CoreWeave’s beat-and-raise revived the AI-hardware trade: the Nasdaq 100 jumped 2.28% as Micron (+11.89%) and Dell (+11.75%) surged, while Microsoft, Meta and Amazon fell. Futures price a December hike as certain and lean toward a second by January, sending the dollar to its highest close since at least April 15. Brent rose 1.14% as Iran refused to export enriched material. Nvidia lagged as a Senate Republican urged Huang to go. Anthropic’s IPO book is oversubscribed at a $1.4 trillion valuation.
Tag Archives | Nvidia
MIB Daily: Markets Paid the AI Builders and Sold the Spenders as Micron Jumped 11.9%, Futures Locked In a December Hike, Iran Kept Brent Bid, and Treasuries Reopen Thursday to Deliver Their Verdict
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MIB Daily: Hot CPI Moved the Fed From Whether to How Fast, the 2-Year Jumped 18.2 bps as Nvidia Fell 5.47% on a $7.5B China Report, Tariffs Keep Goods Prices Hot and Only Oil Below $90 Offers Relief
Hot October CPI moved the Fed debate from whether to how fast: core rose 0.3% for a third month, meeting Waller’s half-point condition, while the 2-year jumped 18.2 bps and the 10-year briefly retook 5%. Logan wants at least two more hikes. Nvidia sank 5.47% on a report that Huang’s relationship aided at least $7.5B of chip shipments to Chinese firms. Anthropic set a $70-$78 IPO range valuing it at up to about $1.4T. Brent briefly broke below $90.
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MIB Daily: Stocks Priced Relief, Bonds Priced a Hike, as AMD Jumped 13.26% and Nvidia Fell 4.27% on Its CEO Probe, With December Hike Odds at 84% and Households Strained Before Tuesday’s CPI
Chips led a broad rebound: the S&P 500 rose 2.35% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 3.40% as AMD jumped 13.26% on an Oppenheimer upgrade. Nvidia fell 4.27% as its board probes whether CEO Jensen Huang was targeted by foreign intelligence. Brent slid 6.21% after Trump called new Iran strikes “highly unlikely.” Bonds balked: 2-year yields rose 5.4 bps and December hike odds climbed to about 84% before Tuesday’s CPI. Washington and Beijing extended their trade truce to January 10, 2027.
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MIB Weekly: The Election Ended AI’s Immunity, Chips Fell 12% on Data-Center Curb Fears, Brent Dropped 12.78% and Oracle’s $20B Raise Showed the Bill Rising, Can Tuesday’s CPI Stop a December Hike?
Tuesday’s Democratic sweep of Congress became the AI trade’s newest risk: a 3.03% Dow relief rally gave way to Thursday’s 4.36% S&P 500 drop as chip stocks sank 12.25% on fears of curbs on the data-center build-out. Dell (-22.57%) and Micron (-22.01%) led the week’s losers despite strong AMD results. Brent fell 12.78% on Iran diplomacy, yet 165,000 payrolls lifted the odds of another Fed hike to 77%. The Nasdaq 100 lost 4.91%.
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MIB Daily: Chips Bounce but the AI Boom Now Costs More to Fund, 7.52M Job Openings Push the 10-Year to 4.966% and Squeeze Long-Duration Tech, and a 20.81 VIX Bets on a Quiet Midterm Night
Chips snapped a four-session slide on Election Day, lifting the Nasdaq 100 0.68% back above 28,000 even as eight of 11 sectors fell, and AMD rose 7.49% after hours on a roughly $17 billion fourth-quarter guide. Job openings beat at 7.52 million and the 10-year yield rose 5.5 bps to 4.966%. Brent swung more than $6 on unconfirmed US-Iran reports, then closed down 0.33%. Meta (META) talked 30-year bonds nearly 90 bps wider than April. Midterm results land overnight.
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MIB Weekly: The AI Bill Came Due as Intel Fell 28.58% and Alphabet 12.64%, Healthcare and Treasuries Won While Gold Failed as a Haven, Can a Split Fed Still Hike in December?
Intel’s 28.58% one-day collapse and Alphabet’s worst session since listing ended a week that began with an AI rally, leaving the Nasdaq 100 down 1.98% while the Russell 2000 gained 1.29%. Meta’s $37.5 billion equity sale, Microsoft’s $25 billion-plus bond deal and Amazon’s $42.4 billion free-cash outflow made AI funding the market’s central question. The Fed held with two dissents for a hike, yet the 10-year yield fell 7.1 bps.
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MIB Daily: Two Fed Votes for a Hike and the 2-Year Rallied Anyway, SK Hynix’s Sold-Out 2029 Lifts Chipmakers as Oracle Jumps 10.73%, and With WTI at $101.95 Thursday’s PCE Decides December
The Fed held at 3.75%-4.00%, but Governor Cook and Cleveland’s Hammack dissented for a hike and Warsh refused forward guidance; the 2-year still fell 4.1 bps. SK Hynix says DRAM and HBM are sold out through 2029, lifting Micron 5.86% and Lam 5.39%. Oracle jumped 10.73% after capping new AI fundraising at $20 billion. WTI rose 2.05% to $101.95 on Yemen fighting and Iran strike fears. GDPNow ends Q3 at 3.3%, setting up Thursday’s GDP and PCE.
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MIB Daily: The AI Boom’s Suppliers Became Its Bankers as AMD Rose 5.45% on a $1 Billion Meta Stake, but the 2-Year’s 9.3 bps Climb Says Bonds Doubt Wall Street’s Calm Into the Fed, With Crude Priced for Peace
AMD jumped 5.45% after committing $1 billion to Meta’s equity raise and winning a custom-GPU deployment, leading the Nasdaq 100 up 1.29% and the S&P 500 back above 7,700. Meta fell 1.64% after pricing $37.5 billion of equity and facing a suit over Zuckerberg’s recap. Consumer confidence leapt to 91.7 against an 81 forecast as the FOMC meeting opened. Boeing sank 10.69% after earnings, pinning the Dow to a 0.03% gain. WTI slid 1.55% to $100.18 on Iran’s regional diplomacy.
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MIB Weekly: The War Hit Prices, Not Nerves, as Brent Ran 6.3% to $116 and Gold Fell 4%, AI’s Bill Came Due in Credit Markets, Small Caps Rose 2% and Bonds Rallied Below 5% Into a Fed That Must Choose
Houthi strikes on Saudi airports and Aramco sites pushed Brent up 6.3% to $116.62, its highest settle since April. Thursday’s AI-financing scare, set off by Lam Research’s supply-capped guidance (-11.76%) and Meta’s higher spending floor (-6.98%), handed the Nasdaq 100 its worst day since June. Treasuries took the haven bid, the 10-year closing the week below 5% as price pressure built into Wednesday’s Fed decision. CrowdStrike (+13.3%) and Palo Alto (+11.3%) led the gainers.
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MIB Daily: Nvidia Says AI Is Short of Factories, Not Buyers, as Chipmakers Lead a Narrow Rally and Gulf Risk Reaches Saudi Oil Fields, Leaving the Fed to Weigh $110 Brent Against Cooling Housing
A New Mexico judge ordered Meta to pay $25 billion plus 15% annual interest; Meta will appeal. Nvidia unveiled capacity deals with six suppliers at GTC Berlin as chipmakers lifted the Nasdaq 100 1.13% on a narrow tape where six of 11 sectors fell. Washington ordered non-emergency staff out of Saudi Arabia as Houthi attacks escalate. The EIA crude draw nearly quadrupled forecasts. Mortgage applications fell 5.3% despite lower rates. CrowdStrike jumped 5.26% as leaked PHP flaws lifted cybersecurity stocks.
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MIB Daily: Housing Breaks Under 5.1% Yields Yet a December Hike Is Now Consensus, Nvidia Can’t Promise Supply on $35B of China Orders, Brent’s Floor Rises and Healthcare Lifts the Dow as Chips Slide
Housing cracked under 5.1% Treasury yields: September starts fell 5.2% to 1.221M against a 1.30M consensus and pending sales plunged 7.3%. A Reuters poll now has nearly all economists expecting a December Fed hike. Healthcare led a rotation out of tech, lifting the Dow 1.02% to its highest close since September 11, while Brent reversed from a $111.99 intraday high. Anthropic’s draft IPO filing showed $16.3B first-half revenue and ~$450B of cloud commitments. Salesforce agreed to buy Braze; BRZE +51.7%.
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MIB Daily: The Hottest PPI Since 2022 Sent the 10-Year Down 10 bps, Small Caps Rallied as Chips Neared a $2 Trillion Rout, and Diesel Keeps Inflation Hot Into Warsh’s Last Word
Producer prices jumped 1.3% in September, the hottest monthly print since March 2022, yet the 10-year yield fell 10.2 bps to 5.084%. The Dow gained 1.08% to retake 52,000 as the Russell 2000 rose 1.38%, while chips extended a rout nearing $2 trillion since last week — DELL -6.80%. CoreWeave’s credit gauge hit record default odds before Nvidia’s Huang defended it. Retail sales beat, but the control group rose just 0.1%. WTI jumped 2.63% on an 8.6M-barrel crude draw.
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MIB Daily: AI Is Now Competing With Treasuries for Money, as SpaceX’s $40B Debt Plan and a Split Fed Lift the 10-Year to a 24-Year High and Small Caps Pay Ahead of Thursday’s 30-Year Auction
Fed minutes show most officials expect another hike by year-end and record market concern that AI borrowing is lifting term premiums. The 10-year yield touched a 24-year intraday high of 5.364% before a strong $39B auction pulled it back. IEA members agreed to speed up emergency oil releases, and WTI settled down $1.16 despite a crude draw. Deere fell 3.8% on a new FTC-USDA farm-equipment inquiry. Platinum dropped 4.1% as the dollar posted its highest close in 122 sessions.
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MIB Daily: Stocks Priced the Fed, Bonds Priced the Bill, as the Nasdaq Hit a Record With the 10-Year at 5.315%, Services Prices at a 2022 High and a 2% Oil Drop the Only Inflation Relief Before This Week’s Auctions
Megacap tech carried the Nasdaq to a record close (+1.05%) and Nvidia to its own record (+2.12%) as October Fed-hike odds fell to 24%. Bonds dissented: the 10-year rose to 5.315%, its highest close in over two decades per Reuters. ISM’s services prices index climbed to 74.0, highest since July 2022. Crude fell about 2% on recovering Mideast exports despite weekend Houthi strikes on Aramco. Schneider to buy PTC for $23.7B; PTC +33%. Bolsonaro upset lifts Petrobras ADRs 11.5%.
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MIB Daily: The 29K Jobs Miss Moved the Date, Not the Destination, as the Nasdaq 100 Hit a Record, a 5.28% 10-Year Kept Duration Exposed and G7 Diesel Barrels Met a Sixth Hormuz Strike
September payrolls rose 29,000 against roughly 90,000 expected, unemployment hit 4.2% and October hike odds sank to about 23%. Stocks cheered: S&P 500 +0.73%, Nasdaq 100 at a record. Bonds didn’t, with the 2-year up 4.0 bps after Dallas Fed’s Logan called for 50 bps or more of further hikes. The G7 agreed a 100 million-barrel reserve release and WTI fell 1.9%, but a sixth vessel since Sunday was struck in Hormuz. TSLA rose 4.65% on a delivery beat.
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MIB Daily: Iran’s Oil Shock Now Runs Through the 10-Year at 5.241%, Gold Fails as the Hedge, META Drops 4.79% on an OpenAI Rival, and Hot Factory Costs Make Wednesday’s PCE the October Hike Test
Trump rejected Iran’s Hormuz roadmap, and the damage ran through bonds: the 10-year closed at 5.241%, topping last week’s high, and the S&P 500 fell 0.77%. Fed Governor Cook said the labor market appears able to handle higher rates. Gold sank 4.02% and silver 5.83%. META fell 4.79% on a reported rival OpenAI agent, while NVDA rose 1.68% on a $150B buyback boost. Boeing slid about 6% as the FAA held up 737 MAX 10 certification.
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MIB Daily: Oil Hit $103 and Markets Sold It as a Rate Hike, With Saudi Output Down 1.9 mb/d and AI Hardware Dumped Ahead of Oracle’s Beat as Friday’s CPI Decides Whether the Fed Hikes Next Week
WTI closed above $100 for the first time since May, up 7.3% to $103.06; Saudi Arabia told OPEC its August output fell 1.9 mb/d. Stocks fell a fourth day as the 2-year jumped 15 bps on near-70% Fed hike odds. The ECB hiked to 2.50%, citing energy. Platinum sank 7%, silver 6.7%, gold 2.3%. Lam, Intel, Dell and Micron fell ~5% into Oracle’s print; ORCL beat and rose ~7% after hours. Apple gained 3.6% on its $1,999 foldable.
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MIB Daily: Waller Cut September Hike Odds From 63.2% to Roughly 50% While ISM Prices Paid Hit 72.6, Gold and Bitcoin Rallied With Equities on One Trade, Industrials Led Into a Tariff Date They Do Not Price
Waller put a September hold on the table and hike odds collapsed from 63% to roughly 50% — the S&P jumped 1.06%, the VIX 5.86%. ISM services beat at 55.4 with prices paid at 72.6, and yields fell anyway. NVIDIA confirmed Hugging Face at $12.93 billion. Iran struck Gulf states a second night; WTI hit six-week highs while Energy finished the only red sector. Canadian retaliation lands September 8. Bitcoin added 5.06% and Palantir surged 7.71% on a PwC alliance.
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MIB Daily: Yields Fell and Long-Duration Software Was Sold Anyway, Diesel Runs 54% Above Last Year Into a Split FOMC, and Broadcom Guides $21.7B in AI, So Does 4.818% Hold Through Friday’s Payrolls?
Equities snapped a three-day skid as the 10-year touched 4.818%, highest since November 2023, then reversed; S&P +0.46%, Russell 2000 +1.13%, VIX -6.79%. ADP added just 38,000 jobs before Friday’s payrolls. A judge spared Google’s ad exchange from divestiture. Chevron committed $7 billion to Venezuela as Washington widened sanctions relief. Nvidia rose 3.21% on a re-reported $14 billion Hugging Face deal. Uber cut 10% of staff as Delivery Hero backed its bid. Diesel closed 12.8 cents below its all-time high.
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MIB Daily: The Hedges Failed at the Moment of the Crisis, Gold -2.39% and Treasuries Sold Off as WTI Jumped 5.82% to $90.75, Debt-Financed AI Lost 5-7%, and Soft JOLTS Left Hike Odds at 66% Into Friday’s Payrolls
US forces struck IRGC targets inside Iran; WTI jumped 5.82% to $90.75 and Energy was the only green sector of note. The 10-Year hit a one-year high of 4.799% and gutted software — Oracle -5.23%, CrowdStrike -6.90%. Soft JOLTS and a cooling ISM left September hike odds at 66%. Gold fell 2.39%; the safe-haven bid never came. Anthropic signed a $35 billion cloud deal with Nvidia-backed Lambda. A judge let the shale price-fixing case proceed against Exxon, EOG and Occidental.
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