Archive | November, 2018

2nd derivative of WLEI posts warning

The RecessionALERT Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) is essentially a first derivative indicator (rate of change). We can create the second derivative by measuring the percentage of time the WLEI has historically spent above the current reading. The history shows us that this is a good leading indicator for another WLEI metric, namely the percentage […]

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SP500 was ahead of itself but tailwinds could be back

During the 6 months running from March to September 2018, the SP500 was running counter to the seasonal average returns profile of the 4-year U.S Presidential Cycle: It appears the seasonality averages eventually got their way and the SP500 fell hard in October 2018, in what was supposed to be a strong month. In all […]

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  RECESSIONALERT,  WED 20 OCT : THERE IS 1x PRO ALERT AND 1 X MACRO-ECONOMIC WARNING