Archive | February, 2019

Yield curve inversion forecast update – Feb ’19

Based on the methodology discussed here we hereby update our U.S Yield-curve inversion forecast and subsequent recession and stock market peak forecasts. All the forecast dates have moved foward by 1 month as the yield curve continues to print below its regression mean: As a matter of interest, 60% of all 10 possible term-spreads have […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

World in depths of business cycle slowdown

On 8th June 2018 we penned a warning that the worlds’ major 41 economies, as tracked by the OECD, were headed for a synchronized business cycle slowdown. You can read the article here : World headed for cyclical slowdown. Indeed, as you can see below, for quite a few months shortly afterward, we bottomed out […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

WLEI updated and some news

The U.S Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) as at 01 Feb 2019 has been updated to our front page together with historical vintages file. Here is a snapshot of the last few vintages: We seem to be revising down each week but the overall shape of the WLEI still hints at an index attempting to […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

  RECESSIONALERT,  WED 20 OCT : THERE IS 1x PRO ALERT AND 1 X MACRO-ECONOMIC WARNING