensed Russian diesel imports through April 2027. Apple reportedly cut iPhone 18 Pro component orders at least 15%.
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MIB Daily: OpenAI’s $20B Revenue Gap Asks Who Pays for AI, Sinking Chips as Gulf Shut-Ins Push Crude to $91, SpaceX Hits the Carriers and Bonds Rally Into Fed Hike Talk Before CPI
An FT report that OpenAI’s revenue run-rate sits about $20 billion below earlier signals sank chipmakers, dragging the Nasdaq 100 down 1.39% as Oracle fell 5.48%. Hurricane Isaias shut in 63% of Gulf oil output, and WTI settled up $3.21 at $91.49. Trump ruled out striking Iran before the midterms. Waller and Musalem both signaled more hikes, yet the 10-year fell 5.9 bps. After the bell, SpaceX agreed to buy nationwide 800 MHz spectrum, and AT&T fell 6.75% after hours.
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MIB Daily: AI Is Now Competing With Treasuries for Money, as SpaceX’s $40B Debt Plan and a Split Fed Lift the 10-Year to a 24-Year High and Small Caps Pay Ahead of Thursday’s 30-Year Auction
Fed minutes show most officials expect another hike by year-end and record market concern that AI borrowing is lifting term premiums. The 10-year yield touched a 24-year intraday high of 5.364% before a strong $39B auction pulled it back. IEA members agreed to speed up emergency oil releases, and WTI settled down $1.16 despite a crude draw. Deere fell 3.8% on a new FTC-USDA farm-equipment inquiry. Platinum dropped 4.1% as the dollar posted its highest close in 122 sessions.
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MIB Daily: The S&P 500’s 7,800 Record Runs on AI as the Fed Calls It an Inflation Shock, Google’s Nuclear Deal Lifts Constellation 12% While Chip Equipment Slides, and $101 Brent Squeezes Freight Before the Minutes
The S&P 500 topped 7,800 for its first record close since August (+0.58%), even with the 10-year at 5.274%. Constellation Energy jumped 12.25% on a 20-year Google nuclear deal, lifting Utilities 2.79%. Marvell rose 5.81% after setting a $70-90B fiscal 2031 revenue goal. Fed’s Daly named AI demand alongside oil and tariffs as shocks that could force more hikes if they compound. The August trade deficit widened to $105.6B. Skydance began trading after closing its Warner Bros. Discovery deal.
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MIB Daily: Stocks Priced the Fed, Bonds Priced the Bill, as the Nasdaq Hit a Record With the 10-Year at 5.315%, Services Prices at a 2022 High and a 2% Oil Drop the Only Inflation Relief Before This Week’s Auctions
Megacap tech carried the Nasdaq to a record close (+1.05%) and Nvidia to its own record (+2.12%) as October Fed-hike odds fell to 24%. Bonds dissented: the 10-year rose to 5.315%, its highest close in over two decades per Reuters. ISM’s services prices index climbed to 74.0, highest since July 2022. Crude fell about 2% on recovering Mideast exports despite weekend Houthi strikes on Aramco. Schneider to buy PTC for $23.7B; PTC +33%. Bolsonaro upset lifts Petrobras ADRs 11.5%.
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MIB Daily: The 29K Jobs Miss Moved the Date, Not the Destination, as the Nasdaq 100 Hit a Record, a 5.28% 10-Year Kept Duration Exposed and G7 Diesel Barrels Met a Sixth Hormuz Strike
September payrolls rose 29,000 against roughly 90,000 expected, unemployment hit 4.2% and October hike odds sank to about 23%. Stocks cheered: S&P 500 +0.73%, Nasdaq 100 at a record. Bonds didn’t, with the 2-year up 4.0 bps after Dallas Fed’s Logan called for 50 bps or more of further hikes. The G7 agreed a 100 million-barrel reserve release and WTI fell 1.9%, but a sixth vessel since Sunday was struck in Hormuz. TSLA rose 4.65% on a delivery beat.
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MIB Daily: Brent Tops $102 on China’s Fuel-Export Halt and the 10-Year Hits 5.34%, Long Yields Tighten for the Fed as Banks and Junk Credit Strain, and a $2 Trillion Anthropic IPO Tests AI Leadership
Brent jumped 4.3% to $102.22 as Chinese refiners suspended October fuel exports. The 10-year yield touched 5.34% intraday, its highest since 2002, then closed down 4.8 bps; UK 30-year gilts topped 6%. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson called energy “the predominant factor” in rising inflation as ISM’s prices gauge leapt to 77.9. Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage rate hit 7.28% and junk CDS widened to April levels. Anthropic eyes a November IPO at up to $2 trillion.
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MIB Daily: The Bond Market Is Doing the Fed’s Hiking, a 5.292% 10-Year Defies Cooler PCE as Tech Stands Alone, Banks and Pharma Get New Rules and Crude’s September Surge Tests the Pause Before Friday’s Payrolls
A cooler August PCE cut October hike odds to about 37% from 51%, and Goldman pushed its next-hike call to December. Bonds balked: the 10-year rose 5.0 bps to 5.292%, highest since April 2002 per Investing.com, and 30-year mortgage rates hit 7.30%. A late selloff left only the Nasdaq 100 higher. The Fed finalized a stress-test overhaul over Barr’s dissent, CMS tied Part B drug rebates to international prices, and Amazon signed a 20-year nuclear deal with Constellation.
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MIB Daily: A Later Hike Is Not an Easier One as the 30-Year Hits Its Highest Since 2002, Crude Slips Below $90 While Confidence Sinks, and OpenAI’s $70B Run-Rate Lifts Chip Equipment as AI Agents Threaten Apple
WTI slid 3.98% to $88.91 as Kpler counted 12.5 million barrels loaded at Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu, while Iran awaits a formal US reply through Qatar. NY Fed’s Williams saw “no need for urgency,” pulling October hike odds to about a coin flip, but Barr and Goolsbee held the tightening line. The 30-year still touched its highest since 2002 intraday. Confidence sank to 81.9 against 89.2 expected. Axios put OpenAI’s run-rate near $70B as chip-equipment names lifted the Nasdaq 100.
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MIB Daily: Iran’s Oil Shock Now Runs Through the 10-Year at 5.241%, Gold Fails as the Hedge, META Drops 4.79% on an OpenAI Rival, and Hot Factory Costs Make Wednesday’s PCE the October Hike Test
Trump rejected Iran’s Hormuz roadmap, and the damage ran through bonds: the 10-year closed at 5.241%, topping last week’s high, and the S&P 500 fell 0.77%. Fed Governor Cook said the labor market appears able to handle higher rates. Gold sank 4.02% and silver 5.83%. META fell 4.79% on a reported rival OpenAI agent, while NVDA rose 1.68% on a $150B buyback boost. Boeing slid about 6% as the FAA held up 737 MAX 10 certification.
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MIB Daily: Good News Is Now the Fed’s Problem, as MSFT +3.66% and a 1.6% Capex Jump Carry AI Into Industrials, Xi Leaves Without Deals and Wednesday’s Core PCE Decides an October Hike
Microsoft (MSFT) jumped 3.66%, leading the Dow and S&P 500, after a Copilot overhaul putting its agents on usage-based pricing. Core capital-goods orders rose 1.6%, but Michigan year-ahead inflation expectations climbed to 4.6%, keeping an October hike in play. WTI fell 2.01% on hopes of a phased US-Iran Hormuz deal. Xi left Washington with no new purchase deals and advanced chips off the table. BofA double-downgraded Nike (NKE) to Underperform with a $30 target, six days before earnings.
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MIB Daily: The Bond Market Is Doing the Fed’s Job, the 10-Year Hits 5.225% and the 7-Year Clears at a 1993 High as Brent Tops $107, and Only Meta Holds the Line While Utilities and Housing Pay
The 10-year jumped 10.9 bps to 5.225%, its highest since 2007, and the 7-year auction cleared at the highest yield since 1993. Brent surged 4.25% to $107.46 on an Iranian threat to widen the war and Houthi missiles aimed at Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu terminal. The Fed’s Williams called another hike by year-end “reasonable.” META +4.50% held the S&P 500 flat as eight of 11 sectors fell. Anthropic committed $11.6B to Akamai’s cloud. ORCL -3.47% on a Project Jupiter force-majeure notice.
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MIB Daily: The 10-Year Hit 5.11%, Its Highest Since 2007, as a Hot PMI Turned Good News Into Rate Risk and Brent Topped $100, Leaving Stocks With No Bond Hedge and Small Caps and Utilities Hit Hardest
The 10-year yield jumped 16.2 bps to 5.110%, highest since June 2007, after a hot flash PMI (58.4) and a weak 5-year auction. Stocks fell with bonds: S&P 500 -0.75%, Russell 2000 -1.77%. Fed’s Barr: further adjustments “likely to be needed”; October hike odds near 73%. Brent surged 4.43% back above $100 on Iran’s UN defiance despite a US crude build. McDonald’s sank 4.81% on flat-traffic guidance. Bessent is “open” to extending the China truce before Thursday’s Xi summit.
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MIB Daily: AI Came for the Banks as Schwab Fell 6.1% and Memory Lifted the Nasdaq 100 to a Record, Iran’s Hormuz Offer Sank WTI 2.73%, and Barkin’s “We’ll See” Leaves Rate Risk Unpriced
Wall Street split: the Nasdaq 100 closed above its June peak as SanDisk (+6.82%) and Micron (+5.00%) ran, while the S&P bank index sank 3% on AI-disruption fears from Meta’s Muse agent, with Schwab down 6.1%. WTI fell 2.73%, a fifth straight loss, after Iran offered to reopen Hormuz within seven days. Trump pushed a diesel export ban; Valero, also downgraded, slid 4.10%. Fed’s Barkin on more hikes: “We’ll see.” Royal Caribbean tumbled 6.14% on a $3B Sandals stake report.
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MIB Daily: Stocks Priced the End of the Oil Shock and the Fed Did Not, as Brent Slipped Below $100, Musalem Eyed More Hikes and Intel and Meta Jumped 11%+ With No Dated Catalyst Before the Trump-Xi Summit
Crude fell a fourth session, Brent slipping below $100 (-3.77%) as Saudi tankers massed in the Gulf and Iran relayed its Hormuz terms; the S&P 500 rose 1.49% to within 0.4% of its record. Intel (+12.17%), AMD (+9.95%) and Meta (+11.34%) lifted the Nasdaq 100 2.83%. Fed’s Musalem said more hikes are likely; the 2-year rose as the 10-year fell 4.2 bps. Paramount settled the states’ suit, sending WBD up 10.79%. Bitcoin jumped 7.57% to an eight-month high.
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