Archive | April, 2016

Recession Probability Roundup : Elevated levels

NOTE : This is a subscriber-only article that was made open for public viewership on 20 May 2016. A few subscribers have been concerned by the recent jump in recession odds of the Headwinds Index model to 60% A probability of recession of 60% most certainly also implies probability of no recession of 40% and […]

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Over 30% of States with rising unemployment

The March 2016 figures are in for state-wide unemployment and the percentage of states with growing unemployment has risen to over 30% now: The useful thing with this breadth metric is that deterioration in unemployment is made visible long before it shows up in the average national unemployment rate. Whereas the national unemployment rate is […]

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Labor market not as strong as you think

The strength of the labor market is constantly being trotted out in defense of the robust status of the US economy, but broad sets of labor data show this not to be the case. First, let us examine a very broad US labor market growth metric: This indicator needs to fall below -10 before the […]

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Animation : The incredible US employment recovery

Below is an animation of the annual average unemployment rate per U.S state from 2011 onward. It’s quite incredible to see how unemployment was erased state-by-state over the years: However statewide improvements in employment have probably peaked-out as shown in the chart below, which depicts the aggregate (equal weighted) inverse 6-month unemployment rate growth for […]

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How can we forecast 30% upside for 2016 with RAVI?

The RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI) is currently forecasting 30% growth for 2016 for the SP500 with its 1-year forecast model. “How the heck is this possible given current overvaluation of the market?” we can hear you say. Let us show you how this is calculated so we can put the forecast into context: Firstly, we […]

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The Weekly SuperIndex Report & weekly data file will be skipped this week and the next publication will be  Monday  04 Sept 2023