The September FOMC was repriced three times in five sessions and ended where it started: Barr said hike, Waller said hold, and Friday’s 162,000-payroll blowout against a 56,000 consensus flipped implied odds back to 58-60%. Underneath it, five days of US-Iran exchanges put WTI up 9.22% and took retail diesel to an all-time record $5.850, six days before the CPI on which Waller staked his vote. Technology split in half: Sandisk +17.17% against Palo Alto -10.32%.
Tag Archives | Kevin Warsh
MIB Weekly: The S&P Went Nowhere and Everything Under It Moved, WTI +9.22% With Energy Equities Not Following, SNDK +17.17% vs PANW -10.32%, FICO -16.68% by Directive, September Repriced Three Times, Still a Coin Flip
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MIB Daily: Payrolls 162K Against 56K Bought a September Hike, the President Demanded Cuts Anyway, and Memory Rallied Regardless as Record $5.850 Diesel Leaves One CPI Print Deciding the Meeting
August payrolls tripled expectations at 162,000 and flipped September back to a coin-flip hike — implied odds 58-60%. The selloff was narrow: Netflix -5.35%, Palantir -4.49%, while memory ran hard (Sandisk +11.90%, Micron +6.10%). Tesla -5.92% as NHTSA opened an audit query into how it self-certified the Cybercab. FICO -16.68% after FHFA opened VantageScore to every GSE lender. Retail diesel set a record $5.850 a gallon, +57.6% year-on-year. Novartis’s Lp(a) drug failed after the close; Amgen and Ionis fell harder.
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MIB Daily: A VIX at 14.92 Says Nobody Is Paying for the Hormuz Tail, WTI +3.50% and Utilities Uncapped With PG&E -18%, While the Two-Year Refused to Confirm a 72% Hike Bet and AI Became the Hiding Place
US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s overnight retaliation sent WTI up 3.50% to $86.32 and European gas to its highest since January 2023. Nine of eleven sectors closed red. California’s wildfire bill omitted the liability cap: PG&E -18%, Edison -23%. The FTC and 22 states sued Amazon over a $20bn ad-auction scheme; AMZN -2.50%. Warsh went hawkish at the G20 but the two-year refused to confirm. Aon bought USI for $17bn, all debt-funded.
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MIB Weekly: The S&P Rose 0.49% and Told You Nothing, Warsh Sent the 2Y Up 12.2bp and Hike Odds to 68%, Chicago PMI Hit 47.1, Gold and Semicap Took the Hit, Marvell Paid 10.28% for 90bp of Margin
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole keynote to say the central bank has “more work to do” on inflation, and the two-year Treasury yield ended the week 12.2 basis points higher at 4.354% — September is now a live hike meeting, with Polymarket’s 2026 hike contract up twelve points to 68%. The damage landed on gold (−3.50%) and the Russell 2000 (−1.51%), not the S&P 500 (+0.49%). Friday’s rate move then took semiconductor equipment down 4–5%.
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MIB Daily: The Index Lied, Warsh’s 12.2bp Two-Year Move Hit Gold -3.34% and Semi Equipment -5% While the S&P Held, and Chicago PMI at 47.1 Asks Whether the Hike Trade Survives Next Week’s ISM
Warsh’s Jackson Hole debut put a September hike back on the table: the two-year jumped 12.2bp to 4.354%, its biggest day since June. Gold -3.34%, silver -4.31% and the Russell -1.39% took the hit while the S&P shrugged at -0.25%. He also retired forward guidance outright. Chicago PMI cratered to 47.1. PayPal -12.71% after Advent and Stripe walked from a $53bn bid it had already rejected. Semis unwound 4-5%; Amazon +3.95%. BioNTech -8.37% on a halted cancer trial.
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MIB Daily: One Sector Bought the Rally on the Day Washington Proposed Taxing It, Tech +3.09% Against an NYSE Down 0.38%, Three Fed Hawks Moved the Two-Year 0.8bp, PANW +12.83% on an Unsigned Deal, Warsh Friday
Technology surged 3.09% and carried the S&P 500 up 0.72% — while the NYSE Composite fell and eight of eleven sectors closed red. Cleveland’s Hammack says “now is the time to act” on a rate hike; the two-year moved 0.8bp. July’s goods trade gap blew out to $118.8B on a 68.7% jump in Korean chip imports — the same flow Washington is weighing tariffing. Palo Alto +12.83% on deal reports. Nvidia is said to be buying Hugging Face for $12.9B.
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MIB Daily: September Prices a 38% Hike, Not a Cut, With the 2-Year at 4.209% and the 10-Year Up 1bp on 3.7% PCE, a 4.6% Atlanta Fed Nowcast Splits a 1.5% Q2, and Record $4 Gas Lands With Crude Lower Before Warsh
Markets barely moved on a hot headline PCE — but futures now price a September rate HIKE near 38%, not a cut. Meta paid $16.7bn and accepted a decade-long two-hour daily cap on teen accounts. America is heading for its first $4 Labor Day on record, and it’s a refining story, not a crude one. Boston Scientific’s cyberattack has stopped it shipping orders worldwide. Atlanta Fed’s Q3 nowcast turned back up to 4.6%. Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote lands Friday.
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MIB Weekly: Treasury’s Backstop Lasted Twenty-Four Hours, Chips Fell 5.5% Twice With 30 of 30 Down, a Tariff Pause Was Never Published, and Gold and Bitcoin Took What Semis Lost
Treasury doubled its long-bond buybacks on Wednesday and the market unwound the entire move by Thursday’s close, leaving the S&P 500 down 1.43% and both yields higher on the week. The chip complex fell roughly 5.5% twice in three sessions, Intel -12.13%, while Merck added 12.30% on the first positive Phase 3 for an individualised cancer vaccine, making Healthcare the week’s second-best sector. Bitcoin closed +23.18%, gold +5.44%, and Friday’s flash PMI hit a 52-month high.
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MIB Daily: Not a Rate-Cut Rally but a Growth One, PMI 56.0 With the 2Y Charging 4.7bps, Gold $4,672 and Bitcoin $77,522 Bid on a Flat Dollar, Utilities -1.97% Into Warsh in Seven Days
Flash PMI shocked at 56.0, a 52-month high, putting Q3 growth near 3%: cyclicals bought it, the two-year charged for it. US-Canada talks collapsed; 50% duties hit $20B of Canadian goods at midnight. Gold cleared $4,672 and Bitcoin ran 6.69% to $77,522 with the dollar flat and yields higher. Tesla +5.14% on Nevada’s first paid robotaxi permits; Marvell -5.56% despite a 38% target raise. Fourteen Walmart cuts, eight Ross raises, same session. Oil rigs fell a third straight week.
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MIB Daily: The Backstop Lasted One Day, With Volatility Rising Alongside Yields to 5.248%, Walmart Down 9.15% on a Beat, and Memory and Bitcoin the Only Bid Before Warsh Speaks on August 28
Wednesday’s Treasury buyback rally unwound in one session — 30-year back to 5.248%, S&P -0.87%, Dow -1.32%, VIX +7.52%. Bessent promised a bigger program, and “the toughest sanctions in history” on Iran: WTI +2.28%, gasoline a record for the date. Musalem and Daly split on whether the long end is a credibility warning. Walmart -9.15% on a comps miss. Memory bucked the tape again: Marvell +5.79%, Micron +3.97%. Bitcoin +5.07% past $72,000. Canada’s 50% duties attach Saturday with nothing published.
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MIB Weekly: $720-745B Settled the Capex Question and Paid the Suppliers — But Memory Turned Into a Tax, the Curve Priced Out the Cut, and Transports Fell Five for Five
Wednesday’s 9-3 FOMC hold — three members dissenting for a hike, the first such split since 2016 — knocked 2.18% off the Dow in its worst session since April 2025. Then Microsoft (+21.75% on the week) and Amazon (+17.00%) answered July’s AI-capex scare with $720-745 billion of committed 2026 spending, and the S&P closed up 1.05%. Underneath, the Dow Transports fell all five sessions, Q2 growth undershot at 1.5% and Apple lost 7.35% on memory costs.
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MIB Daily: The Fed Put Just Got Cheaper — 19-Year Bond Yields and a Trillion-Dollar Chip Wipeout Leave Thursday’s Core PCE to Decide Stagflation, Favoring Macro Hedges Over Tech and Industrials
The Fed held at 3.50%-3.75% but three members dissented for a hike — the first three-way hawkish split since 2016 — and the Dow fell 2.18%, its worst day since April 2025. The 30-year hit a 19-year high at 5.21%. Iran struck a US base in Jordan and rejected Oman’s Hormuz plan; WTI jumped 6.74%. SK Hynix’s miss tipped the Nasdaq 100 into correction, erasing $1 trillion of global chip value. Caterpillar sank 6.91% on data-centre permitting risk.
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MIB Daily: Nvidia’s $250B OpenAI Backstop Makes AI a Credit Trade — Oil’s 8% Drop and Cracked Rate Hedges Put Utilities at Risk Into Wednesday’s Fed
Oil cratered 8.25% as US-Iran strikes paused a second day, flipping Energy (-2.41%) from best sector to worst. Hike odds for Wednesday’s FOMC slid to one-in-three, yet VIX rose to 18.67 — nobody is de-risking. Durable goods rose 0.3% versus 2.5% expected. Nvidia fell 4.99% on reports it may backstop $250B of OpenAI’s data-center financing; chips shed five percent. Apple retook the most-valuable crown at $4.94T. The Dow gained 0.51% but transports fell 1.83% — a Dow Theory non-confirmation.
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MIB Weekly: Intel Beat by 100% and Fell 7.89% as Capital Intensity Repriced — Brent Over $100, a Tariff Floor on 99.4% of Imports, Hike Odds at 72%, and Breadth Still Green
Brent topped $100 for the first time in two months and closed the week up 11.39% after Houthi missiles struck two Saudi tankers. The larger repricing was in AI: Alphabet (-7.13%), Tesla (-14.52%) and Intel (-7.89% despite its best growth in fifteen years) were all punished for capital spending, while Apple (+3.53%) and IBM (+3.65%) were bid for having none. Polymarket’s 2026 hike odds jumped 21 points to 72% heading into Wednesday’s FOMC.
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MIB Daily: GOOGL -7.13%, TSLA -14.52% as AI Spending Meets Its Reckoning — Brent’s Run to $100 Leaves the Fed No Room, Energy Alone Gains
Alphabet and Tesla cratered — GOOGL -7.13%, TSLA -14.52% — after both guided capex well above expectations, dragging the Nasdaq 100 down 1.87%. Brent crude topped $100/bbl as Houthi strikes hit Saudi tankers, opening a second Red Sea front alongside the Hormuz standoff. Rate markets threw a tantrum — July hike odds near 47%, September at 82% — as jobless claims hit a 1969 low leave the Fed with zero cover on oil-driven inflation. Oracle slid despite nearing a $20B Meta deal.
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MIB Daily: Twin Gulf Chokepoints Push Gas Past $4 as the Fed Holds the Line — AMD (+5%) Pulls Away From Oracle’s Cost Overruns (-4%)
Iran’s IRGC torched two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and declared it sealed — then Yemen’s Houthis opened a second front, blockading Saudi Arabia’s export lifeline. Gasoline just crossed $4/gallon, landing days before Fed Chair Warsh’s “no tolerance” inflation stance faces its July 28-29 test. A judge blocked Paramount Skydance’s $110B Warner Bros. Discovery deal. AMD surged 5% on a new Azure AI mega-deal; Oracle sank another 4% on data-center cost overruns. Stocks fell a third day, though chips rebounded.
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MIB Weekly: SOX -20% Into a Bear Market as PANW Hits Records and Oil Jumps 15% — the Fed Still Won’t Blink Despite Cooling CPI
The Strait of Hormuz war escalated all week — a reinstated blockade, six nights of US strikes, and a Friday threat to close a second chokepoint — pushing oil up 15%. A parallel AI-capex credibility crisis pushed the semiconductor index into a bear market, even as PayPal surged 16-17% on a $53 billion takeover bid from Stripe and Advent. IBM crashed 25% (worst since 1987) while Goldman Sachs surged 9% to a record high, and the Fed stayed hawkish despite cooling inflation.
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MIB Daily: A Divided Fed, Cracking Chips (Micron -8%), and Iran’s Widening Risk — Rotation Wins Into a September Reckoning
Cooler June PPI fueled a rate-cut rally — S&P 500 +0.38%, Apple (+4%) hit a record high on China’s AI approval. Chip stocks reversed hard: Micron -8%, Dell -9.8%, on fresh Chinese memory-competition fears. Stripe and Advent lobbed a $53B bid for PayPal, sending shares up 16-17%. The Fed split publicly — Williams says inflation “has peaked,” Cook is “prepared to act.” Iran’s conflict widened as US strikes resumed, pushing Brent toward $86. European gas jumped 4% on a Qatari LNG halt.
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MIB Daily: WTI +9%, Oracle’s 52-Week Low, and a Hawkish Fed — Tuesday’s CPI Decides Whether to Rotate Into Energy or Stay Defensive
Trump reinstated a Strait of Hormuz blockade on Iran, sending WTI up 9%, S&P 500 down 0.79%, Nasdaq 1.88%, and VIX up 14%. Fed’s Waller reopened rate-hike odds ahead of Tuesday’s CPI, lifting 10Y yields to 4.626%. Oracle (-6.47%) hit a 52-week low on a credit downgrade over OpenAI concentration risk, while SK Hynix cratered 15% in Seoul and SanDisk (-12.63%) led a NAND selloff. Gold fell 2.55% despite the escalation, dollar strength overriding safe-haven demand.
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MIB Weekly: SK Hynix and Meta Powered Through Iran and a Hawkish Fed, But Software Lagged — SpaceX’s Junk Spreads Say the AI Trade’s Real Test Is Still Ahead
AI-infrastructure conviction defined the week: SK Hynix’s record $26.5B Nasdaq debut surged 14%, Meta rallied roughly 15% on its “Meta Compute” cloud pivot, and Broadcom extended a $30B+ Apple chip deal — even as a genuine US-Iran ceasefire collapse sent oil spiking as much as 5.9% and nine of eleven S&P sectors red mid-week. The Fed turned meaningfully more hawkish, with 2026 rate-hike odds jumping to 59% after Williams named AI-driven demand his top inflation risk. The S&P 500 closed +1.24%; the Dow finished red.
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