Archive | May, 2024

Complacency about personal finances, stock-market & economy has bottomed.

Composites created from U.S geography limited internet searches for 8 search-terms we have found most aligned to uncertainty and fear regarding personal finances, the stock market and the economy have bottomed and appear to be on the rise: Both the equal-weighted composite and our preferred measure, the “search-volume weighted” composite bottomed in January 2024. This […]

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A leading indicator for U.S stocks

The most powerful leading indicators we have found for U.S stocks over the medium-term horizon are the net percentage of 39 OECD countries with rising leading economic indices (LEI’s) and the net percentage of 39 central banks that are easing rates. They achieve maximum correlation with the NYSE annual percentage change with 7 and 10 […]

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 IMPORTANT : A NEW SAHM MODEL HAS BEEN DEVELOPED THAT ACCOUNTS FOR INCREASED LABOR SUPPLY (IMMIGRATION) THAT IS SUPPOSEDLY SKEWING THE MODEL.  SEE THE SAHM RESEARCH NOTE, NEW SECTION 13