Flash PMI shocked at 56.0, a 52-month high, putting Q3 growth near 3%: cyclicals bought it, the two-year charged for it. US-Canada talks collapsed; 50% duties hit $20B of Canadian goods at midnight. Gold cleared $4,672 and Bitcoin ran 6.69% to $77,522 with the dollar flat and yields higher. Tesla +5.14% on Nevada’s first paid robotaxi permits; Marvell -5.56% despite a 38% target raise. Fourteen Walmart cuts, eight Ross raises, same session. Oil rigs fell a third straight week.
Tag Archives | Iran
MIB Daily: Not a Rate-Cut Rally but a Growth One, PMI 56.0 With the 2Y Charging 4.7bps, Gold $4,672 and Bitcoin $77,522 Bid on a Flat Dollar, Utilities -1.97% Into Warsh in Seven Days
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MIB Daily: The Backstop Lasted One Day, With Volatility Rising Alongside Yields to 5.248%, Walmart Down 9.15% on a Beat, and Memory and Bitcoin the Only Bid Before Warsh Speaks on August 28
Wednesday’s Treasury buyback rally unwound in one session — 30-year back to 5.248%, S&P -0.87%, Dow -1.32%, VIX +7.52%. Bessent promised a bigger program, and “the toughest sanctions in history” on Iran: WTI +2.28%, gasoline a record for the date. Musalem and Daly split on whether the long end is a credibility warning. Walmart -9.15% on a comps miss. Memory bucked the tape again: Marvell +5.79%, Micron +3.97%. Bitcoin +5.07% past $72,000. Canada’s 50% duties attach Saturday with nothing published.
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MIB Daily: The Debt Manager Rescued the Long End, Not the Fed, as Chips Fell 5.6% With 30 of 30 Down and Nebius -9.87% Repriced AI’s Funding End, Leaving Healthcare +3.37% and Metals +3.62% Hostage to Rates
Treasury doubled its long-bond buybacks and the tape turned: 10-year -6.8 bps, dollar -0.86%, gold +3.60%. Not a Fed trade: the July minutes showed several members ready to hike, nobody for a cut, and the market shrugged. Chips fell 5.6% a second day, all 30 down. Merck +12.60% on the first Phase 3 win for a cancer vaccine. Marvell handed Google a $12.2bn warrant; Broadcom paid -4.61%. Canada’s 50% tariffs pause three days; Bitcoin +6.25% on an SEC framework.
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MIB Daily: One Analysis, No New Demand Data, 5.4% Off the Chips, Software Still Green, GDPNow Cut to 4.03%, and a 56% No-Landing Book That Argues for Rotating Within Risk Assets Rather Than Adding
A Wall Street Journal tally of $3 trillion in off-balance-sheet AI commitments gutted the memory complex — SNDK -9%, MU -7%, chips -5.4% — and dragged the Nasdaq 100 down 1.68%. Trump says no Iran talks; a bulk carrier was struck inside Hormuz and crude rose a third session. Housing starts collapsed 12.4%. Section 338 tariffs on Canada bite at midnight. GDPNow’s Q3 estimate has lost a third in a fortnight. Gold fell 1.79% anyway — the hedge failed.
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MIB Daily: The Front End Didn’t Blink, WTI +3.23% and the 30-Year at 5.31% Lifted Energy While Communication Services Bled, Nvidia’s $105B Ohio Bet, Meta’s $1.4T Trial, Wednesday’s Auction the Test
The US-Iran framework expired with no extension and Trump threatened to bomb Oman — WTI +3.23% to $84.10, Energy led. The 30-year yield hit 5.31%, highest since 2007, while the 2-year barely moved. Nvidia guaranteed up to $105B for one OpenAI campus in Ohio. Meta’s youth-harms trial opened with $1.4T on the table; META -3.54%. Canada has 36 hours before a 50% tariff. Anthropic posted $11.5B Q2 revenue and its first operating profit.
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MIB Daily: Bad News Stopped Being Good News, Weak Retail Sales and Hormuz Risk Lifted Yields as AMD’s Bond Deal Beat Broadcom’s AI Debt Fears, Setting Up Wednesday’s Tariff Cliff for Energy Over Tech
A record intraday high evaporated: retail sales fell 0.6% and UMich sentiment crashed to 51.0 — yet Treasuries sold off, because inflation expectations rose. The 10Y hit 4.692% and GDPNow cut Q3 growth to 4.3%. AMD surged 6.50% on a record $4.75B bond deal while Broadcom sank 5.94% on hidden AI debt. Goldman began syndicating Nvidia’s $500B financing. The UAE accused Iran of piracy in Hormuz. And Canada is five days from a 50% tariff cliff.
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MIB Daily: Oil’s 5% Hormuz shock reprices inflation risk as chipmakers tap $500B in outside AI financing and a second chokepoint breaks the rerouting hedge — does September turn stagflationary after Wednesday’s CPI?
Oil ripped 5.2% after Iran demanded the US blockade lift before Hormuz reopens — Energy +3.61%, the S&P still closed flat. Yields and VIX rose together: an inflation scare, not a growth one, two days before CPI. Cleveland’s Hammack wants more than one hike. Chips led the downside — Nvidia -2.87% on $500B of financing, Intel -4.04% on a $15B raise — while TSMC’s July revenue hit a record. Palo Alto and CrowdStrike set records. Vertex jumped 6% on a rival’s failure.
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MIB Weekly: The Market Outvoted Five Fed Hawks and Bought a Record on a 23K Job Loss — AI Now Pays for Capital Discipline, Not Growth, and a Beat Buys Nothing; Wednesday’s CPI Can Undo All of It
The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,757.46, up 3.57% on the week, after July payrolls contracted 23,000 against an +83,000 consensus and priced a September rate hike out of the front end — over the objections of five Fed officials who spent four sessions arguing for one. Crude round-tripped 8.8% lower on the Hormuz reopening trade, leaving Energy down 3.66% with the strait still shut. Palantir surged 39.78%; AMD beat on every line and fell 7% on its capex.
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MIB Daily: Wall Street Bet a 23K Payrolls Miss Was Dovish as GDPNow Tracks 5.8% — S&P Hits a Record 7,757, Hike Odds Fall to 40%, and Washington Moves to Remove Fed Governor Cook; Favor Small-Caps, Utilities Over Energy
July payrolls contracted 23,000 against +83,000 expected — and the S&P 500 closed at a record 7,757.46 anyway, capping its best week since April. September hike odds collapsed from above 50% to 40%. Gold ripped 2.31% to $4,398.87; copper fell 1.87%. Energy was the only sector down more than 1% as crude surrendered Thursday’s Hormuz spike. Trump’s polysilicon tariff sent First Solar up 9%. And the White House restarted its bid to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
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MIB Daily: Oil Just Took the Fed’s Steering Wheel — Brent +4.72% Overrides Soft Labor Costs While GS -2.62% and C -2.78% Drag the Dow, Williams Waves Off an AI Bubble, and Crude Sparks a Rotation Ahead of Friday’s Payrolls
Iran’s restrictive Hormuz draft blew up the reopening trade — Brent +4.72% to $83.20, Energy the lone sector gainer. Banks dragged the Dow down 464 points; Goldman and Citi each off more than 2.5%. Q2 unit labour costs came in at 1.3% against 2.1% expected and claims held below 200K for a third week — yields rose anyway. SpaceX doubled its float and still closed up 6.14%. Williams says AI isn’t a bubble; tech steadied, Microsoft +2.54%. July payrolls Friday, 80K expected.
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MIB Daily: Oil Did the Fed’s Job Today — WTI’s 5.52% Crash Funds a Record Dow and a $3T Amazon, But Chips and Transports Aren’t Buying the Truce
Trump called off strikes on Iran and crude cratered — WTI -5.52% to $80 — but Tehran denies talking to Washington and Hormuz stays shut. The Dow closed at a record 53,178.41, and this time breadth came along: 8 of 11 sectors green, Russell +1.72%. ISM manufacturing hit a post-2022 high and GDPNow leapt to 6.2%; bonds rallied anyway. Williams says the Fed hikes if inflation stalls. AstraZeneca-Bristol Myers weighed a $400bn merger; AZN fell 9%. Amazon topped $3 trillion.
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MIB Weekly: $720-745B Settled the Capex Question and Paid the Suppliers — But Memory Turned Into a Tax, the Curve Priced Out the Cut, and Transports Fell Five for Five
Wednesday’s 9-3 FOMC hold — three members dissenting for a hike, the first such split since 2016 — knocked 2.18% off the Dow in its worst session since April 2025. Then Microsoft (+21.75% on the week) and Amazon (+17.00%) answered July’s AI-capex scare with $720-745 billion of committed 2026 spending, and the S&P closed up 1.05%. Underneath, the Dow Transports fell all five sessions, Q2 growth undershot at 1.5% and Apple lost 7.35% on memory costs.
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MIB Daily: Amazon’s 15.32% Surge Fuels a $720B Capex Bet — But 4.716% Yields and Falling Real Wages Say Own the Suppliers, Not the Rally
Amazon exploded 15.32% on a 37% AWS quarter; Apple sank 7.35% on tariff-driven chip costs. The four hyperscalers now commit $720-745B to 2026 capex, up 77% from last year. Yet the S&P’s 0.70% gain hid eight red sectors, a falling Russell 2000 and Technology down 0.49%. The 10-year closed at 4.716%, highest since January 2025, as Barkin urged reversing 2025’s cuts. Brent capped a 23% July after Iran halted Hormuz traffic. Warsh may halve the FOMC calendar to four meetings.
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MIB Daily: Wall Street Sold the Fear, Not the Risk — Chips Reload on AI Capex as Defensives Fund the Trade and GDP’s 6.3% Price Index Keeps the Question Open
Wall Street erased Wednesday’s Fed-day rout: Nasdaq 100 +3.36%, S&P 500 +1.67%, VIX -17.33%. Microsoft surged 15.5% on 43% Azure growth; Meta sank 7.95%. Semis went vertical — Micron +18%, Lam +18%, AMAT +15%, AMD +13%. But Q2 GDP undershot at 1.5% with the price index spiking to 6.3%, and Dow Transports fell 1.74%. June core PCE cooled to 3.3%; jobless claims held at 197K. US strikes hit Iran overnight, yet crude closed lower and the dollar broke below 100.
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MIB Daily: The Fed Put Just Got Cheaper — 19-Year Bond Yields and a Trillion-Dollar Chip Wipeout Leave Thursday’s Core PCE to Decide Stagflation, Favoring Macro Hedges Over Tech and Industrials
The Fed held at 3.50%-3.75% but three members dissented for a hike — the first three-way hawkish split since 2016 — and the Dow fell 2.18%, its worst day since April 2025. The 30-year hit a 19-year high at 5.21%. Iran struck a US base in Jordan and rejected Oman’s Hormuz plan; WTI jumped 6.74%. SK Hynix’s miss tipped the Nasdaq 100 into correction, erasing $1 trillion of global chip value. Caterpillar sank 6.91% on data-centre permitting risk.
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MIB Daily: Intel Fell 7.89% on a Blowout Quarter as Semis Shed 4.4% and Apple Rose 3.53% — a 12.5% Tariff Floor Now Covers 99.4% of Imports, and a Split FOMC Meets Wednesday
Section 301 forced-labor tariffs of 10-12.5% hit 60 economies covering 99.4% of US imports — a durable levy replacing the struck-down IEEPA regime. An AI capex scare gutted chips: Intel -7.89% after a blowout quarter, SanDisk -10.79%, Micron -6.99%. Apple +3.53% and IBM +3.65% won the rotation. Crude reversed hard, Brent -2.50% to $98, on a China-brokered Iran overture. July PMI hit an eight-month high of 53.6. A third of the rates market now prices a Wednesday hike.
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MIB Daily: Oil’s Surge to $86 and 5.16% Yields Hand the Fed Its Excuse — Energy Leads as Alphabet, Tesla Defend $489B in AI Debt
Oil hit six-week highs — WTI +2.73%, Brent +3.32% — as an 11th night of US strikes on Iran, a Houthi Red Sea blockade threat, and a Caspian Pipeline attack compound at once, dragging gold to $4,140 while stocks slipped (S&P -0.14%, Nasdaq 100 -0.54%). Deutsche Bank and BofA now see 2-3 more Fed hikes after a weak 20-year auction pushed yields to 5.16%. Dell +9.32%, GE Vernova -8.69%, Palantir -6.10%. Alphabet and Tesla report after the bell.
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MIB Daily: MU +12%, SNDK +14% Rally as Fed Zeroes Out 2026 Cuts — Can AI Survive a Hawkish FOMC and Friday’s Tariff Deadline?
Memory chips ignite a broad market rally — Micron +12%, SanDisk +14% — pushing the Nasdaq 1.93% higher on 9-of-11 green sectors. But the backdrop turned hostile: Fed officials’ hawkish pre-blackout chorus erased 2026 rate-cut odds to zero and priced in 47% hike odds ahead of next week’s FOMC. Oil jumped to a five-week high on a tanker strike near the Strait of Hormuz. Trump also slapped 50% tariffs on Canada, with a global tariff overhaul looming as Friday’s stopgap expires.
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MIB Daily: Twin Gulf Chokepoints Push Gas Past $4 as the Fed Holds the Line — AMD (+5%) Pulls Away From Oracle’s Cost Overruns (-4%)
Iran’s IRGC torched two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and declared it sealed — then Yemen’s Houthis opened a second front, blockading Saudi Arabia’s export lifeline. Gasoline just crossed $4/gallon, landing days before Fed Chair Warsh’s “no tolerance” inflation stance faces its July 28-29 test. A judge blocked Paramount Skydance’s $110B Warner Bros. Discovery deal. AMD surged 5% on a new Azure AI mega-deal; Oracle sank another 4% on data-center cost overruns. Stocks fell a third day, though chips rebounded.
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MIB Weekly: SOX -20% Into a Bear Market as PANW Hits Records and Oil Jumps 15% — the Fed Still Won’t Blink Despite Cooling CPI
The Strait of Hormuz war escalated all week — a reinstated blockade, six nights of US strikes, and a Friday threat to close a second chokepoint — pushing oil up 15%. A parallel AI-capex credibility crisis pushed the semiconductor index into a bear market, even as PayPal surged 16-17% on a $53 billion takeover bid from Stripe and Advent. IBM crashed 25% (worst since 1987) while Goldman Sachs surged 9% to a record high, and the Fed stayed hawkish despite cooling inflation.
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