Records on a stagflation tape. S&P (+0.55% WoW) and Nasdaq 100 (+2.37%) closed at fresh highs only because Intel’s Q1 blowout (Data Center +22% YoY) detonated a Friday semi rip — INTC +23.6%, AMD +13.9%, NVDA back through $5T — while the Dow (-0.44%), NYSE Composite (-1.13%), and Healthcare (-3.51%) refused to confirm. Brent +16% above $100 on the Hormuz standoff, Cleveland Fed CPI nowcast at 3.7%, and Friday’s UMich crashing to a record-low 49.8 with 1-yr inflation expectations un-anchoring to 4.7%. Polymarket cut-odds slipped 7.5 pp.
Tag Archives | Nvidia
MIB Digest: Intel’s 1987 Moment Lifts the Tape While the Consumer Breaks
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB: Narrow Record — Intel Blowout and DOJ-Powell Resolution Lift S&P/Nasdaq as UMich Hits All-Time Low
S&P 500 (+0.80%) and Nasdaq 100 (+1.95%) hit fresh records as Intel (+23.6%) blew out Q1 — best day since 1987 — dragging AMD (+13.9%) and NVDA (+4.3%, back above $5T). But the rally was narrow: Dow (-0.16%), Transports (-0.94%), NYSE Composite all red. DOJ dropped its Powell probe, clearing Warsh’s path; 10Y slipped to 4.31%. UMich sentiment crashed to a record-low 49.8 with 1-year inflation expectations spiking to 4.7%. Mega-cap tech earnings loom next week.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MARKETS: Bull Flows. Bear Physics. One Timeline.
For three years the US equity market ignored soft recession signals and was arguably right to. It now faces its first hard signal — the largest oil supply disruption in history — and thirteen consecutive up-days into a Federal Reserve pause suggest the same mechanisms that dismissed the soft signals may dismiss it. Mechanical buyers carry the tape. Demand destruction already sits in the weekly data. Q2 earnings are the collision point. Between now and late August, the market will answer.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB: Arrested, Crashed, and Breached — SMCI Co-Founder Busted, Semis Collapse, and S&P Falls Below Its 200-Day
Fed’s hawkish echo crushes markets: S&P -1.51%, VIX +11%, 200-DMA breached for first time in 214 sessions. Semis rout: INTC -5%, MU -4.81%, NVDA -3.28% on post-GTC sell-the-news. SMCI co-founder arrested for smuggling $2.5B in Nvidia chips to China (SMCI -28%). 10Y yields spike +10 bps to 4.384%. Iran targets Gulf energy — WTI hits $98. FedEx surges +9% after blockbuster beat-and-raise.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB: Stagflation Trap — Hot PPI, Hawkish Fed, and $100 Oil Push Recession Odds to 49%
Hot PPI (+0.7% MoM) and a hawkish FOMC dot plot slam markets — S&P -1.36%, Dow -768 pts. WTI crude near $100 as Strait of Hormuz enters week three; Moody’s raises US recession odds to 49%. AbbVie -5.20% as J&J wins FDA approval for competing oral psoriasis drug. Mastercard -3.57% on $1.8B stablecoin BVNK acquisition. Micron (MU) reports record Q2 revenue of $23.86B AMC (+196% YoY); markets react Thursday.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB: FOMC Day One, Oil Resumes Rally, Amazon’s $600B AI Bet, and a Brutal LLY Downgrade
Oil resumed its climb — WTI $96, Brent $103+ — as FOMC Day 1 began and Monday’s de-escalation optimism faded. Amazon CEO Jassy doubled AWS 10-year target to $600B on AI demand (AMZN +1%). HSBC issued a rare Sell on LLY (-5.3%) citing GLP-1 market TAM saturation and imminent price wars. February retail sales beat (+0.6%) showed the consumer holding firm. Delta (DAL +6%) and American (AAL +4%) lifted Q1 guidance — travel demand crushing oil cost headwinds.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB: GTC Sparks Relief Rally — Nvidia’s $1T AI Forecast, FOMC Dot Plot, USMCA Launch, and the Hormuz Oil Clock
Nvidia’s GTC keynote delivers $1T AI chip order forecast (NVDA +2.2%), snapping the S&P’s 3-week losing streak (+1.01%). Meta plans to cut 20% of staff (16K jobs) to fund $135B AI build. USMCA formal review launches — US and Mexico
begin talks with a July 1 deadline. Oil retreats ~4% from overnight highs but Hormuz stays closed. FOMC convenes tomorrow; stagflation dot plot is the week’s defining risk. Bitcoin hits 6-week high ($74.5K, +3.7%).
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB: Iran Day 11 — False Hormuz Tweet, Oracle AI Blowout, and Tomorrow’s Defining CPI Print
Iran Day 11: US launches “most intense strikes”; Iran attacks all 6 GCC nations. Energy Sec. Wright’s false Hormuz tweet sparked a $30 intraday oil crash — White House retracted in minutes. WTI settled -6.3% at $88.85; S&P seesawed -1.5% to +0.8% before closing -0.21%. Gold hit a new record at $5,211/oz (+2%). Oracle blows out Q3 AMC: Rev +22%, $553B RPO (+325% YoY). February CPI due tomorrow 8:30 AM — market-defining print.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB: January PPI Beats, China Tariffs Escalate, Iran Risk Surges, and Dell Defies the Tech Rout
Hot PPI (+0.5%) ignites stagflation fears, sending Dow -521 pts and 10Y yield below 4% for first time in 4 months. Trump announces extra 10% China tariff effective March 4. S&P 500 logs worst February since March 2025 on AI-inflation-tariff triple threat. Gold surges to $5,200+ record as US evacuates Israel embassy staff on Iran war fears. Dell (DELL +16.64%) bucks the selloff with record $9B AI server quarter.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB: AI Sentiment Reset, Gold at Record $5,200, and the $30B Warner Bros. Bidding War
NVDA fell 5.5% despite record Q4 revenue ($68.1B, +73% YoY) — AI trade set to a new standard. Gold hit an all-time record above $5,200 as US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva approach Trump’s March 6 strike deadline. WBD board calls Paramount Skydance’s $31/share bid “superior” to Netflix, starting a 4-day bidding war. Dell surges 9% after hours on a $22B AI server backlog. Fed Vice Chair Bowman signals broad bank deregulation. Nasdaq -1.2%, Russell +0.5% — sharpest rotation in months.
Read full story · Comments are closed
MIB: PCE Re-Accelerates, Consumer Confidence Craters, and Nvidia Defies the Macro
Nvidia reported Q4 EPS of $1.62 (est. $1.53) with revenue of $68.1B and guided Q1 to $78B — sending shares +6% after-hours on a near-record beat. Markets shrugged off Trump’s SOTU optimism as economists warned the SCOTUS tariff reversal won’t translate to lower consumer prices. December PCE Core re-accelerated to 3.0% YoY — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge moving in the wrong direction and eliminating any realistic H1 rate cut. Silver surged 3.4% to near $90/oz while First Solar cratered 18% on a brutal guidance miss. S&P 500 +0.81%, Nasdaq +1.26%.
Read full story · Comments are closed