Tag Archives | market timing

McClellan Liquidity Indices

This is a complete short, medium and long-term stock market liquidity risk-management tool derived from the McClellan Oscillator methodology applied to daily advancing and declining volume on the SP-500. It has been depicted as a daily updated chart for standard subscriptions for over 7 years now. Each day, we compute daily advancing volume (sum of […]

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Bear market rules still in force

Our first bear market signal was issued on 1 September 2015 when the Composite Market Health Index (CMHI) dipped below zero. Since then we had a sustained deterioration of the CMHI components to reinforce the signal, coupled with high stock market volatility. Although market breadth features prominently in the CMHI, there is another way to […]

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The SP-500 200-day average “Goodbye Kiss”

The SP-500 today has met back with its 200-day moving average after spending a “protracted period” of 46 trading days below it. Contrary to popular belief, history since 1972 shows this to be a bearish event, with more downside likely. Many participants on the stock markets like to use the 200-day moving average (200dma) to […]

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Stresses are building up in the system

Despite a steady rise in the SP-500 Index, clear and persistent financial stresses are starting to build up in the system. We construct a composite of the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, the Cleveland Financial Stress Index, the Kansas City Financial Stress Index and the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index as shown below: […]

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Valuation estimate of SP500 2015 returns : 2,246 target

The RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI) is a multifactor valuation model that examines cyclically adjusted trailing SP-500 earnings (various multi-decade horizons), the SP-500 total-return index level, total stock market capitalization, Gross Domestic Product, non-financial corporate equities and liabilities, non-financial corporate business net-worth and percentage of investors’ allocation to stocks versus cash and bonds to determine 10, 5, […]

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Fingerprints of a short-term market top

The SP-500 has rallied sharply since the 15th October bottom, recovering all her losses in a shorter time than it took to incur them. It was a very rare display of the opposite behavior to the norm where “the bull climbs the staircase and the bear comes down the elevator”, since in this case, the […]

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Great Trough Detector Improvements

You will notice a new layout for the Great Trough Detector (GTR) chart as shown below. The Signal Panel has been revised to be more intuitive and we have added a new count panel below that: 1. The Signal Panel The first task of this panel is to highlight your two main opportunities: Class-B : […]

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“Baby” correction belies verocity of breadth sell-off

The current stock market correction is diminutive in relative terms – hardly anything to sit up and take notice of. However an examination of underlying breadth deterioration reveals an astonishing plunge of the net new quarterly highs (the percentage of new quarterly highs less the percentage of new quarterly lows). This percentage has been languishing […]

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DeMark analysis for SP-500

PREAMBLE A detailed 18-year analysis reveals that the DeMark Setup indicators are suitable for the detection of market tops and bottoms on the SP-500 Index. We have made some modifications to the original algorithms to achieve better performance and to this end, we feel we have something that is statistically significant enough to provide a […]

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SP-500 Liquidity Crunch Warning

Losses on the SP-500 on Friday 11th saw all our measures of breadth-liquidity fall into contraction, warning of a highly vulnerable market subject to further liquidity tightness and raised volatility. To many of my staff that actively trade the SP-500, this is treated  as a bona fide correction warning. If you are scratching your heads […]

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Things could get fun from here…

At last, a decent pullback with a fat red candle on the SP-500. If the premise (see “Seven Paw-prints of the Bear“) is that we are in a well established bull market (we don’t care if its liquidity or economically fueled) then this could become a desperately needed “buy on the dip” opportunity to get aboard […]

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Zweig Breadth Thrust – The RecessionALERT Redux

Martin  Zweig was an American stock investor, investment adviser, and financial analyst. According to Forbes Magazine, he was renowned for his “eccentric and lavish lifestyle” as well as having had the most expensive residence in the United States at the time, atop The Pierre on Fifth avenue in Manhattan.  He was most well known for […]

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Measuring Selling Pressure for Market Entry Timing

This project uses a composite approach to constructing a broad representation of selling pressure on the SP-500 Index, for the purposes of gauging intensity of corrections, identifying ideal buying points for “buy on the dip” opportunities and provision of warnings of oncoming corrections. The motivation behind using many measurements for selling pressure (as opposed to […]

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SuperCycle Seasonal Timing Methodology for the SP-500

1.BACKGROUND This is a quantitative actuarial trading model for the SP-500, using purely multi-annual cyclical historical seasonal statistics to govern if it is invested in the market or not. There are no traditional technical metrics used (moving averages or market breadth) nor are any econometric models deployed in the seasonality determinations. The model is actually a […]

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Seven Paw-prints of the Bear

For decades, investors have sought out methods to detect oncoming bear markets. With this current bull market now in its 5th year the subject has become even more topical – “Has the bull market still got legs?” is a question pondered every day by millions of investors. In this research note, we cover seven of […]

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