TABLE OF CONTENTS

A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
B. MARKET DATA
C. HIGH-IMPACT STORIES (5)
D. MODERATE-IMPACT STORIES (7)
E. ECONOMY WATCH (6)
F. EARNINGS WATCH (1)
G. WHAT’S NEXT
H. CHART OF THE DAY

A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -> TOP

B. MARKET DATA -> TOP

Stocks closed a volatile week higher as a reprieve in crude, on hopes of a phased US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, let equities look past a 10-year yield holding near its highest level since the financial crisis. The advance was broad-based risk-on, with Microsoft’s Copilot overhaul and a chip bid carrying technology while energy lagged on the oil retreat. Bonds largely joined the calmer tape: the VIX fell 5.1% and eight of 11 sectors rose as the 2-year and 10-year eased from Thursday’s highs, leaving the 30-year, up to 5.49% on the Treasury curve, as the one tenor that did not. Small caps barely moved, leaving large-cap leadership intact for a fifth straight session.

CLOSING PRICES – Friday, September 25, 2026:

MAJOR INDICES

The Dow led and snapped a three-week losing streak while the Russell 2000 barely moved. A Dow Theory non-confirmation emerges today: industrials sit within 1.4% of their 10-session high while transports remain 5.6% below theirs, reversing yesterday’s bear confirmation. Narrow mega-cap leadership is entrenched, with the S&P 500 beating the Russell 2000 by 3.4 points over 10 sessions for a fifth straight session, and concentrated tech leadership (Nasdaq 100 +4.2% vs S&P 500 +1.1% over 10 sessions) extends into a second session.

VOLATILITY & TREASURIES

The curve bull-steepened: the 2-year rallied 7.7 bps and the 10-year eased 4.1 bps from Thursday’s post-2007 high, leaving 2s10s at about 30 bps. Only the 30-year held out, rising about 2 bps to 5.49% on the Treasury curve, so the calmer risk tape signalled by a falling VIX and a softer dollar was confirmed at the front and belly but not at the very long end.

COMMODITIES

Precious metals firmed together, with platinum and silver outpacing gold, while copper slipped, a split between the monetary and industrial complexes on a day the dollar eased. Bitcoin edged lower against a rising equity tape, decoupling from risk sentiment with no crypto-specific catalyst identified.

ENERGY

WTI and Brent fell in near lockstep, extending the retreat that began with Thursday’s report of US-Iran talks on a phased Hormuz reopening, while the Brent-WTI spread held near $12, which The National puts at its widest since May. Henry Hub gave back part of Thursday’s pipeline-driven spike and Dutch TTF fell with crude. Oil fell while equities rose.

S&P 500 SECTORS

Technology led again, extending a trend visible across its week, month and quarter. Energy, the year’s runaway leader, fell for a session that deepened its weekly reversal. Eight of 11 sectors rose; the holdouts were Energy (-0.96%), Communication Services (-0.58%) and rate-sensitive Real Estate (-0.23%), which slipped with the 10-year near post-2008 highs.

TOP MEGA-CAP MOVERS:

GAINERS

DECLINERS

C. HIGH-IMPACT STORIES -> TOP

1. Microsoft Jumps 3.66% to Lead the Dow and S&P 500 After Unveiling Its Biggest Copilot Overhaul, With Home, Code and an Always-On Autopilot Agent Priced on Usage

The core facts:Microsoft on Friday unveiled a Copilot rebuilt around three tabs. Home puts chat and Cowork, where longer jobs are delegated, on one screen and lets users create and edit Word, Excel and PowerPoint files without leaving Copilot. Code lets users without a development background build small applications, trackers, dashboards and automations by describing them in plain language. Autopilot is an agent given a name, a role and a goal by its owner that keeps working inside Microsoft 365 when nobody is using it; it enters private preview at the end of September, while Home and Code begin rolling out through Microsoft’s Frontier early-access program in the coming weeks. Chief Executive Satya Nadella called the product “a new OS for work.” Microsoft said customers will pay for Cowork, Code and Autopilot based on usage rather than through a per-seat subscription like the $30-per-user-per-month Microsoft 365 Copilot. Oppenheimer raised its price target to $570. The shares closed at $516.17, up 3.66%, and Microsoft led both the S&P 500 (+0.51%) and the Dow (+0.93%) higher.

Why it matters:The pricing change is the substance. Seat-based Copilot has faced persistent questions about adoption, and moving the agentic parts of the product to consumption billing ties Microsoft’s AI revenue to how much work the agents actually do, the same model its Azure cloud already runs on. It is also a direct answer to Anthropic and OpenAI, whose coding and agent tools have been competing for the same enterprise budgets, and it lands in a week when Meta’s Muse agent launch had put agentic AI at the centre of large-cap trading. For the index, a single mega-cap adding more than 3.5% on a product event carries real weight: Technology led all 11 sectors at +0.85%, with Microsoft and a broad chip bid doing the lifting.

What to watch:Autopilot’s private-preview launch at the end of September, and whether Microsoft’s next quarterly report begins to break out consumption-based Copilot revenue.

2. WTI Falls 2.01% to $92.71 and Brent 1.84% to $104.64 as Hopes for a Phased US-Iran Hormuz Deal Extend the Retreat, Pushing the Brent-WTI Spread to Its Widest Since May

The core facts:Crude fell on Friday, with WTI closing at $92.71 (-2.01%) and Brent at $104.64 (-1.84%). The pullback began during Thursday’s session, when Reuters, Bloomberg and Semafor reported that US and Iranian negotiators in New York, with Qatar mediating, were exploring a phased path out of the nearly seven-month conflict in which Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and Washington would lift its economic blockade. The National, citing Reuters, put the Brent-WTI spread at $12.68, its widest since May, and said the prospect of a US diesel export ban was weighing on WTI. Brent’s decline was tempered by continued Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, which said on Thursday it had intercepted missiles launched by the group. Gas fell with crude: Henry Hub lost 3.37% to $3.186 and Dutch TTF 3.89%. Energy was the worst of the 11 S&P 500 sectors at -0.96%, with Exxon Mobil down 0.96% and Chevron 0.58%.

Why it matters:Crude remains the market’s main inflation input, and Friday’s decline takes some pressure off a Fed that is openly weighing an October hike. But the talks have been reported, not concluded: the proposal founders on the same problem as earlier rounds, since neither side wants to give up its main source of leverage first, and Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure keep a floor under Brent. The widening spread is the domestic angle. A diesel export ban would trap refined product at home, which is bearish for US crude relative to seaborne barrels and would squeeze refiners’ export margins, and business groups are lobbying against it.

What to watch:Any formal US response to Iran’s terms for reopening Hormuz, and whether the White House signs the proposed diesel export ban, which had not appeared in its presidential-actions listing as of Friday afternoon.

3. Xi Ends His White House Visit With No New Purchase Deals as USTR Greer Says the Sides Agreed on a “Subset” of Nonsensitive Goods, With Details Due Monday and Advanced Chips Off the Table

The core facts:Chinese President Xi Jinping left Washington on Friday at the end of his state visit without new purchase deals being announced. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told CNBC the US would send “agricultural products and medical devices” while “we’re getting from them, you know, consumer goods and other things that are non-sensitive,” and that “we will release on Monday, I think, a lot more details about what we’ve accomplished.” He said advanced semiconductors were not part of the talks: “These are the crown jewels of American technology… those conversations … (are) not really happening in these negotiations,” adding “We’re in a managed trade situation … we’ve had progress.” US Ambassador David Perdue said on Fox News that President Trump told Xi that helping Iran was “unacceptable.” Yahoo Finance reported that the two sides will hold a summit on AI issues, including safety, in Shenzhen in November. China’s 15% tariff on US liquefied natural gas remains in place.

Why it matters:The visit preserved the status quo rather than resetting it. The truce extension to January 10 was agreed as Xi arrived, so the question for markets was whether the summit would add substance, and on Friday it added a framework without numbers: no dollar value, no tariff rates and no energy, soybean or aircraft commitments. Greer’s refusal to put chips on the table matters most for US semiconductors, since it signals that export controls on high-end AI hardware will not be traded for purchase commitments. The Iran message links the trade track to the oil market, where China is the largest buyer of Iranian crude.

What to watch:The trade details USTR has promised for Monday, Sept 28, then the G20 Trade Ministerial in Milwaukee from Sept 29 to Oct 1, where Greer speaks on Sept 30.

4. Fed’s Hammack Says Policy Is Not Restraining the Economy Outside Housing and That Rising Long Yields Reflect Real Rates, Not Lost Confidence on Inflation

The core facts:Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, a 2026 FOMC voter, used a panel at the Cleveland Fed’s inflation conference on Friday to argue that the bond selloff is not an inflation scare. “It’s real rates that have moved up more than the inflation expectations,” she said, adding “We’re reasonably well anchored from an inflation expectations perspective.” She attributed higher yields to a strong economic outlook, competition for investor capital from the technology sector and markets adjusting to monetary policy. She also said she does not see current policy restraining the economy outside housing, and that the two sides of the Fed’s mandate are generally not in conflict. The remarks came on the day the University of Michigan’s final September survey showed year-ahead inflation expectations rising to 4.6% (detailed in Section E). On the Treasury’s par curve the 30-year yield closed Friday at 5.49%, above Thursday’s 5.47%, with the 10-year above 5%, while the 2-year fell.

Why it matters:Hammack’s diagnosis cuts both ways for markets. Reading the long-end selloff as a rise in real rates on growth and AI capital demand, rather than as de-anchoring, is reassuring about the Fed’s credibility. But her view that policy is not yet restraining most of the economy is the argument for tightening further, and it comes from a voter. That combination is consistent with a curve that steepened from the front: the 2-year eased while the long end did not rally with equities. Her reading also sits awkwardly beside the Michigan survey, where both one-year and long-run expectations rose; if household expectations keep climbing, the “well anchored” judgement is the one that will be tested first.

What to watch:August core PCE on Wednesday, Sept 30, the last major inflation print before the Oct 27-28 FOMC, and the 30-year Treasury yield after Friday’s 5.49% close.

5. Core Capital-Goods Orders Jump 1.6% as the AI Build-Out Keeps Business Investment Running Hot, Supporting Industrials but Strengthening the Case for an October Hike

The core facts:Friday’s August durable goods report beat on the headline, and its core business-investment gauge, nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft, rose 1.6% (full data in Section E). The same day brought a concrete example of where the spending is going: Atlas Energy Solutions said it had signed cost-reimbursement agreements with an unnamed “leading frontier AI lab” and ordered an additional 283 MW of Caterpillar power-generation equipment for the customer, sending its shares up about 17% intraday. On the tape, Industrials rose 0.76% and Caterpillar was one of the two high-priced gainers, with Microsoft, that led the Dow’s 0.93% advance. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker stood at 5.0% for third-quarter growth after the release.

Why it matters:Core orders are the leading indicator for equipment investment, and a 1.6% monthly gain says the AI infrastructure cycle is still broadening beyond chips into power, electrical and industrial equipment, the order books that support names such as Caterpillar, Eaton and Vertiv. That is the constructive read for cyclicals. The policy read is less friendly: an economy tracking 5% growth with rising capex gives the Fed little reason to hold back, and it reinforces Cleveland Fed President Hammack’s view the same day that policy is not restraining activity outside housing.

What to watch:ISM Manufacturing on Thursday, Oct 1, and the revised factory orders report on Friday, Oct 2, which updates Friday’s advance durable goods figures.

D. MODERATE-IMPACT STORIES -> TOP

6. New Mexico Jury Finds Meta Deceived Users Over Cambridge Analytica-Era Privacy Protections as Four Brokers Lift Targets; Shares Fall 3.33%

The core facts:A jury in Santa Fe found on Friday that Facebook misled the public about its privacy protections in the investigations into data brokers that followed the Cambridge Analytica scandal, finding more than two million violations of New Mexico law according to the Associated Press. The state is seeking the $5,000-per-violation maximum, and the judge will set the amount at a later date. Meta said it disagrees with the verdict and will continue to defend itself. New Mexico won a separate $942 million judgment against Meta earlier this year over child-safety protections. On the same day Deutsche Bank raised its target to $820 from $750, Piper Sandler to $875 from $785, TD Cowen to $865 from $750 and Canaccord to $950 from $930, following the launch of Meta’s Muse AI agent. Meta closed at $751.66, down 3.33%, after a rally of roughly 13% earlier in the week.

Why it matters:The verdict adds to a growing stack of state-level liabilities that are individually manageable for a company of Meta’s size but hard to size in advance, because the penalty depends on a violation count that reports have not settled. How much of Friday’s decline it explains is not established: the stock was already giving back a sharp Muse-driven run, and analysts were raising targets into the drop. The split is the useful signal. Wall Street is pricing the agent opportunity upward while the legal overhang, which a judge rather than a jury will now quantify, sits outside those models.

What to watch:Judge Francis Mathew’s penalty determination, which has not been scheduled.

7. Bank of America Double-Downgrades Nike to Underperform and Cuts Its Target to $30 From $47, Six Days Before Earnings

The core facts:Bank of America analyst Lorraine Hutchinson cut Nike two notches to Underperform from Neutral on Friday and lowered her price target to $30 from $47. The note cites an incomplete cleanup of Nike’s North American marketplace, weaker Chinese sportswear demand and pressure in Europe, and warns of downside risk to earnings with innovation overshadowed; BofA now expects the turnaround to take until fiscal 2028. Nike closed at $35.75, down 0.67%, near levels last seen in 2014 and down about 43% this year. The company reports fiscal first-quarter results after the close on Thursday, Oct 1, with consensus EPS of $0.44 on revenue of $11.33 billion.

Why it matters:A double downgrade into an earnings print is a deliberate call that the quarter will not mark the bottom. It also pushes the recovery timeline beyond the horizon many investors had been underwriting. The modest reaction suggests much of the pessimism is already in the price, which is exactly why the October 1 guidance, rather than the quarter itself, will decide the next leg for discretionary retail sentiment.

What to watch:Nike’s fiscal first-quarter report and outlook after the close on Thursday, Oct 1.

8. Wells Fargo Launches Coverage of 16 Electrical and HVAC Names With Seven Overweights; Trane Rises 3.63% and Johnson Controls 3.33% as Eaton Agrees to Buy Italy’s COL Group

The core facts:Wells Fargo analyst Stephen Tusa started coverage of 16 multi-industry, electrical and HVAC companies on Friday: seven at Overweight, eight at Equal Weight and one at Underweight. The Overweights are Trane ($536 target), Vertiv ($340), Eaton ($503), Emerson ($177), Johnson Controls ($186), Carrier ($67) and Dover ($229); Honeywell, 3M, Parker-Hannifin and Rockwell Automation were among the Equal Weights, and Otis ($77) was the lone Underweight. Of Johnson Controls, the bank cited a “record backlog, DC-led orders, self-help on margins.” Trane closed up 3.63%, Johnson Controls 3.33%, Vertiv 3.25%, Carrier 2.73% and Dover 2.12%, while Otis fell 1.11%. Separately, Bernstein upgraded 3M to Market Perform from Underperform with a $171 target, and Eaton agreed to buy COL Group, an Italian maker of medium-voltage switchgear and grid-automation equipment, from Oaktree for an enterprise value of €810 million, adding EMEA capacity for data-center and utility customers.

Why it matters:The overweight list is effectively a map of the data-center power and cooling trade, and the stocks that moved most were the ones with the most direct exposure to it. A major bank launching on the group with a clear bullish tilt adds sponsorship to Industrials at a point when the sector has lagged, down 7.07% over three months. Eaton’s deal makes the same point from the corporate side: buying European switchgear capacity is a bet that AI-driven electrical demand will outrun existing plants.

What to watch:Whether the group holds Friday’s gains through ISM Manufacturing on Oct 1; Eaton expects the COL deal to close in the first quarter of 2027.

9. SK Hynix’s US Storage Unit Solidigm Weighs a US IPO at a Valuation of Up to $150 Billion, Reuters Reports

The core facts:Solidigm, the US-based solid-state storage business of South Korea’s SK hynix, is considering a US initial public offering that could value it at up to $150 billion and raise about $15 billion, Reuters reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. Pitch meetings with banks took place this week, and a listing could come as early as next year; the process is at an early stage. Solidigm declined to comment. SK hynix itself is valued at about $975 billion.

Why it matters:A $150 billion valuation for an enterprise SSD maker is a measure of how far AI has repriced memory and storage: data-center demand for high-capacity flash has turned what was a cyclical commodity business into a growth asset. A listing of that size would be among the largest US semiconductor IPOs, larger than Arm’s roughly $54 billion debut in 2023, and would give US investors a pure-play storage vehicle alongside Micron and SanDisk. It is a sourced report rather than a company announcement, so the valuation is an aspiration, not a price.

What to watch:Micron’s fiscal fourth-quarter report after the close on Wednesday, Sept 30, the next read on AI memory and storage pricing.

10. Merck and Daiichi Sankyo Withdraw Their Accelerated-Approval Filing for Ifinatamab Deruxtecan in Small-Cell Lung Cancer After FDA Talks

The core facts:Merck and Daiichi Sankyo said after Friday’s close that they have voluntarily withdrawn the biologics license application seeking accelerated approval of ifinatamab deruxtecan (I-DXd) for previously treated extensive-stage small-cell lung cancer. Discussions with the FDA showed that data from the Phase 2 IDeate-Lung01 trial “did not satisfy accelerated approval requirements.” Any future filing will rest on the confirmatory Phase 3 IDeate-Lung02 trial. The announcement came at 4:30 p.m. ET, so the share-price reaction will come on Monday.

Why it matters:I-DXd is one of three antibody-drug conjugates at the centre of Merck’s multibillion-dollar Daiichi partnership, which the company has positioned as a growth pillar as Keytruda approaches its loss of exclusivity. Losing the accelerated route in small-cell lung cancer pushes the first US launch back by the length of the Phase 3 readout. It also signals an FDA that is holding single-arm oncology data to a stricter standard, a read-through for other ADC developers relying on accelerated approvals.

What to watch:Merck’s and Daiichi Sankyo’s share-price reaction on Monday, Sept 28, and any timeline the companies give for IDeate-Lung02 data.

11. Sixth Circuit Rules Ohio and Tennessee May Apply State Gambling Laws to Kalshi’s Sports Event Contracts, Rejecting the CFTC-Preemption Argument

The core facts:A unanimous panel of the US Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit ruled on Friday that Ohio and Tennessee may enforce their state gambling laws against Kalshi’s sports-event contracts. The court rejected Kalshi’s argument that the contracts are swaps regulated exclusively by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, writing: “We hold that Kalshi has not shown that its sports-event contracts satisfy the statutory definition of a ‘swap’ so as to fall within the scope of the CFTC’s ‘exclusive jurisdiction.'” CNBC described the decision as another legal blow to prediction-market platforms.

Why it matters:Federal preemption is the legal foundation that lets prediction markets offer sports contracts in states where betting is restricted or taxed, and an appellate court has now rejected it. If the reasoning spreads, sports event contracts would fall under state gaming regulators, removing the regulatory arbitrage that has let these platforms compete with licensed sportsbooks nationwide. That is a relative positive for incumbent sportsbook operators and a negative for the brokers and exchanges that have been building prediction-market products.

What to watch:Whether Kalshi seeks rehearing en banc or Supreme Court review, and whether other states cite the ruling in pending enforcement actions.

12. Barclays Upgrades Humana to Overweight and Lifts Its Target to $515 From $407; Shares Rise 4.63%

The core facts:Barclays analyst Andrew Mok upgraded Humana to Overweight from Equal Weight on Friday and raised his price target to $515 from $407, calling the setup “particularly compelling.” Humana closed at $397.93, up 4.63%, giving the Medicare Advantage insurer a market value of about $48 billion. Healthcare rose 0.38% on the day.

Why it matters:Humana is the most Medicare Advantage-concentrated of the large insurers, so an upgrade is in effect a call that the worst of the sector’s cost-trend and reimbursement pressure is priced in. A 29% upside target from a major bank is a meaningful shift in sponsorship for a stock that has been a laggard, and it tends to pull capital toward the managed-care group as a whole when it lands.

What to watch:Medicare Advantage star ratings and plan-year 2027 enrollment data during the annual enrollment period that opens Oct 15.

E. ECONOMY WATCH -> TOP

The week closed on a split between an economy that is still building and households losing patience with prices. Business investment is the strong leg: core capital-goods orders jumped 1.6% in August, the Kansas City Fed’s factory gauge beat forecasts, and GDPNow tracks third-quarter growth at 5.0%. Consumers are the weak one, with Michigan sentiment at 48.1 and year-ahead inflation expectations up to 4.6%, the kind of drift that could feed what Cleveland Fed President Hammack called “an inflationary mindset” and named the biggest inflation risk, though she judged expectations reasonably well anchored for now. Hot growth plus rising inflation psychology is the combination that keeps an October hike in play, and August core PCE on Wednesday, September 30 is the next test.

F. EARNINGS WATCH -> TOP

YESTERDAY AFTER THE BELL (Markets Reacted Today)

TODAY BEFORE THE BELL (Markets Already Reacted)

No major earnings before the bell from companies with >$100B market cap.

TODAY AFTER THE BELL (Markets React Tomorrow)

No major earnings after the bell from companies with >$100B market cap.

WEEK AHEAD PREVIEW:

G. WHAT’S NEXT -> TOP

UPCOMING RELEASES:

KEY QUESTIONS:

H. CHART OF THE DAY -> TOP

Market Intelligence Brief (MIB) Ver. 19.71
For professional investors only. Not investment advice.

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