TABLE OF CONTENTS

A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
B. MARKET DATA
C. HIGH-IMPACT STORIES (5)
D. MODERATE-IMPACT STORIES (6)
E. ECONOMY WATCH (4)
F. EARNINGS WATCH (9)
G. WHAT’S NEXT
H. CHART OF THE DAY

A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -> TOP

B. MARKET DATA -> TOP

Big Tech earnings drove the tape as Amazon’s blowout AWS beat (+15.32%) and strong Alphabet and Meta results powered the S&P 500 (+0.70%) and Dow (+0.53%) to fresh session gains, even as Apple sank 7.35% on tariff-driven chip costs squeezing margins. The rally was narrow — Consumer Cyclical (+4.42%) and Communication Services (+3.59%) carried the tape while Basic Materials (-2.12%) and Healthcare (-1.02%) lagged, and the Russell 2000 slipped 0.49% as small-caps sat out the mega-cap surge. Bonds refused to confirm the risk-on mood — the 10-year yield rose 5.3bps even as the VIX fell 6.44%, a disconnect that bears watching. Gold slipped 1.22% on fading haven demand while WTI and Brent both gained over 1%, a demand-side signal consistent with the equity rally.

CLOSING PRICES – July 31, 2026:

MAJOR INDICES

The rally was concentrated in mega-cap earnings winners rather than broad-based — Nasdaq (+0.60%) and S&P (+0.70%) outpaced the Dow (+0.53%) as Amazon and Alphabet drove tech/communications strength, while the Russell 2000 (-0.49%) and NYSE Composite (-0.13%) show small-caps and the broader tape did not participate. Dow Theory non-confirmation extends into a second session — the Dow sits within 2% of its 10-session high while Transports remain more than 7% below theirs, meaning industrials strength on earnings is not being confirmed by cyclically-sensitive transports.

VOLATILITY & TREASURIES

VIX fell 6.44% while both the 10-year (+5.3bps) and 2-year (+3.7bps) yields rose — bonds are declining to confirm the equity rally rather than validating it, a mild disconnect worth flagging. The curve steepened slightly as the 10-year led higher. DXY was essentially flat (-0.03%), suggesting the move is domestic earnings-driven rather than a dollar or safe-haven story.

COMMODITIES

Gold (-1.22%) and silver (-1.60%) fell together as risk-on earnings sentiment reduced haven demand, while copper (+0.62%) held firm — precious metals and industrial metals diverging confirms this is a growth story, not an inflation one. Bitcoin dropped 2.78% against a rising equity tape, decoupling from risk sentiment on its own idiosyncratic weakness.

ENERGY

WTI (+1.20%) and Brent (+1.23%) moved in lockstep — a global, not regional, story. Natural gas lagged: Henry Hub rose just 0.44% while Dutch TTF gained roughly 1.24%, European gas remaining the more sensitive benchmark. Crude rising alongside a record-setting equity tape reads as a demand/growth signal, not a stagflationary cost-push shock.

S&P 500 SECTORS

Consumer Cyclical (+4.42% 1D, +6.92% 1W) and Communication Services (+3.59% 1D) rode Amazon and Alphabet earnings to the top of both the daily and weekly tables. Basic Materials was today’s worst performer (-2.12%) and is also the 3-month (-6.85%) and 6-month (-9.67%) laggard — a deepening structural slide beneath a still-strong 12-month gain (+31.13%). Technology’s -0.49% dip looks idiosyncratic (Apple-driven) against its strong 3-month (+7.29%) and YTD (+16.59%) trend.

TOP MEGA-CAP MOVERS:

GAINERS

DECLINERS

C. HIGH-IMPACT STORIES -> TOP

1. The 10-Year Yield Closes at Its Highest Since January 2025 and Equities Simply Look Past It — a Second Consecutive Session of Bond Non-Confirmation

The core facts:The 10-year Treasury yield rose 5.3 basis points to 4.716%, its highest close since January 2025, and the 2-year added 3.7 basis points to 4.266% — on a session when the S&P 500 gained 0.70% and the VIX fell 6.44% to 15.99. The move followed a Chicago PMI beat that Section E carries in full, and came alongside fresh hawkish commentary: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said there is a “strong case for adding restraint in current policy, taking back some of 2025’s rate cuts.” Futures now price the policy rate near 3.8% by October and close to 4% at year-end, holding near 4% through mid-2027 — a path that embeds a hike rather than a cut. This is the second straight session in which yields rose while equities rallied and volatility fell.

Why it matters:Two asset classes are now telling incompatible stories about the same economy. The equity market is discounting an AI-capex cycle that justifies paying up for duration in growth names; the bond market is discounting a policy rate that goes up, not down, and stays there for eighteen months. Both cannot be right, and the resolution matters more than the level of either. If yields are correct, the multiple currently supporting the mega-cap complex is being financed at a discount rate that is still rising — which is precisely the configuration that produced Wednesday’s air pocket. What makes this session different from an ordinary risk-on day is the company the yield move keeps. Barkin is not a dissenter; he is a sitting president arguing publicly for reversing cuts already delivered, three days after three of his colleagues voted for a hike. The hawkish position has moved from the minority of the vote to the centre of the public conversation, and the front end has begun to price it. For a portfolio, the practical consequence is that rate risk is no longer a tail — it is the base case embedded in the curve, and equity positioning has not adjusted to it. Investors “looking past” the bond market is a description of behaviour, not a justification for it.

What to watch:Whether the 10-year sustains a close above 4.75% — a break there would take it beyond the entire post-2024 range and force a genuine equity repricing. Watch the 2-year for a move through 4.35%, which would confirm the front end is pricing a hike rather than merely removing cuts.

2. Warsh Floats Cutting the FOMC to Four Meetings a Year — a Decision Could Land Before the September Meeting

The core facts:The New York Times reported Friday, citing people familiar with the matter, that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is considering reducing the number of regularly scheduled FOMC policy meetings — discussing a schedule of four a year rather than eight. Warsh raised the idea at this week’s meeting and left the impression the change could be decided before the next meeting on September 15-16. The Fed has held eight scheduled meetings a year since 1981, excluding crisis-driven emergency sessions. This is the third structural change to Fed communications under Warsh, following his decision to scrap forward guidance and to withhold the Summary of Economic Projections.

Why it matters:Halving the meeting calendar is not an administrative tidy-up; it changes the mechanics of how policy risk is distributed through the year. Eight meetings spread the probability of a move across eight relatively small event windows. Four meetings concentrate the same probability into four much larger ones, and lengthen the interval during which the committee cannot respond to data without convening an unscheduled session. For options markets, that raises the implied volatility attached to each remaining date and lowers it in between — a mechanical repricing of the entire event-risk calendar that affects hedging costs long before any rate actually changes. The deeper issue is the direction of travel. Removed forward guidance, withheld projections, and now fewer decision points, all within two meetings of taking the chair: the market is being asked to price a policy path with progressively less information and progressively fewer opportunities to observe the committee’s reaction function. That is defensible as a philosophy — Warsh has argued the Fed became too talkative — but it arrives at a moment when three regional presidents are dissenting for a hike and the long bond is at levels last seen in 2007. Less transparency during a period of genuine internal disagreement raises, rather than lowers, the term premium investors will demand.

What to watch:Any formal Fed announcement on the 2027 meeting calendar before September 15-16 — that is the stated decision window. Watch the term premium on the 10-year and the pricing of Fed-date options, which should widen on the remaining dates if a four-meeting year becomes the base case.

3. The Hyperscalers Commit to $720-745 Billion of 2026 Capital Spending — the AI-Capex Scare of July Is Answered With a Number

The core facts:Following this week’s reporting round, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta have collectively guided to roughly $720-745 billion of 2026 capital projects — against approximately $410 billion spent in 2025, an increase of about 77%. Amazon lifted its own 2026 cash capex outlook to approximately $220 billion from about $200 billion, with CEO Andy Jassy attributing the increase specifically to the higher cost of memory. Alphabet is guiding near $185 billion, Meta near $125 billion and Microsoft near $120 billion. The market response was immediate and concentrated: Consumer Cyclical gained 4.42% and Communication Services 3.59%, Arista Networks rose 5.46% as a direct AI-capex beneficiary, and the S&P 500 closed up 0.70%.

Why it matters:July’s semiconductor drawdown was a financing scare, not a demand break, and this is the number that settles the question. The market spent the month asking whether hyperscaler capital expenditure would decelerate under the weight of its own funding costs; four companies have now answered with a 77% year-on-year increase and an explicit statement that supply, not demand, is the binding constraint. That converts an aggregate spending intention into a visible order book for the electrical-equipment, networking, power and construction complex that sits downstream of it — names whose revenue is a function of somebody else’s capex line, and whose visibility just extended by a year. The composition of the increase carries the caution. Amazon’s own raise was driven by memory cost inflation rather than by additional compute, which means a meaningful share of the aggregate figure buys the same capacity at a higher price. Capex that rises because inputs are scarce is a weaker signal than capex that rises because demand is greater, and it compresses the return on invested capital of the spender even as it flatters the revenue of the supplier. The trade remains long the suppliers and increasingly ambivalent on the buyers — which is exactly how the tape traded, with Arista up 5.46% while Apple fell 7.35% on the same input-cost problem.

What to watch:Whether any hyperscaler trims the guided figure at the Q3 reporting round in late October — the first genuine test of whether $720-745 billion is a commitment or an aspiration. Watch the electrical-equipment order books, where Eaton’s 41% twelve-month rolling order growth in Electrical Americas is the cleanest available confirmation that the spend is landing.

4. The Index Rose and the Market Fell — Eight of Eleven Sectors Close Red as the Russell 2000 and NYSE Composite Finish Negative on a 0.70% S&P Day

The core facts:The S&P 500 closed up 0.70% at 7,489.80, the Nasdaq 0.60% at 28,274.20 and the Dow 0.53% at 52,485.74 — while the Russell 2000 fell 0.49% to 2,931.67 and the NYSE Composite fell 0.13% to 24,107.54. Eight of the eleven S&P sectors finished lower. Only Consumer Cyclical (+4.42%), Communication Services (+3.59%) and Energy (+0.81%) rose meaningfully; Technology itself finished down 0.49%, Healthcare down 1.02% and Basic Materials down 2.12%, the day’s worst. Two names — Amazon at +15.32% and Alphabet at roughly +6.8% — did the overwhelming majority of the index work. The Dow Jones Transportation Average fell 0.24% to 21,039.3, extending its non-confirmation of the Dow into a second session, and this was the final trading day of July.

Why it matters:An index that rises while its own technology sector, its small-cap complement and its broadest composite all fall is not describing a market advance; it is describing two stocks. The distinction is not academic, because the S&P’s cap-weighting converts a concentrated result into a headline that reads as a general one, and asset-allocation decisions get made off the headline. On the day the equal-weighted reality — eight of eleven sectors red, the Russell down, the NYSE Composite down — was a mild decline. This matters more than usual because it is a month-end print. July closes with the Dow’s fourth consecutive winning month, and that framing will be used to characterise the market’s condition into August, when it in fact characterises the condition of the four largest companies in it. The defensive implication is the uncomfortable part: an investor who owns the index believes they own diversification, and on a session like this they own a leveraged position in hyperscaler capital spending with a small ballast of everything else. The offsetting reading is that breadth of this kind is a description of leadership, not of deterioration — nothing in today’s data said anything negative about the 493 names that were not doing the work. But narrow tapes are fragile tapes, and this one has now been narrow for two consecutive sessions while the bond market moved against it.

What to watch:Whether the Russell 2000 and NYSE Composite participate in the next up session — two consecutive index gains without them would mark the narrowness as structural rather than earnings-specific. Watch the equal-weighted S&P against the cap-weighted index, the cleanest single measure of how much of the advance is real.

5. Iran Halts Two Vessels Exiting Hormuz and Turns Back Four More — Brent Closes a July That Gained Roughly 23%

The core facts:Iran said Friday that its forces stopped two ships attempting to exit the Strait of Hormuz, and that four further tankers turned back after interference — claims that have not been independently verified. Brent closed at $87.95 a barrel, up 1.23%, and WTI at $84.59, up 1.20%, capping a July advance of roughly 23% for the global benchmark. Energy was the third-best S&P sector on the day at +0.81% and is now up 13.46% over one month and 33.10% year-to-date. The interference report follows a similar unconfirmed Iranian claim earlier in the week, six months into a maritime conflict that has left Middle East crude supply severely bottlenecked.

Why it matters:A 23% monthly move in the world’s benchmark crude is an inflation event, and it lands in the same week three FOMC members voted for a hike and a fourth publicly argued for reversing last year’s cuts. The energy complex has now delivered the single largest identifiable upward contribution to the forward inflation path, and it has done so through supply interdiction rather than demand strength — the variety of price increase that monetary policy cannot address and that squeezes real incomes directly. That is the transmission channel from a shipping lane to a US portfolio: not the oil price itself, but what the oil price does to the Fed’s room for manoeuvre. The mechanism of the move deserves attention. Iran is no longer required to close Hormuz to move the price; it is sufficient to announce that vessels were turned back, twice in one week, unverified. That is a very low-cost lever, and its repeated use suggests the risk premium can be maintained indefinitely without escalation that would invite direct retaliation. For energy equities the read remains constructive — Energy is the year’s strongest sector at +33.10% — but the same dynamic that supports producer margins is the one raising input costs across transport, chemicals and consumer goods into the second half.

What to watch:The OPEC+ ministerial on August 2, where the market expects roughly a 188 kbpd September increase — a larger unwinding of voluntary cuts would be the first genuine bearish supply catalyst in months. Watch whether Brent holds above $85, the level that separates this move from a return to the pre-escalation range.

D. MODERATE-IMPACT STORIES -> TOP

6. KKR Nears a $4.3 Billion Takeover of Integer Holdings at $127 a Share — the Third Large Private-Equity Move Into Healthcare Manufacturing

The core facts:The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that KKR is nearing a deal to acquire Integer Holdings, the Plano, Texas-based medical-device outsourcing manufacturer, at approximately $127 per share — valuing the company near $4.3 billion on roughly 33.95 million shares outstanding. An offer could arrive as soon as next week. Integer shares closed more than 20% higher on the report. The transaction would follow American Industrial Partners’ $1.27 billion purchase of Avanos Medical and the Blackstone/TPG agreement for Hologic at more than $18 billion.

Why it matters:Three sizeable private-equity acquisitions of healthcare manufacturers inside a short window is a pattern rather than a coincidence, and the pattern is informative about where sponsors currently see mispricing. Medical-device outsourcing is a contract-manufacturing business with long-dated customer relationships, regulatory switching costs and cash flows that are largely insensitive to the AI capital cycle absorbing everyone else’s attention — precisely the profile that supports leverage when the equity market is paying for growth elsewhere. That KKR is willing to underwrite it at a 20%-plus premium with the 10-year at 4.716% says the financing market for quality mid-cap cash flow is functioning, which is a more useful credit signal than any spread level. For public-market investors the read-through runs to the remaining independent device and outsourcing names, which now carry an embedded takeover option that was not priced a month ago, and to the healthcare sector generally — down 1.02% today and the third-worst performer over one week, yet attracting the largest sponsor cheques in the market. That divergence between public-market apathy and private-market appetite is where deal premia come from. The caveat is that the transaction is reported, not announced: no offer has been made and the price could move.

What to watch:Whether a formal offer is announced next week at or above the reported $127 — a lower final price would signal the financing came in tighter than expected. Watch the other listed device-outsourcing names for sympathy re-rating, the cleanest evidence the market is pricing a sector-wide consolidation thesis.

7. The Kospi Posts Its Largest Single-Day Gain in History at +17.9% and SK Hynix Locks Limit-Up — Yet Micron Falls 5.90% in the US Session

The core facts:South Korea’s Kospi surged 17.9% to 6,695.45, the largest single-day gain in the index’s history, after falling more than 17% over the previous three sessions. SK Hynix hit its 30% daily price limit and Samsung Electronics rose roughly 23-28%. The US memory complex did not follow: Micron closed down 5.90% at $823.03, the second-worst mega-cap decliner of the day, and the Technology sector finished down 0.49% — the only major sector to fall on a day led by Consumer Cyclical and Communication Services. This is the fourth double-digit Kospi session in six weeks, after declines of 10%, 9% and 10.2% in late June and July.

Why it matters:The same commodity is being priced as an asset in Seoul and as a cost in New York. Memory scarcity is unambiguously good for the companies that make it — hence SK Hynix at limit-up — and it is unambiguously bad for the companies that buy it, which is why Amazon cited higher memory costs as the reason its 2026 capex rose to roughly $220 billion and Apple flagged worsening memory-component supply as a September-quarter margin headwind. The US tape has begun to weight the second effect more heavily than the first, and Micron falling 5.90% on the day its Korean peers went limit-up is the clearest expression of that shift yet. The second observation is about stability. An index that has now moved more than 9% in a single session four times in six weeks, in both directions, is not processing new information at each move — it is being repriced by flows that overwhelm fundamentals, with the direction reversing every fortnight. Korean memory names are the highest-beta expression of the AI trade available anywhere, and their volatility is now feeding into US overnight risk without a corresponding directional signal. For a US portfolio the practical conclusion is that the Kospi has stopped being a useful leading indicator for the domestic semiconductor complex, and treating it as one this session would have been costly.

What to watch:Whether Micron recovers with the Asian complex in the next two sessions or continues to trade as a cost-inflation casualty — the divergence resolving one way or the other defines how the US market is pricing memory. Watch DRAM and NAND contract pricing updates for confirmation that the shortage is tightening rather than peaking.

8. Gold Falls 1.22% and Silver 1.60% as the Haven Bid Unwinds — the Metals Reverse Yesterday’s Signal Even as Yields Rise

The core facts:Gold fell 1.22% to $4,050.25 an ounce and silver 1.60% to $58.07, reversing the previous session’s gains of 1.58% and 2.02% respectively. Platinum was unchanged at $1,660.25. The decline came on a session when the 10-year yield rose 5.3 basis points and the dollar index was essentially flat at 99.83, down 0.03% — meaning neither a stronger dollar nor a collapse in inflation expectations explains the move. Copper diverged, rising 0.62% to $6.5148 a pound. Bitcoin fell 2.78% to $62,999.

Why it matters:Yesterday gold rose alongside rising yields and a falling dollar, and that combination was read as a credibility signal — capital preferring real assets to a currency whose central bank was arguing with itself. Today the dollar stopped falling and gold gave the move back, which reframes the previous session as positioning rather than conviction. That is a useful correction to make quickly: a two-day pattern that looked like the start of a de-dollarisation trade has resolved into ordinary haven demand that ebbed when equities rallied. The divergence between precious and industrial metals is the more durable signal. Gold and silver falling while copper rises separates the monetary-hedge bid from the physical-demand bid, and it is the physical leg that held. That is consistent with the day’s dominant narrative — a data-centre buildout that consumes electrical infrastructure — and inconsistent with a market genuinely worried about inflation, which would have bid both. Bitcoin’s 2.78% decline against a rising equity tape reinforces the reading that this was an unwind of hedges rather than a rotation into risk. The honest limitation is that gold at $4,050 remains above the level it held for most of the quarter; one down day does not undo the trend, and the metal is still discounting something the bond market is not.

What to watch:Whether gold holds the $4,000 handle — a decisive break below would confirm the haven bid is genuinely unwinding rather than pausing. Watch the gold-copper ratio, which now cleanly separates the monetary hedge from the AI-infrastructure demand story.

9. Employment Costs Beat Forecasts While Real Wages Fall 0.4% — the Margin Squeeze the Equity Rally Is Ignoring

The core facts:The second-quarter Employment Cost Index rose 0.9% against a 0.8% consensus, with total compensation up 3.4% year-over-year — Section E carries the full composition, including the benefits and wages split. The market-relevant layer: inflation-adjusted private-sector wages fell 0.4% year-over-year despite the nominal beat. The release landed on a session when the front end of the curve moved higher, with the 2-year yield adding 3.7 basis points to 4.266%, and when Consumer Defensive fell 0.47% and Healthcare 1.02% — two of the most labour-cost-intensive sectors in the index.

Why it matters:A labour-cost print that beats while real wages fall is the worst available combination for the two constituencies that matter to an equity portfolio. Corporates are paying more per unit of labour, which compresses margins in every service and healthcare business where headcount is the dominant cost line and pricing power is capped by contract or regulation. Households are simultaneously earning less in purchasing-power terms, which caps the volume growth that would otherwise offset the margin pressure. Neither effect is visible in an index driven by four companies whose cost structures are capital rather than labour — which is precisely why this print will not show up in the tape until it shows up in guidance. For the Fed the reading is more awkward still. A 3.4% total compensation growth rate is not consistent with 2% inflation on any standard productivity assumption, which strengthens the hand of the three members who dissented for a hike and of Barkin, who argued today for reversing last year’s cuts. The bond market’s response — the 2-year rising alongside the 10-year — suggests it read the print the same way. The mitigating factor is that a 0.1 percentage point beat is well within normal variation, and one quarter does not establish a re-acceleration in labour costs.

What to watch:Whether real wage growth returns to positive territory in the next monthly earnings data — a second consecutive negative print would materially weaken the consumption outlook into the holiday quarter. Watch labour-intensive sector guidance in the remaining Q2 reports for explicit references to compensation cost pressure.

10. Consumer Sentiment Beats at 55.2 and Inflation Expectations Ease to 4.2% — but the Level Remains Far Below Last July’s 61.7

The core facts:Final July University of Michigan consumer sentiment came in at 55.2 against a 54.0 expectation and 49.5 prior, a second consecutive monthly gain, while one-year inflation expectations eased to 4.2% from 4.6% — Section E carries the full survey detail. The market layer: the reading remains well below last July’s 61.7, and it landed on a session when Consumer Cyclical rose 4.42% on Amazon’s result and Consumer Defensive fell 0.47%. Consumer Cyclical remains down 3.33% year-to-date and down 4.82% over six months despite today’s surge.

Why it matters:The easing in one-year inflation expectations is the part the Fed will notice, because expectations anchoring is the argument the hawkish minority has been making against holding rates. A four-tenths decline is a genuine improvement to the case for patience, and it partially offsets the Employment Cost Index print released the same morning. But 4.2% expected inflation is still roughly double the target, and the level of sentiment — a second monthly gain that leaves the index more than six points below where it stood a year ago — describes a consumer who is recovering from a low base rather than one who is confident. The tension with today’s sector tape is worth naming explicitly. Consumer Cyclical’s 4.42% gain was Amazon’s result, not a statement about household demand; the underlying sector remains negative year-to-date and negative over six months. An investor reading the sector table without that context would conclude the consumer discretionary complex is inflecting, when the survey data says the consumer is merely less pessimistic than in the spring while real wages fall. The two readings can be reconciled — households can spend at a resilient large-cap platform while feeling worse about their finances — but they cannot both be used to support a broad consumer-recovery thesis.

What to watch:Whether one-year inflation expectations continue below 4.2% in the preliminary August reading — a third consecutive decline would meaningfully weaken the hawkish case ahead of the September meeting. Watch back-to-school retail data as the first hard test of whether improving sentiment translates into spending.

11. SpaceX Falls 3.41% to Near Its 52-Week Low — the Year’s Marquee Listing Now Trades Roughly 30% Below Its Debut on the Market’s Best AI Day

The core facts:Space Exploration Technologies fell 3.41% to $108.37, extending a post-IPO slide that leaves the stock roughly 30% below its debut price and near its 52-week low, with its first earnings report still ahead. The decline came on a session when the S&P 500 rose 0.70%, Communication Services gained 3.59% and the broader AI-infrastructure complex rallied on hyperscaler capex guidance — precisely the tape in which a capital-intensive technology listing would be expected to participate. Separately, the new-issue calendar remained active, with Apnimed pricing roughly $150 million as one of twelve pricings scheduled for the session.

Why it matters:A stock that cannot rally on the single best day of the quarter for its own thematic neighbourhood is telling you something specific about the demand behind it. SpaceX is the largest and most visible listing of 2026, and its failure to participate while Arista rose 5.46% and Alphabet roughly 6.8% separates the AI-infrastructure trade from the broader growth-listing trade — investors are paying for demonstrated earnings power in the capex chain, not for narrative in adjacent frontier technology. The 30% discount to debut also functions as the market’s running verdict on 2026 IPO pricing, and it is an unflattering one. That verdict now sits alongside Jersey Mike’s breaking issue by 8.7% earlier this month, which is a second large 2026 listing trading below its offer price. Twelve pricings scheduled in a single session says the window is open; two marquee deals underwater says the window is open at prices sponsors will not like. For anyone holding pre-IPO positions marked against public comparables, that gap between issuance volume and aftermarket performance is the number that matters. The caveat is timing: SpaceX has not yet reported, and the slide is occurring in an information vacuum that its first results will either resolve or deepen.

What to watch:SpaceX’s first earnings report as a public company — the first hard data against which the 30% discount can be judged. Watch whether the twelve deals pricing this session hold their issue prices through their first week, the cleanest read on whether the IPO window is genuinely reopening.

E. ECONOMY WATCH -> TOP

Friday’s data cut against the recession narrative that dominated earlier in the week: Chicago PMI and University of Michigan consumer sentiment both beat expectations, while the Employment Cost Index topped forecasts as labor costs keep outrunning real wage growth. Resilient activity plus sticky compensation inflation is giving the Fed cover to stay restrictive rather than ease, and Richmond’s Barkin explicitly floated unwinding part of 2025’s rate cuts. Treasury yields responded by pushing to 18-month highs across the curve, with three FOMC members already dissenting in favor of a hike this week — the growth-over-easing tension is now the dominant story heading into next week’s ISM prints.

F. EARNINGS WATCH -> TOP

YESTERDAY AFTER THE BELL (Markets Reacted Today)

TODAY BEFORE THE BELL (Markets Already Reacted)

TODAY AFTER THE BELL (Markets React Tomorrow)

No major earnings after the bell from companies with >$100B market cap.

WEEK AHEAD PREVIEW:

G. WHAT’S NEXT -> TOP

UPCOMING RELEASES:

KEY QUESTIONS:

H. CHART OF THE DAY -> TOP

Market Intelligence Brief (MIB) Ver. 18.47
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