A cooler August PCE cut October hike odds to about 37% from 51%, and Goldman pushed its next-hike call to December. Bonds balked: the 10-year rose 5.0 bps to 5.292%, highest since April 2002 per Investing.com, and 30-year mortgage rates hit 7.30%. A late selloff left only the Nasdaq 100 higher. The Fed finalized a stress-test overhaul over Barr’s dissent, CMS tied Part B drug rebates to international prices, and Amazon signed a 20-year nuclear deal with Constellation.
Archive | September, 2026
MIB Daily: The Bond Market Is Doing the Fed’s Hiking, a 5.292% 10-Year Defies Cooler PCE as Tech Stands Alone, Banks and Pharma Get New Rules and Crude’s September Surge Tests the Pause Before Friday’s Payrolls
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MIB Daily: A Later Hike Is Not an Easier One as the 30-Year Hits Its Highest Since 2002, Crude Slips Below $90 While Confidence Sinks, and OpenAI’s $70B Run-Rate Lifts Chip Equipment as AI Agents Threaten Apple
WTI slid 3.98% to $88.91 as Kpler counted 12.5 million barrels loaded at Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu, while Iran awaits a formal US reply through Qatar. NY Fed’s Williams saw “no need for urgency,” pulling October hike odds to about a coin flip, but Barr and Goolsbee held the tightening line. The 30-year still touched its highest since 2002 intraday. Confidence sank to 81.9 against 89.2 expected. Axios put OpenAI’s run-rate near $70B as chip-equipment names lifted the Nasdaq 100.
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MIB Daily: Iran’s Oil Shock Now Runs Through the 10-Year at 5.241%, Gold Fails as the Hedge, META Drops 4.79% on an OpenAI Rival, and Hot Factory Costs Make Wednesday’s PCE the October Hike Test
Trump rejected Iran’s Hormuz roadmap, and the damage ran through bonds: the 10-year closed at 5.241%, topping last week’s high, and the S&P 500 fell 0.77%. Fed Governor Cook said the labor market appears able to handle higher rates. Gold sank 4.02% and silver 5.83%. META fell 4.79% on a reported rival OpenAI agent, while NVDA rose 1.68% on a $150B buyback boost. Boeing slid about 6% as the FAA held up 737 MAX 10 certification.
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MIB Weekly: The Economy Was Too Strong to Save the Bond Market, 10-Year at a 2007 High and October Odds Near 70%, Agents Priced by Usage, the Build-Out Short of Power, the Median Stock 18.6% Below
The 10-year Treasury closed Thursday at 5.225%, its highest since 2007, after a flash PMI at 58.4 and eight Fed speakers pushed October hike odds to roughly 70% — and yet the S&P 500 finished up 1.21%. That gain belonged to almost nobody: the Nasdaq 100 rose 3.25% on Meta (+12.90%), Qualcomm (+13.65%), Intel (+13.26%) and AMD (+12.65%), while the NYSE Composite and the Russell 2000 both fell. Oracle lost 7.12% on a force-majeure notice over its New Mexico data centre.
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MIB Daily: Good News Is Now the Fed’s Problem, as MSFT +3.66% and a 1.6% Capex Jump Carry AI Into Industrials, Xi Leaves Without Deals and Wednesday’s Core PCE Decides an October Hike
Microsoft (MSFT) jumped 3.66%, leading the Dow and S&P 500, after a Copilot overhaul putting its agents on usage-based pricing. Core capital-goods orders rose 1.6%, but Michigan year-ahead inflation expectations climbed to 4.6%, keeping an October hike in play. WTI fell 2.01% on hopes of a phased US-Iran Hormuz deal. Xi left Washington with no new purchase deals and advanced chips off the table. BofA double-downgraded Nike (NKE) to Underperform with a $30 target, six days before earnings.
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MIB Daily: The Bond Market Is Doing the Fed’s Job, the 10-Year Hits 5.225% and the 7-Year Clears at a 1993 High as Brent Tops $107, and Only Meta Holds the Line While Utilities and Housing Pay
The 10-year jumped 10.9 bps to 5.225%, its highest since 2007, and the 7-year auction cleared at the highest yield since 1993. Brent surged 4.25% to $107.46 on an Iranian threat to widen the war and Houthi missiles aimed at Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu terminal. The Fed’s Williams called another hike by year-end “reasonable.” META +4.50% held the S&P 500 flat as eight of 11 sectors fell. Anthropic committed $11.6B to Akamai’s cloud. ORCL -3.47% on a Project Jupiter force-majeure notice.
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MIB Daily: The 10-Year Hit 5.11%, Its Highest Since 2007, as a Hot PMI Turned Good News Into Rate Risk and Brent Topped $100, Leaving Stocks With No Bond Hedge and Small Caps and Utilities Hit Hardest
The 10-year yield jumped 16.2 bps to 5.110%, highest since June 2007, after a hot flash PMI (58.4) and a weak 5-year auction. Stocks fell with bonds: S&P 500 -0.75%, Russell 2000 -1.77%. Fed’s Barr: further adjustments “likely to be needed”; October hike odds near 73%. Brent surged 4.43% back above $100 on Iran’s UN defiance despite a US crude build. McDonald’s sank 4.81% on flat-traffic guidance. Bessent is “open” to extending the China truce before Thursday’s Xi summit.
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MIB Daily: AI Came for the Banks as Schwab Fell 6.1% and Memory Lifted the Nasdaq 100 to a Record, Iran’s Hormuz Offer Sank WTI 2.73%, and Barkin’s “We’ll See” Leaves Rate Risk Unpriced
Wall Street split: the Nasdaq 100 closed above its June peak as SanDisk (+6.82%) and Micron (+5.00%) ran, while the S&P bank index sank 3% on AI-disruption fears from Meta’s Muse agent, with Schwab down 6.1%. WTI fell 2.73%, a fifth straight loss, after Iran offered to reopen Hormuz within seven days. Trump pushed a diesel export ban; Valero, also downgraded, slid 4.10%. Fed’s Barkin on more hikes: “We’ll see.” Royal Caribbean tumbled 6.14% on a $3B Sandals stake report.
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MIB Daily: Stocks Priced the End of the Oil Shock and the Fed Did Not, as Brent Slipped Below $100, Musalem Eyed More Hikes and Intel and Meta Jumped 11%+ With No Dated Catalyst Before the Trump-Xi Summit
Crude fell a fourth session, Brent slipping below $100 (-3.77%) as Saudi tankers massed in the Gulf and Iran relayed its Hormuz terms; the S&P 500 rose 1.49% to within 0.4% of its record. Intel (+12.17%), AMD (+9.95%) and Meta (+11.34%) lifted the Nasdaq 100 2.83%. Fed’s Musalem said more hikes are likely; the 2-year rose as the 10-year fell 4.2 bps. Paramount settled the states’ suit, sending WBD up 10.79%. Bitcoin jumped 7.57% to an eight-month high.
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MIB Weekly: The Fed Hiked Into a Shock It Can’t Fix, the 10-Year Closed Above 5% and Diesel Hit a Record $6.45 as Banks and AI Borrowers Paid and Memory Makers Won, With a Second Hike in October Still Open
MIB WEEKLY DIGEST Week of Sep 14–18, 2026 The Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023 and signalled more, sending the 2-year yield up 12.4 bps and the 10-year to its first closes above 5% before a Friday retreat to 4.998%. The Nasdaq 100 (+0.94%) was the only major index higher as an AI-safety essay lifted CrowdStrike 14.95% on the week while chip equipment crashed and then recovered most of the loss. Bank of America’s fee warning […]
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MIB Daily: The 2-Year Prices a Second Hike While Stocks Carry Zero Premium, Record $6.45 Diesel Is the Inflation the Fed Can’t Reach, and a 10-Year at 4.998% Hits Netflix as Chip Equipment Is Bought
The 10-Year climbed back to 4.998% as the 2-Year jumped 6.4bps and Bank of America warned of a “2022 redux.” The Bank of Japan hiked to 1.25%, a 31-year high — and the yen weakened. WTI fell 2.35% to $99.52 while AAA’s national diesel average hit a record $6.4476. Warren Buffett stepped down as Berkshire chairman at 96. Bitcoin jumped 6.15% above $80,000; Netflix fell 4.67% on a Wells Fargo downgrade. August industrial production stalled as manufacturing output fell 0.3%.
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MIB Daily: A Rate Hike Un-Priced in One Session With No Official Able to Answer, the VIX Down 12.82%, Chips Bid Without News While CoreWeave Fell 4.16% Raising $3.0 Billion, and Three Central Banks Turn by Friday
Markets un-priced Wednesday’s Fed hike in one session — VIX -12.82%, the 10-Year -6.7bps to 4.937%, S&P 500 +1.14%. Chip and AI-infrastructure names took all five top mega-cap gainer slots: Intel +7.62%, AMD +6.30%, Micron +5.50%. Jobless claims fell to 196K; housing missed across the board. The Bank of England held at 3.75% and paused gilt sales for six months. The SEC opened a five-year path for tokenized stocks. CoreWeave fell 4.16% raising $3bn; private rival Crusoe’s $3.9bn round was oversubscribed.
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MIB Daily: The Fed’s First Hike Since 2023 Leaves October a 51-49 Coin-Flip, J.B. Hunt’s Diesel Warning Sinks Transports 2.78% and Banks Find the Hike Doesn’t Pay, So Favour Short Duration Over Rate-Sensitive Cyclicals
The Fed hiked for the first time since 2023 and 16 of 18 officials see more — October is now a coin-flip and the 10-Year closed above 5%. August retail sales smashed forecasts at +1.2% while import prices ran hottest since 2022. Transports sank 2.78% as J.B. Hunt (-13.3%) warned on diesel and driver costs. Goldman (-4.0%) and Huntington (-5.6%) dragged banks. Crude fell 3.4% on Saudi pipeline repair hopes. GE Vernova (+4.8%) and Intel (+4.0%) bucked the tape.
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MIB Daily: The Fed Can Raise Rates but It Cannot Pump Oil, 10Y at 5.006% on a Seventh Straight Rise With WTI +4.10%, as Carlyle Likens AI Lending to Subprime and Crypto’s Rulebook Dies 46-43
The Senate killed crypto market structure 46-43 — Lummis: “I think we’re done. It’s over.” Bitcoin fell 3.84% to $76,058. The 10-year posted its first 5%-handle close, a seventh straight, on the eve of a hike priced at 96%. WTI +4.10% to $105.55 with Saudi’s pipeline up to six weeks from repair; EIA weekly diesel broke $6 at $6.285. Empire State collapsed to 7.6 from 20.60. Carlyle likened AI-infrastructure lending to subprime. Thermo Fisher +4.53%; Wells Fargo cut its S&P target to 7,700.
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MIB Daily: AI Safety Became a Capex Line Item, Lam -8.29% Against CrowdStrike +13.85%, and the Fed Meets Wednesday With the 10-Year at 4.999% and a $101.91 Barrel That Is a Refiner’s Margin and a Consumer’s Tax
Amodei’s weekend call to slow AI split the tape — Lam Research -8.29%, Applied Materials -7.07%, while CrowdStrike +13.85% and Palo Alto +13.09% led. Trump dismissed guardrails as a “SICK conspiracy.” Hormuz talks collapsed: WTI +1.86%, VIX +7.95%, diesel to an all-time $6.23. Wednesday’s hike is now near-unanimous, the 10-year closing at 4.999%. BofA guided banking fees down 10%; Altman ruled out a 2026 OpenAI IPO, knocking Goldman -3.96%. GE Vernova -8.62% on a street-low Sell.
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MIB Daily: The Market Bought a Meeting, Not a Deal, Rallying Into an 86% Hike as Crude Fell 3%, While Oracle’s Capex Lifted Dell 11.98% and Sank Oracle 1.74%, Sentiment 47.8 Before Wednesday
Hot core CPI (+0.3% MoM) lifted September hike odds to 86%, yet stocks rallied 0.86% and the VIX fell 11.21%. Iran agreed to meet Gulf ministers on Hormuz shipping, sending crude down nearly 3% and ending Brent’s eight-session run. Oracle’s $90-95bn capex guidance detonated AI hardware, Dell +11.98% to a record, HPE +10.70%. Consumer sentiment fell to 47.8, second-lowest since 1952, with one-year inflation expectations at 4.6%. Saudi Arabia shut its only non-Hormuz export pipeline. The Fed decides Wednesday.
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MIB Daily: Oil Hit $103 and Markets Sold It as a Rate Hike, With Saudi Output Down 1.9 mb/d and AI Hardware Dumped Ahead of Oracle’s Beat as Friday’s CPI Decides Whether the Fed Hikes Next Week
WTI closed above $100 for the first time since May, up 7.3% to $103.06; Saudi Arabia told OPEC its August output fell 1.9 mb/d. Stocks fell a fourth day as the 2-year jumped 15 bps on near-70% Fed hike odds. The ECB hiked to 2.50%, citing energy. Platinum sank 7%, silver 6.7%, gold 2.3%. Lam, Intel, Dell and Micron fell ~5% into Oracle’s print; ORCL beat and rose ~7% after hours. Apple gained 3.6% on its $1,999 foldable.
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MIB Daily: A Rate Hike Cannot Refill a Tanker, Brent $101.61 and Record Diesel Two Days Before CPI, AI Silicon Alone Bid as Ten of Eleven Sectors Fell, and the Sell Side Models 2027 at 4.850%
Brent closed above $100 for the first time since July as Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US base in Jordan — ten of eleven sectors fell, Energy alone gained. Yields rose as stocks fell, the 10-year at 4.850%. Retail diesel set an all-time record two days before CPI. Trump banned Canadian alcohol, dairy and motorcycles. Marvell lifted its two-year outlook to $30bn; Alphabet bought 22 years of Finnish nuclear power. Fed hike odds for next week’s meeting: 61%.
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MIB Daily: Bonds Refused to Rally as Brent Hit $99.28, Novartis -13.93% Dragged Healthcare to -2.54%, and Capital Bought the Constraint Again, Leaving Friday’s CPI to Settle a 60% Hike
Houthi strikes halted Saudi energy operations and pushed Brent within a dollar of $100 — stocks fell, yields rose, and that combination says inflation, not recession. Novartis cratered 13.93% on its second Phase III miss in five days, dragging Amgen down 10.08%. GPT-6 Astra’s rollout finished over the holiday and enterprise software de-rated: ServiceNow -4.99%, Shopify -7.57%. Amazon handed Qualcomm a warrant over 25 million shares. Consumer credit smashed estimates; balances hit records. CPI Friday, FOMC next week.
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MIB Weekly: The S&P Went Nowhere and Everything Under It Moved, WTI +9.22% With Energy Equities Not Following, SNDK +17.17% vs PANW -10.32%, FICO -16.68% by Directive, September Repriced Three Times, Still a Coin Flip
The September FOMC was repriced three times in five sessions and ended where it started: Barr said hike, Waller said hold, and Friday’s 162,000-payroll blowout against a 56,000 consensus flipped implied odds back to 58-60%. Underneath it, five days of US-Iran exchanges put WTI up 9.22% and took retail diesel to an all-time record $5.850, six days before the CPI on which Waller staked his vote. Technology split in half: Sandisk +17.17% against Palo Alto -10.32%.
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