US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s overnight retaliation sent WTI up 3.50% to $86.32 and European gas to its highest since January 2023. Nine of eleven sectors closed red. California’s wildfire bill omitted the liability cap: PG&E -18%, Edison -23%. The FTC and 22 states sued Amazon over a $20bn ad-auction scheme; AMZN -2.50%. Warsh went hawkish at the G20 but the two-year refused to confirm. Aon bought USI for $17bn, all debt-funded.
Tag Archives | Eli Lilly
MIB Daily: A VIX at 14.92 Says Nobody Is Paying for the Hormuz Tail, WTI +3.50% and Utilities Uncapped With PG&E -18%, While the Two-Year Refused to Confirm a 72% Hike Bet and AI Became the Hiding Place
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MIB Weekly: The S&P Rose 0.49% and Told You Nothing, Warsh Sent the 2Y Up 12.2bp and Hike Odds to 68%, Chicago PMI Hit 47.1, Gold and Semicap Took the Hit, Marvell Paid 10.28% for 90bp of Margin
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole keynote to say the central bank has “more work to do” on inflation, and the two-year Treasury yield ended the week 12.2 basis points higher at 4.354% — September is now a live hike meeting, with Polymarket’s 2026 hike contract up twelve points to 68%. The damage landed on gold (−3.50%) and the Russell 2000 (−1.51%), not the S&P 500 (+0.49%). Friday’s rate move then took semiconductor equipment down 4–5%.
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MIB Daily: September Prices a 38% Hike, Not a Cut, With the 2-Year at 4.209% and the 10-Year Up 1bp on 3.7% PCE, a 4.6% Atlanta Fed Nowcast Splits a 1.5% Q2, and Record $4 Gas Lands With Crude Lower Before Warsh
Markets barely moved on a hot headline PCE — but futures now price a September rate HIKE near 38%, not a cut. Meta paid $16.7bn and accepted a decade-long two-hour daily cap on teen accounts. America is heading for its first $4 Labor Day on record, and it’s a refining story, not a crude one. Boston Scientific’s cyberattack has stopped it shipping orders worldwide. Atlanta Fed’s Q3 nowcast turned back up to 4.6%. Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote lands Friday.
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MIB Daily: The Debt Manager Rescued the Long End, Not the Fed, as Chips Fell 5.6% With 30 of 30 Down and Nebius -9.87% Repriced AI’s Funding End, Leaving Healthcare +3.37% and Metals +3.62% Hostage to Rates
Treasury doubled its long-bond buybacks and the tape turned: 10-year -6.8 bps, dollar -0.86%, gold +3.60%. Not a Fed trade: the July minutes showed several members ready to hike, nobody for a cut, and the market shrugged. Chips fell 5.6% a second day, all 30 down. Merck +12.60% on the first Phase 3 win for a cancer vaccine. Marvell handed Google a $12.2bn warrant; Broadcom paid -4.61%. Canada’s 50% tariffs pause three days; Bitcoin +6.25% on an SEC framework.
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MIB Daily: One Analysis, No New Demand Data, 5.4% Off the Chips, Software Still Green, GDPNow Cut to 4.03%, and a 56% No-Landing Book That Argues for Rotating Within Risk Assets Rather Than Adding
A Wall Street Journal tally of $3 trillion in off-balance-sheet AI commitments gutted the memory complex — SNDK -9%, MU -7%, chips -5.4% — and dragged the Nasdaq 100 down 1.68%. Trump says no Iran talks; a bulk carrier was struck inside Hormuz and crude rose a third session. Housing starts collapsed 12.4%. Section 338 tariffs on Canada bite at midnight. GDPNow’s Q3 estimate has lost a third in a fortnight. Gold fell 1.79% anyway — the hedge failed.
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MIB Weekly: The Market Outvoted Five Fed Hawks and Bought a Record on a 23K Job Loss — AI Now Pays for Capital Discipline, Not Growth, and a Beat Buys Nothing; Wednesday’s CPI Can Undo All of It
The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,757.46, up 3.57% on the week, after July payrolls contracted 23,000 against an +83,000 consensus and priced a September rate hike out of the front end — over the objections of five Fed officials who spent four sessions arguing for one. Crude round-tripped 8.8% lower on the Hormuz reopening trade, leaving Energy down 3.66% with the strait still shut. Palantir surged 39.78%; AMD beat on every line and fell 7% on its capex.
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MIB Daily: Dow’s Record Close Hid an AI Reckoning — NVIDIA +3.43% Outguns Alphabet’s Retreat as Soft ADP Data Puts Friday’s Payrolls on Recession Watch
The Dow closed at a record 54,349 — and almost nothing else did. Private payrolls added just 44,000, ISM services employment fell into contraction, and September hike odds slid to 57% even as Kashkari and Cook publicly pushed for tightening. Alphabet dropped 4.03% after losing its chief scientist and DeepMind CEO in one day. Gold surged 3.71% to $4,306. Tower REITs fell 6% each as SpaceX aimed Starlink at the carriers. AI infrastructure sold off on no news; NVIDIA rose 3.43%.
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MIB Daily: Oil Did the Fed’s Job Today — WTI’s 5.52% Crash Funds a Record Dow and a $3T Amazon, But Chips and Transports Aren’t Buying the Truce
Trump called off strikes on Iran and crude cratered — WTI -5.52% to $80 — but Tehran denies talking to Washington and Hormuz stays shut. The Dow closed at a record 53,178.41, and this time breadth came along: 8 of 11 sectors green, Russell +1.72%. ISM manufacturing hit a post-2022 high and GDPNow leapt to 6.2%; bonds rallied anyway. Williams says the Fed hikes if inflation stalls. AstraZeneca-Bristol Myers weighed a $400bn merger; AZN fell 9%. Amazon topped $3 trillion.
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MIB Daily: Wall Street Sold the Fear, Not the Risk — Chips Reload on AI Capex as Defensives Fund the Trade and GDP’s 6.3% Price Index Keeps the Question Open
Wall Street erased Wednesday’s Fed-day rout: Nasdaq 100 +3.36%, S&P 500 +1.67%, VIX -17.33%. Microsoft surged 15.5% on 43% Azure growth; Meta sank 7.95%. Semis went vertical — Micron +18%, Lam +18%, AMAT +15%, AMD +13%. But Q2 GDP undershot at 1.5% with the price index spiking to 6.3%, and Dow Transports fell 1.74%. June core PCE cooled to 3.3%; jobless claims held at 197K. US strikes hit Iran overnight, yet crude closed lower and the dollar broke below 100.
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MIB Daily: Chips Crack and Oil Spikes on Hormuz Attacks — A Hawkish-Dovish Fed Split Meets Hot Inflation Data as Capital Rotates Into Energy and Healthcare
Chip stocks cratered despite Samsung’s blowout profit — Intel -9.66%, Nasdaq 100 -1.77% — as Reuters reported DeepSeek is building its own AI chip. NY Fed inflation expectations hit 3.7%, highest since 2023, lifting the 10-year 7bps and exposing a Hammack-hawkish, Williams-dovish Fed split before the July 28-29 FOMC. Oil spiked 5.3% after Iran struck tankers near Hormuz and Washington revoked Tehran’s export license. Healthcare’s rotation rally extended; Rivian sank 18% on a $1.5B raise, SpaceX slid 6.34% in its Nasdaq-100 debut.
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MIB Weekly: The Disinflation That Wasn’t — Iran Sent WTI to $69, Micron Proved AI Demand Is Real, and the Fed Went Unanimously Hawkish; Rotate Healthcare, Watch the July 1 Warsh Speech
Iran’s Hormuz normalization sent WTI down 8.6% to $70 and gold below $4,000 — extracting months of war-risk premium in five sessions — while the FOMC reached unanimous hawk consensus as Core PCE hit a 3-year high of 3.4% and Kashkari abandoned his rate-cut projection for a hike. Micron’s $41.5B revenue quarter proved AI memory demand is real and HBM is booked through 2027; the OpenAI IPO delay on Friday questioned whether AI monetization can sustain the infrastructure being built.
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MIB Daily: AI Capex Cracks, FOMC Unanimously Hawkish — Enterprise Software Long, Memory Short, Iran Oil Binary at $69 Unresolved
OpenAI may delay its IPO to 2027 — WDC -13%, STX -12%, Nasdaq -1.09% — as markets rotated into enterprise software (MSFT +5.71%, PLTR +5.28%). Kashkari flipped to a 2026 hike, completing a unanimous FOMC hawk chorus; the trade deficit exploded to $105.8B vs. $85B, lifting September cut odds to 55%. LLY +7.13% on EU leukemia approval drove healthcare to a record weekly outperformance. Iran struck a Hormuz vessel but oil fell -2.73%. Trump threatened 100% tariffs on DST nations.
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MIB Weekly: AI Infrastructure Goes Institutional ($51B Backlog, Contracts Signed) — Market Priced Iran Deal and No Hike; Neither Is Confirmed
Dell’s AI server blowout (+32.8%, $51.3B backlog) drove the Dow above 51,000 for the first time, confirming the AI infrastructure super-cycle as contracted structural demand. Iran’s Hormuz ceasefire sent WTI down 9% for the week — its largest monthly crude loss in six years — with Trump’s final determination still unsigned at Friday’s close. Q1 GDP 1.6%, corporate profits ‑0.4% QoQ, PCE 3.8%, and Bowman’s hawkish Fed pivot escalated June FOMC hike risk from noise to genuine debate.
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MIB Daily: Record Day Six, Worst Profit Quarter in Six — PLTR +8.17%, ORCL +6.67%; PCE 3.8% Locks the Fed; Own Government AI, Fade the Grid
S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at all-time records for a sixth straight session — PLTR +8.17%, ORCL +6.67% on JPMorgan’s ‘fourth hyperscaler’ call, AMD +4.55% — while Q1 GDP was revised to 1.6% and corporate profits collapsed -0.4% vs. +5.7% consensus. April PCE held at 3.8% with personal income flat, widening the consumer spending gap. LLY +4.05%: CVS Caremark restored Zepbound and approved oral GLP-1 Foundayo. Anthropic closed $65B at $965B. FOMC split: Williams holds; Musalem warns AI can’t rescue the Fed.
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MIB Digest: Hormuz Stagflation, Nasdaq 25K, and the Week AI Stopped Taking Capex on Faith
The Strait of Hormuz blockade sent WTI +7.94% and gasoline to a 4-year high of $4.30/gal, while the FOMC’s historic 8-4 split collapsed rate-cut probability from 59% to ~22.5% — stagflation confirmed as the Fed’s base-case bind. Alphabet’s Cloud +63% YoY drove Nasdaq above 25,000 for the first time; Meta’s $145B capex raise was punished -8.65% — the week AI demanded proof of ROI. Eli Lilly: Mounjaro $8.66B (+125% YoY), guidance raised to $82–85B.
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MIB: S&P 500 All-Time High on Earnings Strength as GDP Miss, Oil Blockade, and No-Cut Odds Dominate
Trump’s Hormuz blockade sent Brent to $126 intraday (settling $114); US gasoline hits $4.30/gallon, threatening $190B in annualized spending losses. S&P 500 set record 7,209 — best April since 2020 — as GOOGL, CAT, and LLY each surged ~10% on earnings beats while META fell -8.65% on $145B AI capex without ROI clarity. Q1 GDP +2.0% (slight miss), PCE 3.5%, ECI +0.9% — markets price 77% odds of no Fed cuts in 2026; Warsh clears Senate Banking 13-11, confirmation due May 11.
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MIB: Ceasefire Without Peace — Iran’s Crypto Tolls Keep Hormuz Blocked as Amazon’s AI Billions Power a Fractured Rally
Hormuz stays blocked — Iran demands crypto tolls from tankers; WTI +4.5% to $98.65, briefly clearing $100 intraday. Amazon (AMZN +5.6%) CEO Jassy disclosed AWS AI revenue hit $15B+ annualized. Meta signed a $21B AI cloud deal with CoreWeave through 2032. Anthropic’s Managed Agents launch hammered enterprise AI peers — PLTR -7.3%, ORCL -4%. IMF cut US 2026 growth forecast to 1.6%. S&P 500 +0.62% to 6,824 in post-ceasefire consolidation.
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MIB: Iran Off-Ramp Sparks Risk-On Rally While SpaceX Goes Public and the Energy Trade Unwinds
Iran peace talk sends S&P +0.72%, WTI below $100 for first time in weeks. SpaceX files confidential IPO at $1.75T valuation — could be largest in history. Intel reclaims Irish fab from Apollo for $14.2B; INTC +8.79%, chip sector surges. Lilly’s Foundayo becomes first oral GLP-1 weight-loss pill (LLY +3.78%). IEA warns April oil supply crisis twice as bad as March. Trump floats NATO exit; XOM -5.23%, CVX -4.59%.
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MIB: Rally on Borrowed Peace — Iran Hopes Lift S&P 2.9% but $100 Oil and a Quantum Threat Linger
S&P 500 +2.91% and Nasdaq +3.43% on WSJ report Trump is willing to end Iran war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Gas hits $4/gallon — highest since 2022 — even as peace talks start. Oracle cut 30,000 jobs (18% of workforce) to fund AI data centers; $58B in new debt. Google warned quantum computers could crack Bitcoin in 9 minutes. Eli Lilly acquired Centessa for $7.8B to enter narcolepsy drugs. Nike beat Q3 estimates but fell 3% AH on weak China.
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MIB: FOMC Day One, Oil Resumes Rally, Amazon’s $600B AI Bet, and a Brutal LLY Downgrade
Oil resumed its climb — WTI $96, Brent $103+ — as FOMC Day 1 began and Monday’s de-escalation optimism faded. Amazon CEO Jassy doubled AWS 10-year target to $600B on AI demand (AMZN +1%). HSBC issued a rare Sell on LLY (-5.3%) citing GLP-1 market TAM saturation and imminent price wars. February retail sales beat (+0.6%) showed the consumer holding firm. Delta (DAL +6%) and American (AAL +4%) lifted Q1 guidance — travel demand crushing oil cost headwinds.
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