AI-infrastructure conviction defined the week: SK Hynix’s record $26.5B Nasdaq debut surged 14%, Meta rallied roughly 15% on its “Meta Compute” cloud pivot, and Broadcom extended a $30B+ Apple chip deal — even as a genuine US-Iran ceasefire collapse sent oil spiking as much as 5.9% and nine of eleven S&P sectors red mid-week. The Fed turned meaningfully more hawkish, with 2026 rate-hike odds jumping to 59% after Williams named AI-driven demand his top inflation risk. The S&P 500 closed +1.24%; the Dow finished red.
Tag Archives | SpaceX
MIB Weekly: SK Hynix and Meta Powered Through Iran and a Hawkish Fed, But Software Lagged — SpaceX’s Junk Spreads Say the AI Trade’s Real Test Is Still Ahead
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MIB Daily: SK Hynix +14% AI Frenzy Meets SpaceX’s Junk-Rated Credit Hangover — Does Tuesday’s CPI Break Warsh’s Hawkish Bet?
SK Hynix’s record $26.5B Nasdaq debut popped 14% and Meta’s best week since 2024 powered stocks higher, though small-caps and high-multiple software names (PANW, DELL, MRVL) slid on rate jitters. Fed Chair Warsh’s first Monetary Policy Report struck a hawkish note ahead of Tuesday’s CPI and his House/Senate testimony next week — with FOMC minutes showing 9 of 18 officials eyeing a hike. SpaceX bonds trade like junk. Trade deficit widened to $77.6B. Nvidia rose 4% on eased UAE chip curbs.
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MIB Daily: Chips Crack and Oil Spikes on Hormuz Attacks — A Hawkish-Dovish Fed Split Meets Hot Inflation Data as Capital Rotates Into Energy and Healthcare
Chip stocks cratered despite Samsung’s blowout profit — Intel -9.66%, Nasdaq 100 -1.77% — as Reuters reported DeepSeek is building its own AI chip. NY Fed inflation expectations hit 3.7%, highest since 2023, lifting the 10-year 7bps and exposing a Hammack-hawkish, Williams-dovish Fed split before the July 28-29 FOMC. Oil spiked 5.3% after Iran struck tankers near Hormuz and Washington revoked Tehran’s export license. Healthcare’s rotation rally extended; Rivian sank 18% on a $1.5B raise, SpaceX slid 6.34% in its Nasdaq-100 debut.
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MIB Daily: SCOTUS 5-4 and Iran Ease Spark Rally; Bond Non-Confirmation Warns — Overweight Semis, Fade Duration Into 75K NFP Thursday
The Supreme Court preserved Fed independence 5-4 (Lisa Cook stays) while overturning Humphrey’s Executor 6-3, sending the Nasdaq 100 to a 2.26% gain. NVIDIA’s $3.2B Corning AI deal drove GLW +15.7% and SOXX +3.76% as Alphabet debuted on the Dow, crossing 52,000. Iran’s ‘stand down’ unwound gold -1.60% but Doha talks Tuesday face structural friction. Pantheon projects Thursday’s NFP at 75K vs 172K in May — stagflation signal crystallizing. Strategy plans to sell $1.25B in Bitcoin, flipping BTC supply negative.
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MIB Daily: GOOG -5.1% as AI Architects Defect to Rivals, MU +6.8% Confirms Hardware Wins; Oil Falls to $74 but Yields Rise, PCE Thursday Decides
Alphabet fell 5.1% — worst day in years — after its transformer co-inventor defected to OpenAI and AlphaFold’s Nobel laureate moved to Anthropic, while Alphabet raised $84.75B for the AI compute those leaders built. WTI hit an eight-month low at $74.09 on US Treasury authorization of Iranian oil exports, yet 10-year yields rose 6 bps — bond markets declining to confirm oil disinflation as a Fed catalyst. Micron surged 6.8% on an Anthropic co-design deal; Russell 2000 crossed 3,000 for the first time.
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MIB Weekly: WTI -9% (Iran MoU), 2Y +9 bps (Warsh Hike Signal), SOX Record (Apple-Intel) — Which Inflation Arc Wins H2?
WTI crude fell 9% as the US and Iran confirmed a 60-day Hormuz ceasefire, deflating the energy inflation premium that locked the Fed out of cuts — but Warsh’s inaugural FOMC promptly reclaimed that space: 9 of 18 members projected a 2026 hike, pushing 2Y yields to a 14-month high. Against both forces, the SOX hit a record as Trump’s Apple–Intel foundry deal capped a week where AI hardware proved rate-cycle-agnostic.
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MIB Daily: Semiconductors Declared Most Crowded in History, Then Imploded — Warsh’s Dot-Plot Could Do the Same to Rotation
BofA declared semiconductors the most crowded trade in history — MRVL -9.78%, AMD -7.30%, INTC -8.45% — while the Dow hit its 17th record on Financials and Industrials rotation. Kevin Warsh opens his inaugural FOMC with a rate hold expected but a hawkish dot-plot likely; May housing starts collapsed -15.4% to 1.177M (weakest since 2020) and import prices surged to 6.7% YoY. WTI -5.09% on Iran peace deal repricing. SpaceX acquired Cursor for $60B, crossing a $2.8T valuation to overtake Amazon.
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MIB Daily: Iran’s oil move does what eight months of hawkishness couldn’t — WTI −4.2% to $81 reopens the easing path, PHLX Semi +7.9% confirms AI broadening, and Warsh’s dot-plot Wednesday is the verdict
US-Iran peace deal formalizes Hormuz reopening — WTI −4.2% to $81 unlocks the rate-path debate ahead of Wednesday’s Warsh FOMC. Computex 2026: PHLX Semi +7.9%, MU +11%, WDC +16%; HBM4 sold out through year-end. SPCX +19% Day 2 to $192; $2.5T market cap passes Apple. Fox acquires Roku for $22B; FOXA −16%. Empire State June 5.7 vs. 14.0 exp. — tariff front-running demand reversal confirmed. Housing 26th consecutive sub-50; 35% of builders cutting prices; Starts data due Tuesday.
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MIB Weekly: Dow Cracked 50,000 and a $2.1T IPO Debuted in the Same Week — Long Semis, Short AI Cash-Burn; Iran Holds the Key to Warsh’s June 17 FOMC
Iran’s 14-point Hormuz draft MoU sent WTI from $91.78 to $84.24 by Friday, potentially deflating the energy surge that drove May CPI to a three-year high (4.2%) and locked out Fed cuts heading into Warsh’s June 17 inaugural FOMC — now with 47% hike odds. SpaceX debuted as the largest IPO in US history ($75B raised, +19.3%), while Intel’s Google foundry win and JPMorgan’s KLAC upgrade drove the semiconductor equipment complex +20–32% on the week.
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MIB Daily: WTI -4% on Iran’s Hormuz MoU, SPCX +19.3% — Does the Deal Close Before Warsh’s Dot-Plot Resets Duration?
Iran’s Hormuz draft deal sent WTI -4% to $84, staging the broadest equity recovery since last week’s CPI shock — S&P +0.50%, 10 of 11 sectors green. SpaceX (SPCX) debuted +19.3% at $161, raising $75B at a $2.1T valuation. The 2-year hit 4.14% — 40 bps above the Fed ceiling — as markets price 47% hike odds ahead of Warsh’s inaugural FOMC. Michigan sentiment beat at 48.9; 5-year inflation expectations dropped 50 bps to 3.4%, giving Warsh cover to hold.
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MIB Daily: Iran deal may be the only kill-shot for 6.5% PPI — WTI -4.43%, SOX +8%, SpaceX SPCX Friday; but two ceasefires failed, and Warsh’s June 16 FOMC resets energy/semis/duration
Iran peace deal erases Wednesday’s stagflation trade — Trump cancels strikes, announces imminent signing; Dow +1.86%, WTI -4.43%, VIX -12%. Semiconductors surge: KLAC +12.86%, SNDK +14.46%, LRCX +12.53% as JP Morgan calls KLAC a triple-earner by 2030. SpaceX prices at $135/share, raises $75B, debuts Friday as SPCX. PPI hits 6.5% YoY while claims rise to 229K — Fed trapped entering next week’s Warsh FOMC. US-China deal declared “done,” rare earths resume, but Beijing calls it only a framework.
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MIB Daily: Stagflation Trap Snaps Shut — CPI 4.2%, WTI Hits $91 on Iran, SMCI -17%; Long Energy/Defensives, June 17 FOMC the Test
May CPI hit 4.2% YoY — a three-year high — making December a near-certain hike and pushing Goldman’s odds to 20%. US-Iran ceasefire collapsed: US struck Iranian air defenses, Iran retaliated, Trump signaled civilian-infrastructure strikes. WTI +4.06% to $91.78 on a seventh straight EIA draw of -7.2M bbl, triple estimates. SMCI -17% on a $7B raise dragged QCOM -6.92%, AVGO -5.12% as SpaceX’s $75B IPO extracts AI-trade liquidity. S&P -1.62%, Dow cracked 50,000; only Consumer Defensives and Energy finished green.
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MIB Daily: This Isn’t a Dip — MRVL -7.6%, Nasdaq -1.12%, 4.2% CPI Due Wednesday, Hormuz Shut: Defensives Over Tech Through June 17
AI mega-caps remain under distribution as SpaceX’s $75B IPO ($150B+ in orders) drains liquidity — MRVL -7.6%, AAPL -3.7%, Nasdaq -1.12%. Iran-Israel ceasefire cuts WTI -3% to $88.54 — but Hormuz stays blocked and Trump vowed a US response to the Apache downing. NFIB price plans hit 34% (4-year high); Wednesday’s CPI consensus is 4.2% YoY (3-year high) — make-or-break for Warsh’s June 17 FOMC debut. GSK bids $10.6B (40% premium) for Nuvalent’s oncology pipeline; 9 of 11 sectors advanced on defensive rotation.
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MIB Weekly: NFP 172K Rate-Shocked the AI Bull Thesis — 53% Hike Odds, $1.77T SpaceX Debuts June 12, and Financials Outperform Semis
May NFP 172K — double consensus — pushed Fed hike odds above 50% for the first time in 2026, snapping the S&P’s nine-week winning streak on its worst day since October as Computex’s AI semiconductor euphoria reversed simultaneously. The Iran arc ran all five sessions — WTI peaking at $96 on US strikes against Qeshm Island before retreating to $90.24 — keeping PCE elevated entering Warsh’s June 16-17 inaugural FOMC, where the rate-regime inflection now enters blackout locked in.
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MIB Daily: NFP 172K Locks Hike Odds at 50%+ Into Fed Blackout — AI Giants Turn to Equity Dilution as Tech Sector Breaks
May NFP 172,000 — double the 85,000 consensus — snapped the S&P’s nine-week winning streak (-2.64%) and pushed Fed hike odds above 50% for the first time in 2026; FOMC blackout begins Saturday. AI semis cratered 11–17% (MRVL -16.74%, MU -13.25%) as Computex euphoria reversed, wiping $1T+. Meta reportedly weighing tens of billions in equity dilution for AI capex; META -5.5%. SpaceX priced $75B IPO at $1.77T valuation, Nasdaq debut June 12. Jun 10 CPI is the last print before Warsh’s June 17 debut.
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MIB Daily: AVGO -12.6% Exposes AI Hardware’s Pricing Trap — Dow ATH Hides Labor Stagflation Heading Into Friday’s NFP
AVGO −12.6% after AI chip guidance ($16B Q3) missed by $1.2B; SOX −2.8%, MU −7.74%. UNH +5.7% on dual BofA/MS upgrades lifted Healthcare +3.06% to drive the Dow to an ATH at 51,562. Ceasefire news cut WTI $3 to $93. Jobless claims 225K (highest since February) confirmed labor softening; Challenger’s 97K May cuts — 40% AI-driven — are a record. IMF extended the US inflation timeline to end-2027 ahead of Warsh’s first FOMC; Friday NFP consensus: 85K.
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MIB Daily: Iran snaps the nine-session streak with WTI at $96 — Logan raises hike odds to 41%, SOXX surges vs. AI software, and $75B SpaceX supply hits June 12. Will NFP finish the job Friday?
US strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island and IRGC retaliation on Kuwait bases ended the S&P 500’s nine-session streak; WTI hit $96. Fed’s Logan called policy “a bit loose” pre-blackout, pushing hike odds to 41%; ADP 122K and dual ISM above 54 make Friday NFP the pivot. SpaceX priced the largest US IPO in history ($1.75T, $75B raise, June 12 Nasdaq); Anthropic filed at $1T the same day. Trump proposed 10–12.5% tariffs on 60 partners including Canada, Mexico, and the EU.
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MIB Weekly: AI Infrastructure Goes Institutional ($51B Backlog, Contracts Signed) — Market Priced Iran Deal and No Hike; Neither Is Confirmed
Dell’s AI server blowout (+32.8%, $51.3B backlog) drove the Dow above 51,000 for the first time, confirming the AI infrastructure super-cycle as contracted structural demand. Iran’s Hormuz ceasefire sent WTI down 9% for the week — its largest monthly crude loss in six years — with Trump’s final determination still unsigned at Friday’s close. Q1 GDP 1.6%, corporate profits ‑0.4% QoQ, PCE 3.8%, and Bowman’s hawkish Fed pivot escalated June FOMC hike risk from noise to genuine debate.
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MIB Daily: MU +19% / Nasdaq 30K / IRGC Airstrikes — Semiconductors Win, Energy Fades, PCE Thursday Decides
MU surged +19% after UBS tripled its price target to $1,625, lifting Nasdaq past 30,000 and S&P 500 to records. Overnight US airstrikes on IRGC targets imperiled the ceasefire, sending Brent near $100 and gasoline to $4.56/gal — a four-year high. Energy equities (CVX -3.5%, XOM -3.3%) fell despite the crude surge as markets priced Iranian supply re-entry. SpaceX received FTSE Russell fast-entry eligibility for its $1.75T IPO. Consumer Confidence slipped as two-thirds of consumers cut spending on inflation.
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MIB: Iran Off-Ramp Sparks Risk-On Rally While SpaceX Goes Public and the Energy Trade Unwinds
Iran peace talk sends S&P +0.72%, WTI below $100 for first time in weeks. SpaceX files confidential IPO at $1.75T valuation — could be largest in history. Intel reclaims Irish fab from Apollo for $14.2B; INTC +8.79%, chip sector surges. Lilly’s Foundayo becomes first oral GLP-1 weight-loss pill (LLY +3.78%). IEA warns April oil supply crisis twice as bad as March. Trump floats NATO exit; XOM -5.23%, CVX -4.59%.
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