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MIB: Iran Day 11 — False Hormuz Tweet, Oracle AI Blowout, and Tomorrow’s Defining CPI Print

By RecessionALERT on March 10, 2026 in Reflections

Iran Day 11: US launches “most intense strikes”; Iran attacks all 6 GCC nations. Energy Sec. Wright’s false Hormuz tweet sparked a $30 intraday oil crash — White House retracted in minutes. WTI settled -6.3% at $88.85; S&P seesawed -1.5% to +0.8% before closing -0.21%. Gold hit a new record at $5,211/oz (+2%). Oracle blows out Q3 AMC: Rev +22%, $553B RPO (+325% YoY). February CPI due tomorrow 8:30 AM — market-defining print.

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MIB: Iran Missile Strike Sends Oil to $81, Airlines Crater, and Broadcom’s $100B AI Target Holds the Nasdaq Floor

By RecessionALERT on March 5, 2026 in Reflections

Iran fires missile at US oil tanker; WTI surges 8% to $81, sending the Dow down 784 points. Airlines crash — UAL -6%, DAL -5% — as fuel shock materializes. Energy sector breaks to 52-week highs on oil windfall. AVGO +4.8% validated AI supercycle with CEO targeting $100B chip revenue by 2027. VIX spikes 19% to 25.26. February NFP jobs report Friday — the week’s defining moment.

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MIB: Senate Clears Iran Strikes, Services PMI Hits 4-Year High, and Broadcom’s AI Revenue Doubles to $8.4B

By RecessionALERT on March 4, 2026 in Reflections

Iran peace talk whipsaws oil — NYT reports secret Iran-CIA outreach, Tehran denies; VIX tumbles from 26.4 to 20.4. Broadcom AI revenue doubles to $8.4B, Q2 guidance $22B (AVGO up AMC). ISM services PMI hits 56.1%, strongest since 2022. ADP +63K, but January slashed to 11K. CrowdStrike (CRWD) +1.79% on earnings digest; Ross Stores (ROST) +7% on Q4 beat. Senate defeats war powers resolution.

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MIB: Hormuz Crisis Day 3 — Oil +15%, Stagflation Signal Flashes, Fed Pulls Back on Rate Cuts

By RecessionALERT on March 3, 2026 in Reflections

US-Iran war enters Day 3 — gold hit $5,417 record Monday, oil +15% this week. S&P 500 -0.94%, trimmed from intraday -2.5% loss after Trump’s Navy escort announcement. Fed’s Williams and Kashkari pull back from 2026 cut forecasts as 10Y yields rise on stagflation fears. UAL -4.09%, DAL -5% on fuel shock. Target (TGT) +7.5% on earnings beat. CrowdStrike beats after the bell.

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MIB: January PPI Beats, China Tariffs Escalate, Iran Risk Surges, and Dell Defies the Tech Rout

By RecessionALERT on February 27, 2026 in Reflections

Hot PPI (+0.5%) ignites stagflation fears, sending Dow -521 pts and 10Y yield below 4% for first time in 4 months. Trump announces extra 10% China tariff effective March 4. S&P 500 logs worst February since March 2025 on AI-inflation-tariff triple threat. Gold surges to $5,200+ record as US evacuates Israel embassy staff on Iran war fears. Dell (DELL +16.64%) bucks the selloff with record $9B AI server quarter.

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