The September FOMC was repriced three times in five sessions and ended where it started: Barr said hike, Waller said hold, and Friday’s 162,000-payroll blowout against a 56,000 consensus flipped implied odds back to 58-60%. Underneath it, five days of US-Iran exchanges put WTI up 9.22% and took retail diesel to an all-time record $5.850, six days before the CPI on which Waller staked his vote. Technology split in half: Sandisk +17.17% against Palo Alto -10.32%.
Tag Archives | FOMC
MIB Weekly: The S&P Went Nowhere and Everything Under It Moved, WTI +9.22% With Energy Equities Not Following, SNDK +17.17% vs PANW -10.32%, FICO -16.68% by Directive, September Repriced Three Times, Still a Coin Flip
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MIB Daily: Payrolls 162K Against 56K Bought a September Hike, the President Demanded Cuts Anyway, and Memory Rallied Regardless as Record $5.850 Diesel Leaves One CPI Print Deciding the Meeting
August payrolls tripled expectations at 162,000 and flipped September back to a coin-flip hike — implied odds 58-60%. The selloff was narrow: Netflix -5.35%, Palantir -4.49%, while memory ran hard (Sandisk +11.90%, Micron +6.10%). Tesla -5.92% as NHTSA opened an audit query into how it self-certified the Cybercab. FICO -16.68% after FHFA opened VantageScore to every GSE lender. Retail diesel set a record $5.850 a gallon, +57.6% year-on-year. Novartis’s Lp(a) drug failed after the close; Amgen and Ionis fell harder.
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MIB Daily: Waller Cut September Hike Odds From 63.2% to Roughly 50% While ISM Prices Paid Hit 72.6, Gold and Bitcoin Rallied With Equities on One Trade, Industrials Led Into a Tariff Date They Do Not Price
Waller put a September hold on the table and hike odds collapsed from 63% to roughly 50% — the S&P jumped 1.06%, the VIX 5.86%. ISM services beat at 55.4 with prices paid at 72.6, and yields fell anyway. NVIDIA confirmed Hugging Face at $12.93 billion. Iran struck Gulf states a second night; WTI hit six-week highs while Energy finished the only red sector. Canadian retaliation lands September 8. Bitcoin added 5.06% and Palantir surged 7.71% on a PwC alliance.
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MIB Weekly: The S&P Rose 0.49% and Told You Nothing, Warsh Sent the 2Y Up 12.2bp and Hike Odds to 68%, Chicago PMI Hit 47.1, Gold and Semicap Took the Hit, Marvell Paid 10.28% for 90bp of Margin
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole keynote to say the central bank has “more work to do” on inflation, and the two-year Treasury yield ended the week 12.2 basis points higher at 4.354% — September is now a live hike meeting, with Polymarket’s 2026 hike contract up twelve points to 68%. The damage landed on gold (−3.50%) and the Russell 2000 (−1.51%), not the S&P 500 (+0.49%). Friday’s rate move then took semiconductor equipment down 4–5%.
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MIB Weekly: Treasury’s Backstop Lasted Twenty-Four Hours, Chips Fell 5.5% Twice With 30 of 30 Down, a Tariff Pause Was Never Published, and Gold and Bitcoin Took What Semis Lost
Treasury doubled its long-bond buybacks on Wednesday and the market unwound the entire move by Thursday’s close, leaving the S&P 500 down 1.43% and both yields higher on the week. The chip complex fell roughly 5.5% twice in three sessions, Intel -12.13%, while Merck added 12.30% on the first positive Phase 3 for an individualised cancer vaccine, making Healthcare the week’s second-best sector. Bitcoin closed +23.18%, gold +5.44%, and Friday’s flash PMI hit a 52-month high.
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MIB Daily: The Front End Didn’t Blink, WTI +3.23% and the 30-Year at 5.31% Lifted Energy While Communication Services Bled, Nvidia’s $105B Ohio Bet, Meta’s $1.4T Trial, Wednesday’s Auction the Test
The US-Iran framework expired with no extension and Trump threatened to bomb Oman — WTI +3.23% to $84.10, Energy led. The 30-year yield hit 5.31%, highest since 2007, while the 2-year barely moved. Nvidia guaranteed up to $105B for one OpenAI campus in Ohio. Meta’s youth-harms trial opened with $1.4T on the table; META -3.54%. Canada has 36 hours before a 50% tariff. Anthropic posted $11.5B Q2 revenue and its first operating profit.
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MIB Weekly: $720-745B Settled the Capex Question and Paid the Suppliers — But Memory Turned Into a Tax, the Curve Priced Out the Cut, and Transports Fell Five for Five
Wednesday’s 9-3 FOMC hold — three members dissenting for a hike, the first such split since 2016 — knocked 2.18% off the Dow in its worst session since April 2025. Then Microsoft (+21.75% on the week) and Amazon (+17.00%) answered July’s AI-capex scare with $720-745 billion of committed 2026 spending, and the S&P closed up 1.05%. Underneath, the Dow Transports fell all five sessions, Q2 growth undershot at 1.5% and Apple lost 7.35% on memory costs.
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MIB Daily: Amazon’s 15.32% Surge Fuels a $720B Capex Bet — But 4.716% Yields and Falling Real Wages Say Own the Suppliers, Not the Rally
Amazon exploded 15.32% on a 37% AWS quarter; Apple sank 7.35% on tariff-driven chip costs. The four hyperscalers now commit $720-745B to 2026 capex, up 77% from last year. Yet the S&P’s 0.70% gain hid eight red sectors, a falling Russell 2000 and Technology down 0.49%. The 10-year closed at 4.716%, highest since January 2025, as Barkin urged reversing 2025’s cuts. Brent capped a 23% July after Iran halted Hormuz traffic. Warsh may halve the FOMC calendar to four meetings.
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MIB Daily: China Cracks the Chip Chokepoint, Semis Sink 20% — Equal-Weight S&P Hits a Record as a De-Hedged Market Rotates Into Value Ahead of the Fed
China cracked the last chip chokepoint — domestic lithography in mass production — and the semiconductor index fell a fourth straight day, now 20% off its high. Yet the equal-weight S&P 500 closed at a record: rotation, not retreat. Oil broke below $80 on a Gulf-backed Hormuz plan. Consumer confidence missed a third month; hiring slowed a fifth week. J&J settled talc for $5.5B and closed at a record. Apple touched $5 trillion, then let it go — Fed decides tomorrow.
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MIB Weekly: Intel Beat by 100% and Fell 7.89% as Capital Intensity Repriced — Brent Over $100, a Tariff Floor on 99.4% of Imports, Hike Odds at 72%, and Breadth Still Green
Brent topped $100 for the first time in two months and closed the week up 11.39% after Houthi missiles struck two Saudi tankers. The larger repricing was in AI: Alphabet (-7.13%), Tesla (-14.52%) and Intel (-7.89% despite its best growth in fifteen years) were all punished for capital spending, while Apple (+3.53%) and IBM (+3.65%) were bid for having none. Polymarket’s 2026 hike odds jumped 21 points to 72% heading into Wednesday’s FOMC.
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MIB Daily: Intel Fell 7.89% on a Blowout Quarter as Semis Shed 4.4% and Apple Rose 3.53% — a 12.5% Tariff Floor Now Covers 99.4% of Imports, and a Split FOMC Meets Wednesday
Section 301 forced-labor tariffs of 10-12.5% hit 60 economies covering 99.4% of US imports — a durable levy replacing the struck-down IEEPA regime. An AI capex scare gutted chips: Intel -7.89% after a blowout quarter, SanDisk -10.79%, Micron -6.99%. Apple +3.53% and IBM +3.65% won the rotation. Crude reversed hard, Brent -2.50% to $98, on a China-brokered Iran overture. July PMI hit an eight-month high of 53.6. A third of the rates market now prices a Wednesday hike.
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MIB Daily: MU +12%, SNDK +14% Rally as Fed Zeroes Out 2026 Cuts — Can AI Survive a Hawkish FOMC and Friday’s Tariff Deadline?
Memory chips ignite a broad market rally — Micron +12%, SanDisk +14% — pushing the Nasdaq 1.93% higher on 9-of-11 green sectors. But the backdrop turned hostile: Fed officials’ hawkish pre-blackout chorus erased 2026 rate-cut odds to zero and priced in 47% hike odds ahead of next week’s FOMC. Oil jumped to a five-week high on a tanker strike near the Strait of Hormuz. Trump also slapped 50% tariffs on Canada, with a global tariff overhaul looming as Friday’s stopgap expires.
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MIB Daily: SK Hynix +14% AI Frenzy Meets SpaceX’s Junk-Rated Credit Hangover — Does Tuesday’s CPI Break Warsh’s Hawkish Bet?
SK Hynix’s record $26.5B Nasdaq debut popped 14% and Meta’s best week since 2024 powered stocks higher, though small-caps and high-multiple software names (PANW, DELL, MRVL) slid on rate jitters. Fed Chair Warsh’s first Monetary Policy Report struck a hawkish note ahead of Tuesday’s CPI and his House/Senate testimony next week — with FOMC minutes showing 9 of 18 officials eyeing a hike. SpaceX bonds trade like junk. Trade deficit widened to $77.6B. Nvidia rose 4% on eased UAE chip curbs.
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MIB Daily: Oil +6%, Gold Falls — AI Chips Buck a 577-Point Dow Drop as a Split Fed Eyes July 28
Iran’s ceasefire collapsed as the U.S. struck 80+ targets and Treasury revoked Tehran’s oil waiver, sending WTI up 5.9% and Brent up 6.9%. The Dow sank 577 points (-1.1%) as nine of eleven sectors fell. Hawkish FOMC minutes showed nine of eighteen officials still eyeing a hike on AI-capex and oil-driven inflation risk. AI chips bucked the selloff — Broadcom’s $30B Apple deal, Nvidia’s China reports, and Arista +8.8%. Gold fell 1.7% despite the risk-off tape. May consumer credit unexpectedly contracted.
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MIB Daily: Chips Crack and Oil Spikes on Hormuz Attacks — A Hawkish-Dovish Fed Split Meets Hot Inflation Data as Capital Rotates Into Energy and Healthcare
Chip stocks cratered despite Samsung’s blowout profit — Intel -9.66%, Nasdaq 100 -1.77% — as Reuters reported DeepSeek is building its own AI chip. NY Fed inflation expectations hit 3.7%, highest since 2023, lifting the 10-year 7bps and exposing a Hammack-hawkish, Williams-dovish Fed split before the July 28-29 FOMC. Oil spiked 5.3% after Iran struck tankers near Hormuz and Washington revoked Tehran’s export license. Healthcare’s rotation rally extended; Rivian sank 18% on a $1.5B raise, SpaceX slid 6.34% in its Nasdaq-100 debut.
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MIB Daily: SOX +3% and AMD +6.61% Confirm a Broadening AI Rally — But Can Cyclical Rotation Survive a Fed Still Split on Rate Cuts?
Broadcom’s decade-long Apple chip deal ignites a broad semiconductor rebound, driving the S&P (+0.72%) and Dow to record highs while AMD (+6.61%) and Arista (+8.31%) ride AI-infrastructure demand. June’s ISM Services report complicates the rate-cut story: hiring jumped even as growth cooled, muddying the Fed’s path into month-end’s FOMC. Tesla (+6.69%) rebounds on its first Miami robotaxi trading day. Vertex snaps up Crinetics for $10B in a biotech bet, and SK Hynix confirms a record $28B Nasdaq listing, pricing Thursday.
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MIB Daily: META +8.85% threatens the chip trade from within (SOX -7%) — short semis, own Financials as Thursday’s NFP decides the stagflation exit
META +8.85% on AI cloud reports; global semi selloff (KLAC -11.8%, MU -10.57%, SOX -7%) split Q3’s opening session. Atlanta Fed cut GDPNow to 1.2% from 2.5% — 2026’s largest single-day revision — as ADP missed at 98K; Thursday’s NFP is the binary risk event. Warsh at ECB Sintra refused July guidance with hike odds at 54%; 10Y +6 bps to 4.48%. WFC +3.99% on Goldman upgrade and 11% dividend raise as all 32 banks cleared stress tests; Financials +1.61%.
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MIB Daily: AI Capex Cracks, FOMC Unanimously Hawkish — Enterprise Software Long, Memory Short, Iran Oil Binary at $69 Unresolved
OpenAI may delay its IPO to 2027 — WDC -13%, STX -12%, Nasdaq -1.09% — as markets rotated into enterprise software (MSFT +5.71%, PLTR +5.28%). Kashkari flipped to a 2026 hike, completing a unanimous FOMC hawk chorus; the trade deficit exploded to $105.8B vs. $85B, lifting September cut odds to 55%. LLY +7.13% on EU leukemia approval drove healthcare to a record weekly outperformance. Iran struck a Hormuz vessel but oil fell -2.73%. Trump threatened 100% tariffs on DST nations.
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MIB Daily: Good news is bad news — Warsh reprices 2Y to 4.21%, AVGO/GEV defy selloff; can $75 WTI hold when Iran supply returns?
Fed Chair Warsh’s inaugural FOMC strips the easing bias; 9 of 18 members project a 2026 rate hike, dismantling the rate-cut thesis that anchored 2025 equity valuations — S&P -1.21%, 2Y yield to a 14-month high. Retail sales +0.9% handed Warsh hawkish cover; good news is now market-negative. US-Iran peace MOU opens Hormuz, WTI -5% to $75; IEA projects an 8 mb/d 2027 supply glut. AI hardware (AVGO +4.30%, GEV +6.77%) defied the selloff; META -5.44% on AI product executive departure.
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MIB Daily: Semiconductors Declared Most Crowded in History, Then Imploded — Warsh’s Dot-Plot Could Do the Same to Rotation
BofA declared semiconductors the most crowded trade in history — MRVL -9.78%, AMD -7.30%, INTC -8.45% — while the Dow hit its 17th record on Financials and Industrials rotation. Kevin Warsh opens his inaugural FOMC with a rate hold expected but a hawkish dot-plot likely; May housing starts collapsed -15.4% to 1.177M (weakest since 2020) and import prices surged to 6.7% YoY. WTI -5.09% on Iran peace deal repricing. SpaceX acquired Cursor for $60B, crossing a $2.8T valuation to overtake Amazon.
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