Archive | August, 2019

SP-500 Probability Model (SPM) V1.0

Introduction The SP-500 Probability Model (SPM) is a quantitative model that attempts to measure implied unconditional probabilities that a market correction is over. In order to derive the probability that we have seen the worst of the current correction, the model examines six (6)  loosely-correlated characteristics of SP-500 corrections going back to 1995, namely: (1). […]

Read full story · Comments are closed

Yield Curve inversion suggests mild recession

There has been acute interest in the inversions currently taking place on the term-spreads around the world: And this comes as no surprise, since more than half of the world’s sovereign yield curves have now inverted… Right now, 70% of the U.S yield-curve cluster comprising the 10/5/3/2/1 year bond yields are inverted as shown below. […]

Read full story · Comments are closed