WTI crude surged +11.52% to $105.48 as US-Iran ceasefire talks collapsed — “garbage” per Trump Tuesday — while CPI 3.8% and PPI 6.0% pushed rate-hike odds from under 3% to over 50% in 72 hours and the 10Y to a one-year high of 4.601%. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair inheriting this stagflation stack. The Trump-Xi summit briefly drove records (S&P 7,500, Dow 50,000 Thursday) before crashing Friday on zero binding deals — tariffs, chips, and Taiwan all unresolved.
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MIB Weekly: Stagflation Confirmed, AI Capex Accelerating, Summit Resolved Nothing — Own Energy & AI Infrastructure, Sell Rate-Sensitive Duration Through the Fall Diplomatic Window
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MIB: Stagflation Confirmed, $105 Oil, China Stalled — Warsh Has No Good Move; REITs, Chips, & Long-Tech Now Lose
Trump-Xi Day 2: zero binding deals on tariffs, semiconductors, or Taiwan; S&P -1.24%, 10Y +14 bps to 4.60%, stagflation pricing confirmed. WTI +4.26% to $105.48 on Hormuz collapse — ~10% weekly gain compounds the tariff-inflation stack. Warsh sworn in as Fed Chair with >50% 2026 rate-hike odds; June 16 FOMC is his first test. Chip leaders MU, INTC, AMD down 5–7% on NVDA pre-positioning and unresolved China export overhang. Ackman disclosed MSFT at 21x, exited GOOGL; MSFT +3.05% vs. Nasdaq -1.54%.
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MIB: Triple Shock — OpenAI Revenue Miss, UAE Exits OPEC, and Trump Rejects Iran’s Hormuz Deal Ahead of $700B AI Earnings Week
OpenAI missed revenue and user targets (WSJ), gutting AI chip stocks — AMAT -5.87%, KLAC -4.79%, AVGO -4.39%; Nasdaq -1.01%. UAE quit OPEC after 58 years, effective May 1. Trump rejected Iran’s Hormuz reopening proposal — Brent hit $112.70 intraday, US gas $4.18/gal (highest since Aug 2022). Powell’s final FOMC opened Tuesday. Coca-Cola (+3.86%), Visa, and Starbucks all beat and raised guidance. GOOGL/MSFT/META Wednesday — $700B AI capex on trial.
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MIB: Stagflation Trap — Iran Sends Oil Past $101 While Google’s AI Crushes Semis and Meta Faces $Billions in Verdicts
Iran denies US peace talks, pushing Brent crude past $101 and extending the Hormuz chokehold. Google’s TurboQuant crushed semiconductor stocks (LRCX -9.4%, AMAT -8.3%, AMD -7.5%, MU -7%). Meta shed 8% on a landmark social media addiction verdict. Nasdaq entered correction territory (-10%). OECD raised US inflation forecast to 4.2% for 2026, highest in G7. BlackRock downgraded US equities to neutral as stagflation fears mount.
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MIB: Four Days to War — Iran Denial Sends Gold to $4,509 as Tech Cracks and Bonds Flash Stagflation
Iran ceasefire countdown (4 days remain) fades as Iran denies talks — Gold surges to $4,509 (+1.58%). Alphabet (GOOGL -3.85%) faces EU DMA fine deadline tomorrow; potential $34B fine looms. Tech rotation intensifies: Nasdaq -0.77% vs. Russell 2000 +0.53%; Oracle -4.70% despite BofA Buy reinstated. GE Vernova +3.03% on Morgan Stanley $960 target. Richmond Fed manufacturing hits 0 — first non-negative in over a year. Goldman Sachs delays first Fed rate cut to September.
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MIB: Precious metals rout, Qatar struck again — Hormuz Week 3 Rewrites Every Portfolio Playbook
Gold crashes -5% through $5,000 as real yields spike — silver -6%, platinum -4%. Iran strikes Qatar’s LNG; Dutch TTF gas surges +13%. Chip equipment stocks surge (LRCX +4.13%, AMD +2.91%) on Micron AI beat, but MU -3.78% sell-the-news. Jobless claims 205K beat, defying stagflation fears. S&P -0.28% but Russell 2000 +0.64% as Israel pledges Hormuz reopening. FedEx beats AMC, raises guidance.
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MIB: FOMC Day One, Oil Resumes Rally, Amazon’s $600B AI Bet, and a Brutal LLY Downgrade
Oil resumed its climb — WTI $96, Brent $103+ — as FOMC Day 1 began and Monday’s de-escalation optimism faded. Amazon CEO Jassy doubled AWS 10-year target to $600B on AI demand (AMZN +1%). HSBC issued a rare Sell on LLY (-5.3%) citing GLP-1 market TAM saturation and imminent price wars. February retail sales beat (+0.6%) showed the consumer holding firm. Delta (DAL +6%) and American (AAL +4%) lifted Q1 guidance — travel demand crushing oil cost headwinds.
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