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MIB Daily: CPI’s In-Line Core of 2.5% Steepens the Curve on a $432B Deficit While VIX Craters to 14.55 — Rotate Dell and Oracle Over Microsoft and Amazon as Capex Risk Builds, but What’s Left to Buy Into a Busy Calendar?

By RecessionALERT on August 12, 2026 in Reflections

July CPI landed exactly on consensus — core at 2.5%, slowest since March 2021 — and the VIX collapsed 4.78% to 14.55, an eight-month low. But the 10-year rose anyway: Treasury booked a record $432B July deficit with customs receipts turning negative. AI hardware ripped (Dell +9.87%, Oracle +5.36%), funded by selling Microsoft and Amazon. Canada rejected a sweetened US offer seven days from the tariff cliff. Meta fell 3.38% as its 29-state trial began. Crude posted its biggest build since 2023.

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MIB Daily: Oil Just Took the Fed’s Steering Wheel — Brent +4.72% Overrides Soft Labor Costs While GS -2.62% and C -2.78% Drag the Dow, Williams Waves Off an AI Bubble, and Crude Sparks a Rotation Ahead of Friday’s Payrolls

By RecessionALERT on August 6, 2026 in Reflections

Iran’s restrictive Hormuz draft blew up the reopening trade — Brent +4.72% to $83.20, Energy the lone sector gainer. Banks dragged the Dow down 464 points; Goldman and Citi each off more than 2.5%. Q2 unit labour costs came in at 1.3% against 2.1% expected and claims held below 200K for a third week — yields rose anyway. SpaceX doubled its float and still closed up 6.14%. Williams says AI isn’t a bubble; tech steadied, Microsoft +2.54%. July payrolls Friday, 80K expected.

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MIB Daily: MU +12%, SNDK +14% Rally as Fed Zeroes Out 2026 Cuts — Can AI Survive a Hawkish FOMC and Friday’s Tariff Deadline?

By RecessionALERT on July 21, 2026 in Reflections

Memory chips ignite a broad market rally — Micron +12%, SanDisk +14% — pushing the Nasdaq 1.93% higher on 9-of-11 green sectors. But the backdrop turned hostile: Fed officials’ hawkish pre-blackout chorus erased 2026 rate-cut odds to zero and priced in 47% hike odds ahead of next week’s FOMC. Oil jumped to a five-week high on a tanker strike near the Strait of Hormuz. Trump also slapped 50% tariffs on Canada, with a global tariff overhaul looming as Friday’s stopgap expires.

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