CoreWeave’s beat-and-raise revived the AI-hardware trade: the Nasdaq 100 jumped 2.28% as Micron (+11.89%) and Dell (+11.75%) surged, while Microsoft, Meta and Amazon fell. Futures price a December hike as certain and lean toward a second by January, sending the dollar to its highest close since at least April 15. Brent rose 1.14% as Iran refused to export enriched material. Nvidia lagged as a Senate Republican urged Huang to go. Anthropic’s IPO book is oversubscribed at a $1.4 trillion valuation.
Tag Archives | Strait of Hormuz
MIB Daily: Markets Paid the AI Builders and Sold the Spenders as Micron Jumped 11.9%, Futures Locked In a December Hike, Iran Kept Brent Bid, and Treasuries Reopen Thursday to Deliver Their Verdict
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MIB Daily: Hot CPI Moved the Fed From Whether to How Fast, the 2-Year Jumped 18.2 bps as Nvidia Fell 5.47% on a $7.5B China Report, Tariffs Keep Goods Prices Hot and Only Oil Below $90 Offers Relief
Hot October CPI moved the Fed debate from whether to how fast: core rose 0.3% for a third month, meeting Waller’s half-point condition, while the 2-year jumped 18.2 bps and the 10-year briefly retook 5%. Logan wants at least two more hikes. Nvidia sank 5.47% on a report that Huang’s relationship aided at least $7.5B of chip shipments to Chinese firms. Anthropic set a $70-$78 IPO range valuing it at up to about $1.4T. Brent briefly broke below $90.
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MIB Daily: Stocks Priced Relief, Bonds Priced a Hike, as AMD Jumped 13.26% and Nvidia Fell 4.27% on Its CEO Probe, With December Hike Odds at 84% and Households Strained Before Tuesday’s CPI
Chips led a broad rebound: the S&P 500 rose 2.35% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 3.40% as AMD jumped 13.26% on an Oppenheimer upgrade. Nvidia fell 4.27% as its board probes whether CEO Jensen Huang was targeted by foreign intelligence. Brent slid 6.21% after Trump called new Iran strikes “highly unlikely.” Bonds balked: 2-year yields rose 5.4 bps and December hike odds climbed to about 84% before Tuesday’s CPI. Washington and Beijing extended their trade truce to January 10, 2027.
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MIB Weekly: The Election Ended AI’s Immunity, Chips Fell 12% on Data-Center Curb Fears, Brent Dropped 12.78% and Oracle’s $20B Raise Showed the Bill Rising, Can Tuesday’s CPI Stop a December Hike?
Tuesday’s Democratic sweep of Congress became the AI trade’s newest risk: a 3.03% Dow relief rally gave way to Thursday’s 4.36% S&P 500 drop as chip stocks sank 12.25% on fears of curbs on the data-center build-out. Dell (-22.57%) and Micron (-22.01%) led the week’s losers despite strong AMD results. Brent fell 12.78% on Iran diplomacy, yet 165,000 payrolls lifted the odds of another Fed hike to 77%. The Nasdaq 100 lost 4.91%.
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MIB Daily: Short-Covering Chip Bounce Lifts AMD 11% as 165,000 Jobs Push December Hike Odds to 78%, Microsoft Cools on Oracle Compute and Brent Has Its Biggest Weekly Drop Since 2020, Leaving AI Hardware Exposed to CPI
Chips led a narrow rebound from Thursday’s AI rout: AMD jumped 11.04% and the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.35%; the Dow fell 0.46%. October payrolls rose 165,000, far above forecasts, lifting CME December hike odds to 78% as 2-year yields rose 4.8 bps. Fed’s Daly expects policy will have to tighten further. Brent headed for its largest weekly drop since 2020 on US-Iran talks. Microsoft is reportedly winding down Oracle compute rentals. Tesla (+4.23%) will wind down Cybertruck output for Cybercab.
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MIB Daily: The Democratic Sweep Became a Tax on the AI Trade, Micron and AMD Sank 17% and the VIX Jumped 69%, While Traders Cut Hike Odds to 64% as Fed Hawks Held Firm and Treasuries Rallied
AI stocks crashed on fears a Democratic Congress will slow the data-center buildout: the S&P 500 fell 4.36% and the Nasdaq 100 fell 6.36%, the worst day since April 2025. Micron (-17.46%) and AMD (-17.26%) led the Philadelphia Semiconductor index’s 12.25% plunge. The VIX jumped 69% to 28.15; the 2-year yield fell 11.7 bps. Fed hawks held their tightening line even as Polymarket odds of another 2026 hike fell to 64%. Brent rose 4.65% on fresh Hormuz tanker attacks.
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MIB Daily: AI Starts Selling Stock to Fund Itself as Oracle Raises $20B and Marvell Pays in Paper, While a 7% Oil Plunge on Iran Talk Fails to Cool 76% December Hike Odds and Airlines Rally
Crude plunged 7.44% to $96.37 after Trump said there is “no rush” to resume fighting Iran. Oracle (ORCL) fell 8.76% on a $20 billion stock-and-bond raise, and Marvell (MRVL) sank 12.72% on its $115 billion all-stock Lumentum deal. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.39%, ending 10.4% below its October 6 close, while the Dow rose 0.41%. ISM manufacturing beat at 55.5 and GDPNow rose to 3.7%, keeping December hike odds at 76%. Anthropic’s IPO filing showed $895 billion of purchase commitments.
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MIB Weekly: The AI Bill Came Due as Intel Fell 28.58% and Alphabet 12.64%, Healthcare and Treasuries Won While Gold Failed as a Haven, Can a Split Fed Still Hike in December?
Intel’s 28.58% one-day collapse and Alphabet’s worst session since listing ended a week that began with an AI rally, leaving the Nasdaq 100 down 1.98% while the Russell 2000 gained 1.29%. Meta’s $37.5 billion equity sale, Microsoft’s $25 billion-plus bond deal and Amazon’s $42.4 billion free-cash outflow made AI funding the market’s central question. The Fed held with two dissents for a hike, yet the 10-year yield fell 7.1 bps.
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MIB Daily: Intel’s 28.58% Plunge Reprices AI Leaders as Three Fed Presidents Push Hikes and Gold Sinks 3.63%, Leaving Treasuries the Only Hedge, With a December Hike Near 76% Awaiting Payrolls
Intel (INTC) plunged 28.58%, dragging AMD down 10.88% and leaving the Nasdaq 100 down 3.46% and 9.1% below its October 6 close. Three Fed presidents argued for more hikes, yet the 10-year yield fell 6.1 bps. Limpet mines hit a Hormuz tanker as Brent rose 1.39% to $112.34. Gold sank 3.63% and silver fell 6.20%, removing a haven. Binance’s $6.3 billion theft drew CFTC fire, and Bitcoin fell 2.50%. Global Payments jumped 12.97% on buyout talk.
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MIB Daily: Free Cash Flow Is the New AI Scorecard and Alphabet Failed It, Erasing $500 Billion as Healthcare and Real Estate Led, the 10-Year Fell Below 5% on a 3.4% GDP Beat and Crude Held Above $100 on Iran Risk
Alphabet’s worst day since its 2004 listing (-12.64%) on negative free cash flow erased roughly $500 billion and dragged the Nasdaq 100 down 1.38%, yet four in five S&P 500 stocks rose. Q3 GDP beat at 3.4% and PCE inflation matched at 3.6%; the 10-year fell 11.7 bps to 4.934%. Microsoft launched a $25 billion-plus bond sale. DoorDash (+5.61%) agreed to buy Instacart for $17 billion. CENTCOM briefed Trump on Iran military options; crude ended flat above $100.
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MIB Weekly: The War Hit Prices, Not Nerves, as Brent Ran 6.3% to $116 and Gold Fell 4%, AI’s Bill Came Due in Credit Markets, Small Caps Rose 2% and Bonds Rallied Below 5% Into a Fed That Must Choose
Houthi strikes on Saudi airports and Aramco sites pushed Brent up 6.3% to $116.62, its highest settle since April. Thursday’s AI-financing scare, set off by Lam Research’s supply-capped guidance (-11.76%) and Meta’s higher spending floor (-6.98%), handed the Nasdaq 100 its worst day since June. Treasuries took the haven bid, the 10-year closing the week below 5% as price pressure built into Wednesday’s Fed decision. CrowdStrike (+13.3%) and Palo Alto (+11.3%) led the gainers.
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MIB Daily: The War Shows Up in Prices, Not Panic, as Brent Hits $116.62 and Selling Prices Run Hottest Since 2022, Energy Leads While Staples and Gold Fall Ahead of Wednesday’s Fed Decision
Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia lifted Brent 3.05% to $116.62, its third straight weekly gain, as UN Ambassador Waltz warned the Iran war could last another year. The Dow fell 1.23% while the Nasdaq 100 finished flat. Flash PMI selling prices rose at the sharpest rate since August 2022 and Michigan year-ahead inflation expectations hit 4.7%, ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision. CrowdStrike jumped 8.25%, gold slid 1.25%, and Instacart rose about 9% on reported sale talks with Uber and DoorDash.
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MIB Daily: Nvidia Says AI Is Short of Factories, Not Buyers, as Chipmakers Lead a Narrow Rally and Gulf Risk Reaches Saudi Oil Fields, Leaving the Fed to Weigh $110 Brent Against Cooling Housing
A New Mexico judge ordered Meta to pay $25 billion plus 15% annual interest; Meta will appeal. Nvidia unveiled capacity deals with six suppliers at GTC Berlin as chipmakers lifted the Nasdaq 100 1.13% on a narrow tape where six of 11 sectors fell. Washington ordered non-emergency staff out of Saudi Arabia as Houthi attacks escalate. The EIA crude draw nearly quadrupled forecasts. Mortgage applications fell 5.3% despite lower rates. CrowdStrike jumped 5.26% as leaked PHP flaws lifted cybersecurity stocks.
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MIB Weekly: The AI Trade Hit Its Credit Limit, Nasdaq 100 -5.49% as CoreWeave Debt Broke 15%, Treasuries Rallied Through Hot CPI, Staples and $100 Oil Led, Can Meta’s Capex Stop the Unwind?
An AI-financing scare split the market this week: CoreWeave’s bonds topped a 15% yield, the chip index fell eight straight sessions and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 5.49% while the Dow rose 0.67%. Dell (-22.92%) led the losers as money rotated into Walmart, Coca-Cola and Eli Lilly. Gulf attacks sent WTI up 11.08% to $101.64, and hot CPI and PPI did not stop the 10-year yield falling 15.4 bps.
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MIB Daily: The Hottest PPI Since 2022 Sent the 10-Year Down 10 bps, Small Caps Rallied as Chips Neared a $2 Trillion Rout, and Diesel Keeps Inflation Hot Into Warsh’s Last Word
Producer prices jumped 1.3% in September, the hottest monthly print since March 2022, yet the 10-year yield fell 10.2 bps to 5.084%. The Dow gained 1.08% to retake 52,000 as the Russell 2000 rose 1.38%, while chips extended a rout nearing $2 trillion since last week — DELL -6.80%. CoreWeave’s credit gauge hit record default odds before Nvidia’s Huang defended it. Retail sales beat, but the control group rose just 0.1%. WTI jumped 2.63% on an 8.6M-barrel crude draw.
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MIB Daily: The AI Trade Failed a Credit Test as CoreWeave Bonds Topped 15%, Hot CPI Lifted Hike Odds to 47% Ahead of PPI, Long Bonds Bet on Slower Growth, and Healthcare, Staples and Energy Took the Lead
Hot September CPI (3.7% vs 3.6% expected, core 2.6%) roughly doubled October rate-hike odds to about 47%, and the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.02%. AI infrastructure cracked: CoreWeave’s bonds topped a 15% yield and its stock sank 15.46%, while Oracle dropped 8.83%. Barclays cut Dell to Equal Weight and it slid 11.27%. Iran admitted new tactics against Hormuz shipping; WTI rose 1.09% to $95.17, its highest close since September 24. Healthcare and staples rallied; RBC swapped tech for health care.
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MIB Daily: A China DRAM Scare Sank Memory Stocks as Meta Rallied on AI It Can Sell, a Riyadh Strike Lifted Brent to $106, and Hammack Wants More Restriction Before Wednesday’s CPI
China’s CXMT reported next-generation DRAM progress and memory stocks slid: Sandisk fell 5.97% and Micron 3.88% as the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.71% while the Dow gained 0.38%. A deadly missile strike on Riyadh’s airport lifted Brent 1.35% to $106.13. Cleveland Fed’s Hammack says more restriction is needed. Meta jumped 3.38% on new Muse AI models. JPMorgan and Goldman underwrote just $1.3 billion of a $5 billion AI cloud loan. September CPI lands Wednesday, expected at 3.7% year over year.
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MIB Weekly: Markets Paid for AI’s Users, Not Its Builders, as OpenAI Doubts Sank Chips and Staples Led, Bonds Shrugged Off Fed Hike Talk and Brent Held $104, Leaving Wednesday’s CPI to Set the Date
An OpenAI revenue scare split the AI trade: the FT’s ~$50 billion run-rate sank chipmakers and Bloomberg’s $70 billion target revived only software, leaving Intel -12.26% and Palantir +10.75% on the week. The S&P 500 still gained 1.15% after its first close above 7,800, carried by staples, utilities and energy. The 10-year hit a 24-year closing high of 5.315% before auctions drew buyers and the Fed minutes named AI borrowing as a rival for capital.
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MIB Daily: AI Is Now Competing With Treasuries for Money, as SpaceX’s $40B Debt Plan and a Split Fed Lift the 10-Year to a 24-Year High and Small Caps Pay Ahead of Thursday’s 30-Year Auction
Fed minutes show most officials expect another hike by year-end and record market concern that AI borrowing is lifting term premiums. The 10-year yield touched a 24-year intraday high of 5.364% before a strong $39B auction pulled it back. IEA members agreed to speed up emergency oil releases, and WTI settled down $1.16 despite a crude draw. Deere fell 3.8% on a new FTC-USDA farm-equipment inquiry. Platinum dropped 4.1% as the dollar posted its highest close in 122 sessions.
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MIB Weekly: Hike Odds Collapsed and Yields Rose Anyway, a 5.34% 10-Year Sank Gold and Banks Despite Hormuz Strikes, as Chip Equipment Led and Anthropic’s $2T IPO Tested Who Funds AI
A global long-bond rout drove the week: the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% Thursday, its highest since 2002, and finished 10.9 bps higher even as soft payrolls and a cooler PCE cut October Fed-hike odds to about 23%. Chip equipment carried the Nasdaq 100 to a record (AMAT +11.35%, LRCX +10.24%, KLAC +10.09%) while the S&P 500 and Dow fell. Gold lost 3.48% despite repeated Hormuz ship strikes.
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