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MIB: Stagflation Trap — Iran Sends Oil Past $101 While Google’s AI Crushes Semis and Meta Faces $Billions in Verdicts

By RecessionALERT on March 26, 2026 in Reflections

Iran denies US peace talks, pushing Brent crude past $101 and extending the Hormuz chokehold. Google’s TurboQuant crushed semiconductor stocks (LRCX -9.4%, AMAT -8.3%, AMD -7.5%, MU -7%). Meta shed 8% on a landmark social media addiction verdict. Nasdaq entered correction territory (-10%). OECD raised US inflation forecast to 4.2% for 2026, highest in G7. BlackRock downgraded US equities to neutral as stagflation fears mount.

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MIB: Four Days to War — Iran Denial Sends Gold to $4,509 as Tech Cracks and Bonds Flash Stagflation

By RecessionALERT on March 24, 2026 in Reflections

Iran ceasefire countdown (4 days remain) fades as Iran denies talks — Gold surges to $4,509 (+1.58%). Alphabet (GOOGL -3.85%) faces EU DMA fine deadline tomorrow; potential $34B fine looms. Tech rotation intensifies: Nasdaq -0.77% vs. Russell 2000 +0.53%; Oracle -4.70% despite BofA Buy reinstated. GE Vernova +3.03% on Morgan Stanley $960 target. Richmond Fed manufacturing hits 0 — first non-negative in over a year. Goldman Sachs delays first Fed rate cut to September.

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MIB: Precious metals rout, Qatar struck again — Hormuz Week 3 Rewrites Every Portfolio Playbook

By RecessionALERT on March 19, 2026 in Reflections

Gold crashes -5% through $5,000 as real yields spike — silver -6%, platinum -4%. Iran strikes Qatar’s LNG; Dutch TTF gas surges +13%. Chip equipment stocks surge (LRCX +4.13%, AMD +2.91%) on Micron AI beat, but MU -3.78% sell-the-news. Jobless claims 205K beat, defying stagflation fears. S&P -0.28% but Russell 2000 +0.64% as Israel pledges Hormuz reopening. FedEx beats AMC, raises guidance.

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MIB: FOMC Day One, Oil Resumes Rally, Amazon’s $600B AI Bet, and a Brutal LLY Downgrade

By RecessionALERT on March 17, 2026 in Reflections

Oil resumed its climb — WTI $96, Brent $103+ — as FOMC Day 1 began and Monday’s de-escalation optimism faded. Amazon CEO Jassy doubled AWS 10-year target to $600B on AI demand (AMZN +1%). HSBC issued a rare Sell on LLY (-5.3%) citing GLP-1 market TAM saturation and imminent price wars. February retail sales beat (+0.6%) showed the consumer holding firm. Delta (DAL +6%) and American (AAL +4%) lifted Q1 guidance — travel demand crushing oil cost headwinds.

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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.