Intel’s 28.58% one-day collapse and Alphabet’s worst session since listing ended a week that began with an AI rally, leaving the Nasdaq 100 down 1.98% while the Russell 2000 gained 1.29%. Meta’s $37.5 billion equity sale, Microsoft’s $25 billion-plus bond deal and Amazon’s $42.4 billion free-cash outflow made AI funding the market’s central question. The Fed held with two dissents for a hike, yet the 10-year yield fell 7.1 bps.
Tag Archives | Kevin Warsh
MIB Weekly: The AI Bill Came Due as Intel Fell 28.58% and Alphabet 12.64%, Healthcare and Treasuries Won While Gold Failed as a Haven, Can a Split Fed Still Hike in December?
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: Two Fed Votes for a Hike and the 2-Year Rallied Anyway, SK Hynix’s Sold-Out 2029 Lifts Chipmakers as Oracle Jumps 10.73%, and With WTI at $101.95 Thursday’s PCE Decides December
The Fed held at 3.75%-4.00%, but Governor Cook and Cleveland’s Hammack dissented for a hike and Warsh refused forward guidance; the 2-year still fell 4.1 bps. SK Hynix says DRAM and HBM are sold out through 2029, lifting Micron 5.86% and Lam 5.39%. Oracle jumped 10.73% after capping new AI fundraising at $20 billion. WTI rose 2.05% to $101.95 on Yemen fighting and Iran strike fears. GDPNow ends Q3 at 3.3%, setting up Thursday’s GDP and PCE.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: The AI Boom’s Suppliers Became Its Bankers as AMD Rose 5.45% on a $1 Billion Meta Stake, but the 2-Year’s 9.3 bps Climb Says Bonds Doubt Wall Street’s Calm Into the Fed, With Crude Priced for Peace
AMD jumped 5.45% after committing $1 billion to Meta’s equity raise and winning a custom-GPU deployment, leading the Nasdaq 100 up 1.29% and the S&P 500 back above 7,700. Meta fell 1.64% after pricing $37.5 billion of equity and facing a suit over Zuckerberg’s recap. Consumer confidence leapt to 91.7 against an 81 forecast as the FOMC meeting opened. Boeing sank 10.69% after earnings, pinning the Dow to a 0.03% gain. WTI slid 1.55% to $100.18 on Iran’s regional diplomacy.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: The AI Boom Now Pays for Itself With Stock, as Anthropic Files and Meta Raises $35 Billion While Chip Suppliers Rally, the 2-Year Prices a Hike Before Warsh, and Brazil ADRs Crash
Anthropic filed its public S-1 for a Nasdaq IPO as ANT, and the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.09% as AI hardware led. Meta (META) fell 1.88% on a roughly $35 billion stock offering to fund its AI build-out. The 2-year yield rose 3.0 bps two days before Wednesday’s Fed decision. Lula’s fourth term sank Brazilian assets, with Petrobras (PBR) down 13.99%. WTI fell 1.60% as regional envoys opened talks in Tehran. Tesla (TSLA) jumped 5.21% on a Barclays upgrade.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Weekly: The AI Trade Hit Its Credit Limit, Nasdaq 100 -5.49% as CoreWeave Debt Broke 15%, Treasuries Rallied Through Hot CPI, Staples and $100 Oil Led, Can Meta’s Capex Stop the Unwind?
An AI-financing scare split the market this week: CoreWeave’s bonds topped a 15% yield, the chip index fell eight straight sessions and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 5.49% while the Dow rose 0.67%. Dell (-22.92%) led the losers as money rotated into Walmart, Coca-Cola and Eli Lilly. Gulf attacks sent WTI up 11.08% to $101.64, and hot CPI and PPI did not stop the 10-year yield falling 15.4 bps.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: The AI Trade Now Has a Credit Problem, CoreWeave Bonds Top 15% as Money Flees Tech for Energy and Staples, and $110 Brent With 8.1% Import Inflation Leaves the Fed No Easy Out
AI-financing fears sent the Nasdaq 100 down 2.50% to its lowest close since September 16 as CoreWeave sank 12% and the chip index fell for an eighth straight session, its longest streak since 2008. Software followed: PANW -7.63%, PLTR -7.22%, CRWD -7.02%. Brent touched $110 after a missile was intercepted near Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu hub. Import prices rose 1.1% in September, an 8.1% annual pace. Warsh gave no October signal and hold odds rose to 85.1%; the VIX jumped 21%.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: The Hottest PPI Since 2022 Sent the 10-Year Down 10 bps, Small Caps Rallied as Chips Neared a $2 Trillion Rout, and Diesel Keeps Inflation Hot Into Warsh’s Last Word
Producer prices jumped 1.3% in September, the hottest monthly print since March 2022, yet the 10-year yield fell 10.2 bps to 5.084%. The Dow gained 1.08% to retake 52,000 as the Russell 2000 rose 1.38%, while chips extended a rout nearing $2 trillion since last week — DELL -6.80%. CoreWeave’s credit gauge hit record default odds before Nvidia’s Huang defended it. Retail sales beat, but the control group rose just 0.1%. WTI jumped 2.63% on an 8.6M-barrel crude draw.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Weekly: The Fed Hiked Into a Shock It Can’t Fix, the 10-Year Closed Above 5% and Diesel Hit a Record $6.45 as Banks and AI Borrowers Paid and Memory Makers Won, With a Second Hike in October Still Open
MIB WEEKLY DIGEST Week of Sep 14–18, 2026 The Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023 and signalled more, sending the 2-year yield up 12.4 bps and the 10-year to its first closes above 5% before a Friday retreat to 4.998%. The Nasdaq 100 (+0.94%) was the only major index higher as an AI-safety essay lifted CrowdStrike 14.95% on the week while chip equipment crashed and then recovered most of the loss. Bank of America’s fee warning […]
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: The Fed’s First Hike Since 2023 Leaves October a 51-49 Coin-Flip, J.B. Hunt’s Diesel Warning Sinks Transports 2.78% and Banks Find the Hike Doesn’t Pay, So Favour Short Duration Over Rate-Sensitive Cyclicals
The Fed hiked for the first time since 2023 and 16 of 18 officials see more — October is now a coin-flip and the 10-Year closed above 5%. August retail sales smashed forecasts at +1.2% while import prices ran hottest since 2022. Transports sank 2.78% as J.B. Hunt (-13.3%) warned on diesel and driver costs. Goldman (-4.0%) and Huntington (-5.6%) dragged banks. Crude fell 3.4% on Saudi pipeline repair hopes. GE Vernova (+4.8%) and Intel (+4.0%) bucked the tape.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Weekly: The S&P Went Nowhere and Everything Under It Moved, WTI +9.22% With Energy Equities Not Following, SNDK +17.17% vs PANW -10.32%, FICO -16.68% by Directive, September Repriced Three Times, Still a Coin Flip
The September FOMC was repriced three times in five sessions and ended where it started: Barr said hike, Waller said hold, and Friday’s 162,000-payroll blowout against a 56,000 consensus flipped implied odds back to 58-60%. Underneath it, five days of US-Iran exchanges put WTI up 9.22% and took retail diesel to an all-time record $5.850, six days before the CPI on which Waller staked his vote. Technology split in half: Sandisk +17.17% against Palo Alto -10.32%.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: Payrolls 162K Against 56K Bought a September Hike, the President Demanded Cuts Anyway, and Memory Rallied Regardless as Record $5.850 Diesel Leaves One CPI Print Deciding the Meeting
August payrolls tripled expectations at 162,000 and flipped September back to a coin-flip hike — implied odds 58-60%. The selloff was narrow: Netflix -5.35%, Palantir -4.49%, while memory ran hard (Sandisk +11.90%, Micron +6.10%). Tesla -5.92% as NHTSA opened an audit query into how it self-certified the Cybercab. FICO -16.68% after FHFA opened VantageScore to every GSE lender. Retail diesel set a record $5.850 a gallon, +57.6% year-on-year. Novartis’s Lp(a) drug failed after the close; Amgen and Ionis fell harder.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: A VIX at 14.92 Says Nobody Is Paying for the Hormuz Tail, WTI +3.50% and Utilities Uncapped With PG&E -18%, While the Two-Year Refused to Confirm a 72% Hike Bet and AI Became the Hiding Place
US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s overnight retaliation sent WTI up 3.50% to $86.32 and European gas to its highest since January 2023. Nine of eleven sectors closed red. California’s wildfire bill omitted the liability cap: PG&E -18%, Edison -23%. The FTC and 22 states sued Amazon over a $20bn ad-auction scheme; AMZN -2.50%. Warsh went hawkish at the G20 but the two-year refused to confirm. Aon bought USI for $17bn, all debt-funded.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Weekly: The S&P Rose 0.49% and Told You Nothing, Warsh Sent the 2Y Up 12.2bp and Hike Odds to 68%, Chicago PMI Hit 47.1, Gold and Semicap Took the Hit, Marvell Paid 10.28% for 90bp of Margin
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole keynote to say the central bank has “more work to do” on inflation, and the two-year Treasury yield ended the week 12.2 basis points higher at 4.354% — September is now a live hike meeting, with Polymarket’s 2026 hike contract up twelve points to 68%. The damage landed on gold (−3.50%) and the Russell 2000 (−1.51%), not the S&P 500 (+0.49%). Friday’s rate move then took semiconductor equipment down 4–5%.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: The Index Lied, Warsh’s 12.2bp Two-Year Move Hit Gold -3.34% and Semi Equipment -5% While the S&P Held, and Chicago PMI at 47.1 Asks Whether the Hike Trade Survives Next Week’s ISM
Warsh’s Jackson Hole debut put a September hike back on the table: the two-year jumped 12.2bp to 4.354%, its biggest day since June. Gold -3.34%, silver -4.31% and the Russell -1.39% took the hit while the S&P shrugged at -0.25%. He also retired forward guidance outright. Chicago PMI cratered to 47.1. PayPal -12.71% after Advent and Stripe walked from a $53bn bid it had already rejected. Semis unwound 4-5%; Amazon +3.95%. BioNTech -8.37% on a halted cancer trial.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: One Sector Bought the Rally on the Day Washington Proposed Taxing It, Tech +3.09% Against an NYSE Down 0.38%, Three Fed Hawks Moved the Two-Year 0.8bp, PANW +12.83% on an Unsigned Deal, Warsh Friday
Technology surged 3.09% and carried the S&P 500 up 0.72% — while the NYSE Composite fell and eight of eleven sectors closed red. Cleveland’s Hammack says “now is the time to act” on a rate hike; the two-year moved 0.8bp. July’s goods trade gap blew out to $118.8B on a 68.7% jump in Korean chip imports — the same flow Washington is weighing tariffing. Palo Alto +12.83% on deal reports. Nvidia is said to be buying Hugging Face for $12.9B.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: September Prices a 38% Hike, Not a Cut, With the 2-Year at 4.209% and the 10-Year Up 1bp on 3.7% PCE, a 4.6% Atlanta Fed Nowcast Splits a 1.5% Q2, and Record $4 Gas Lands With Crude Lower Before Warsh
Markets barely moved on a hot headline PCE — but futures now price a September rate HIKE near 38%, not a cut. Meta paid $16.7bn and accepted a decade-long two-hour daily cap on teen accounts. America is heading for its first $4 Labor Day on record, and it’s a refining story, not a crude one. Boston Scientific’s cyberattack has stopped it shipping orders worldwide. Atlanta Fed’s Q3 nowcast turned back up to 4.6%. Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote lands Friday.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Weekly: Treasury’s Backstop Lasted Twenty-Four Hours, Chips Fell 5.5% Twice With 30 of 30 Down, a Tariff Pause Was Never Published, and Gold and Bitcoin Took What Semis Lost
Treasury doubled its long-bond buybacks on Wednesday and the market unwound the entire move by Thursday’s close, leaving the S&P 500 down 1.43% and both yields higher on the week. The chip complex fell roughly 5.5% twice in three sessions, Intel -12.13%, while Merck added 12.30% on the first positive Phase 3 for an individualised cancer vaccine, making Healthcare the week’s second-best sector. Bitcoin closed +23.18%, gold +5.44%, and Friday’s flash PMI hit a 52-month high.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: Not a Rate-Cut Rally but a Growth One, PMI 56.0 With the 2Y Charging 4.7bps, Gold $4,672 and Bitcoin $77,522 Bid on a Flat Dollar, Utilities -1.97% Into Warsh in Seven Days
Flash PMI shocked at 56.0, a 52-month high, putting Q3 growth near 3%: cyclicals bought it, the two-year charged for it. US-Canada talks collapsed; 50% duties hit $20B of Canadian goods at midnight. Gold cleared $4,672 and Bitcoin ran 6.69% to $77,522 with the dollar flat and yields higher. Tesla +5.14% on Nevada’s first paid robotaxi permits; Marvell -5.56% despite a 38% target raise. Fourteen Walmart cuts, eight Ross raises, same session. Oil rigs fell a third straight week.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Daily: The Backstop Lasted One Day, With Volatility Rising Alongside Yields to 5.248%, Walmart Down 9.15% on a Beat, and Memory and Bitcoin the Only Bid Before Warsh Speaks on August 28
Wednesday’s Treasury buyback rally unwound in one session — 30-year back to 5.248%, S&P -0.87%, Dow -1.32%, VIX +7.52%. Bessent promised a bigger program, and “the toughest sanctions in history” on Iran: WTI +2.28%, gasoline a record for the date. Musalem and Daly split on whether the long end is a credibility warning. Walmart -9.15% on a comps miss. Memory bucked the tape again: Marvell +5.79%, Micron +3.97%. Bitcoin +5.07% past $72,000. Canada’s 50% duties attach Saturday with nothing published.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB Weekly: $720-745B Settled the Capex Question and Paid the Suppliers — But Memory Turned Into a Tax, the Curve Priced Out the Cut, and Transports Fell Five for Five
Wednesday’s 9-3 FOMC hold — three members dissenting for a hike, the first such split since 2016 — knocked 2.18% off the Dow in its worst session since April 2025. Then Microsoft (+21.75% on the week) and Amazon (+17.00%) answered July’s AI-capex scare with $720-745 billion of committed 2026 spending, and the S&P closed up 1.05%. Underneath, the Dow Transports fell all five sessions, Q2 growth undershot at 1.5% and Apple lost 7.35% on memory costs.
Read full story · Comments are closed