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MIB Weekly: AI Infrastructure Goes Institutional ($51B Backlog, Contracts Signed) — Market Priced Iran Deal and No Hike; Neither Is Confirmed

By RecessionALERT on May 30, 2026 in Reflections

Dell’s AI server blowout (+32.8%, $51.3B backlog) drove the Dow above 51,000 for the first time, confirming the AI infrastructure super-cycle as contracted structural demand. Iran’s Hormuz ceasefire sent WTI down 9% for the week — its largest monthly crude loss in six years — with Trump’s final determination still unsigned at Friday’s close. Q1 GDP 1.6%, corporate profits ‑0.4% QoQ, PCE 3.8%, and Bowman’s hawkish Fed pivot escalated June FOMC hike risk from noise to genuine debate.

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MIB Daily: MU +19% / Nasdaq 30K / IRGC Airstrikes — Semiconductors Win, Energy Fades, PCE Thursday Decides

By RecessionALERT on May 26, 2026 in Reflections

MU surged +19% after UBS tripled its price target to $1,625, lifting Nasdaq past 30,000 and S&P 500 to records. Overnight US airstrikes on IRGC targets imperiled the ceasefire, sending Brent near $100 and gasoline to $4.56/gal — a four-year high. Energy equities (CVX -3.5%, XOM -3.3%) fell despite the crude surge as markets priced Iranian supply re-entry. SpaceX received FTSE Russell fast-entry eligibility for its $1.75T IPO. Consumer Confidence slipped as two-thirds of consumers cut spending on inflation.

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MIB: Iran Off-Ramp Sparks Risk-On Rally While SpaceX Goes Public and the Energy Trade Unwinds

By RecessionALERT on April 1, 2026 in Reflections

Iran peace talk sends S&P +0.72%, WTI below $100 for first time in weeks. SpaceX files confidential IPO at $1.75T valuation — could be largest in history. Intel reclaims Irish fab from Apollo for $14.2B; INTC +8.79%, chip sector surges. Lilly’s Foundayo becomes first oral GLP-1 weight-loss pill (LLY +3.78%). IEA warns April oil supply crisis twice as bad as March. Trump floats NATO exit; XOM -5.23%, CVX -4.59%.

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MIB: Iran Diplomacy Lifts Stocks, ARM Disrupts Nvidia’s Supply Chain, and the Recession Clock Keeps Ticking

By RecessionALERT on March 25, 2026 in Reflections

Iran peace talks lift markets (S&P +0.54%) — Trump sends 15-point proposal; Tehran rejects, demands Hormuz control. ARM +12% on plan to sell own chips with Meta as anchor customer. SpaceX files for IPO this week — $1.75T valuation, biggest in history. Google TurboQuant 6x memory compression sends MU -3.4%. AMD and Intel +7% on CPU price hike reports. Gold +2.3% to $4,535 as stagflation hedge persists.

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