Advance Warning for the Professional
We post occasional thoughts and interesting observations about our U.S recession forecasting methodologies, market timing tools and the market on this blog.
We are also posting daily Market Intelligence Brief (MIB) editions here – our unique curated view on the daily news and market action – to allow for reading flexibility and research reference.
Iran’s new supreme leader vows Hormuz closure permanent; WTI near $100 for second straight day. Q4 GDP revised to +0.7% — stagflation trap confirmed. S&P 500 records third consecutive weekly loss, Nasdaq -0.68%. Adobe (ADBE) -7.5% as CEO Narayen exits after 18 years despite record Q1 beat. Trump’s Russia oil sanctions relief fails, allies furious. All eyes on FOMC March 17-18 — Powell’s stagflation signal is next week’s defining risk.
Iran’s new supreme leader vows Hormuz stays shut; oil briefly tops $100/bbl as IEA’s 400M barrel release fails. S&P 500 -1.52% to YTD low; VIX spikes to 27.29. Trump launches Section 301 probes into 16 nations as Canada’s 25% steel tariffs lock in. Private credit cracks: Morgan Stanley gates $8B fund, Deutsche Bank flags $30B exposure. Dollar General -7.8% despite earnings beat. All eyes on FOMC March 17-18 — dot plot in spotlight.
Oracle surges 12.2% as OCI results blow past estimates (RPO $553B), proving AI cloud demand is war-proof. IEA triggers largest-ever oil reserve release (400M barrels) but WTI holds above $86 — Hormuz still closed. February CPI tame at +2.4% — calm before the storm as energy shock hits March data. Centene (CNC) -14% as CEO warns ACA enrollment collapses 36%. Airlines down 30% YTD; energy sector +25% YTD. All eyes on Adobe Thursday and UMich Friday.
Iran Day 11: US launches “most intense strikes”; Iran attacks all 6 GCC nations. Energy Sec. Wright’s false Hormuz tweet sparked a $30 intraday oil crash — White House retracted in minutes. WTI settled -6.3% at $88.85; S&P seesawed -1.5% to +0.8% before closing -0.21%. Gold hit a new record at $5,211/oz (+2%). Oracle blows out Q3 AMC: Rev +22%, $553B RPO (+325% YoY). February CPI due tomorrow 8:30 AM — market-defining print.
WTI crude breached $100/bbl intraday (peak $119) — biggest oil supply disruption in history. G7+IEA authorized a record 300-400M barrel SPR release. Trump told CBS “war is very complete” — Dow swung from -900 to +239 in hours (S&P +0.83%, Nasdaq +1.38%). NOC +6%, LMT hit all-time high as defense broke out. CCL -6%, RCL -4% as cruise lines bled. Oracle reports tonight; February CPI drops tomorrow.
Feb payrolls -92K (S&P -1.3%), worst miss in years — unemployment jumped to 4.4%. Trump demands Iran ‘unconditional surrender’; WTI surged to $88 as Hormuz stays shut (Day 7). GDPNow crashed to 2.1% from 3.0% in four days. MRVL +23.2% on AI data center blowout. Fed cuts repriced to July; markets now price two 2026 cuts.
Iran fires missile at US oil tanker; WTI surges 8% to $81, sending the Dow down 784 points. Airlines crash — UAL -6%, DAL -5% — as fuel shock materializes. Energy sector breaks to 52-week highs on oil windfall. AVGO +4.8% validated AI supercycle with CEO targeting $100B chip revenue by 2027. VIX spikes 19% to 25.26. February NFP jobs report Friday — the week’s defining moment.
Iran peace talk whipsaws oil — NYT reports secret Iran-CIA outreach, Tehran denies; VIX tumbles from 26.4 to 20.4. Broadcom AI revenue doubles to $8.4B, Q2 guidance $22B (AVGO up AMC). ISM services PMI hits 56.1%, strongest since 2022. ADP +63K, but January slashed to 11K. CrowdStrike (CRWD) +1.79% on earnings digest; Ross Stores (ROST) +7% on Q4 beat. Senate defeats war powers resolution.
US-Iran war enters Day 3 — gold hit $5,417 record Monday, oil +15% this week. S&P 500 -0.94%, trimmed from intraday -2.5% loss after Trump’s Navy escort announcement. Fed’s Williams and Kashkari pull back from 2026 cut forecasts as 10Y yields rise on stagflation fears. UAL -4.09%, DAL -5% on fuel shock. Target (TGT) +7.5% on earnings beat. CrowdStrike beats after the bell.
US-Israeli “Operation Roaring Lion” kills Khamenei; Iran drones shut Qatar’s LNG plant. Oil surges 8.3% to $72.57 as Hormuz fears grip markets. S&P 500 cut intraday losses to close flat; VIX +12% to 22.40. Airlines cratered: AAL -7.4%, CCL -10%. Energy and defense surged: XOM +4.7%, PLTR +6.6%. Dell soared 22% Friday on AI server blowout ($43B backlog). ISM Manufacturing beat at 52.4 — but Prices Paid hit 70.5, an inflation alarm.
Hot PPI (+0.5%) ignites stagflation fears, sending Dow -521 pts and 10Y yield below 4% for first time in 4 months. Trump announces extra 10% China tariff effective March 4. S&P 500 logs worst February since March 2025 on AI-inflation-tariff triple threat. Gold surges to $5,200+ record as US evacuates Israel embassy staff on Iran war fears. Dell (DELL +16.64%) bucks the selloff with record $9B AI server quarter.
NVDA fell 5.5% despite record Q4 revenue ($68.1B, +73% YoY) — AI trade set to a new standard. Gold hit an all-time record above $5,200 as US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva approach Trump’s March 6 strike deadline. WBD board calls Paramount Skydance’s $31/share bid “superior” to Netflix, starting a 4-day bidding war. Dell surges 9% after hours on a $22B AI server backlog. Fed Vice Chair Bowman signals broad bank deregulation. Nasdaq -1.2%, Russell +0.5% — sharpest rotation in months.
Nvidia reported Q4 EPS of $1.62 (est. $1.53) with revenue of $68.1B and guided Q1 to $78B — sending shares +6% after-hours on a near-record beat. Markets shrugged off Trump’s SOTU optimism as economists warned the SCOTUS tariff reversal won’t translate to lower consumer prices. December PCE Core re-accelerated to 3.0% YoY — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge moving in the wrong direction and eliminating any realistic H1 rate cut. Silver surged 3.4% to near $90/oz while First Solar cratered 18% on a brutal guidance miss. S&P 500 +0.81%, Nasdaq +1.26%.
For over 2 years now, our commentary has made the point that the labor market – more particularly Payroll Employment and the Employment Level household surveys – were the “last man standing” in a sea of negative or weak leading data. For this reason, the NBER coincident models (all 3 of them) were not confirming recession. However the latest Friday BLS downward revisions, on top of countless before them, are becoming the straw that could break the camels’ back. The […]
Meta commits up to $100B to AMD GPUs (AMD +9.4%), reversing Monday’s AI selloff. S&P 500 bounced 0.77% from Monday’s “tariff disaster.” Novo Nordisk fell another 3% and announced 50% drug price cuts (dragging LLY -2.2%). PayPal surged 6.74% on Stripe acquisition reports. Bitcoin heading for worst February since 2022 crypto winter. All eyes on Nvidia earnings Wednesday.
SCOTUS struck down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs 6-3 — hours later he imposed a new 15% global tariff under Section 122, sending the S&P 500 -1.04% to 6,837 and negative for 2026. IBM cratered 13.0%, its worst day since October 2000, and CrowdStrike fell 11.3% as Anthropic’s AI coding platform upended legacy tech and cybersecurity. Gold hit a new all-time record above $5,164 on a ‘Sell America’ rotation. Fed’s Waller called a March rate cut a ‘coin flip’ as tariff chaos scrambles the inflation outlook. J.P. Morgan raised recession odds to 35%.
What’s Really Happening and How to Protect Your Portfolio Last Updated: October 27, 2025 (Day 24 of shutdown) The Bottom Line Up Front What you need to know in 60 seconds: The government shutdown is now in its 24th day, and it’s different from past shutdowns in one critical way: Food stamp benefits (SNAP) will stop for 42 million Americans starting November 1st. This creates a $12 billion hole in consumer spending every month it continues. Our best estimate: The […]
Executive Summary As the US government shutdown enters its 24th day, fund managers require a sophisticated analytical framework that properly identifies the primary market drivers. This analysis employs a hybrid approach: a 2×3 matrix capturing independent variables (duration × workforce impact), dynamic decision-tree triggers for tactical rebalancing, and regime-change assessment for strategic positioning. Critical Insight on Causality: The primary equity market risk is not the 5,000-15,000 federal layoffs themselves (only 0.01% of total employment), but rather the SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition […]
1.Introduction In the three days following President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs on April 2, 2025, dubbed “Liberation Day,” the U.S. stock market experienced a dramatic downturn, often referred to as the “Trump Tariff Tantrum.” (TTT) The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted over 2,200 points, with the S&P 500 dropping nearly 5% and the Nasdaq falling close to 6% by April 4, erasing post-election gains and wiping out an estimated $5-6.4 trillion in market value. The tariffs, including a […]
Economic Wrap is a quarterly series aimed at taking an objective, evidence-based balanced view snapshot of the US and Global economies – which of course has major implications on all stock markets. It references publicly available data at the time as well as more advanced or sophisticated proprietary models from RecessionALERT that are not publicly available. In summary, the analysis below provides an evidence-based analysis of the U.S. and global economies, highlighting a complex outlook. The U.S. labor market remains […]
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