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MIB Weekly: Stagflation Confirmed, AI Capex Accelerating, Summit Resolved Nothing — Own Energy & AI Infrastructure, Sell Rate-Sensitive Duration Through the Fall Diplomatic Window

By RecessionALERT on May 16, 2026 in Reflections

WTI crude surged +11.52% to $105.48 as US-Iran ceasefire talks collapsed — “garbage” per Trump Tuesday — while CPI 3.8% and PPI 6.0% pushed rate-hike odds from under 3% to over 50% in 72 hours and the 10Y to a one-year high of 4.601%. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair inheriting this stagflation stack. The Trump-Xi summit briefly drove records (S&P 7,500, Dow 50,000 Thursday) before crashing Friday on zero binding deals — tariffs, chips, and Taiwan all unresolved.

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MIB: NFP Blowout Lifts S&P to ATH as Michigan Sentiment Hits 74-Year Low, Apple-Intel Deal Reshapes US Chip Strategy

By RecessionALERT on May 8, 2026 in Reflections

April NFP exploded to +115K vs. 65K expected, vaulting the S&P 500 to a new ATH and cementing Fed-on-hold through 2027 — but Michigan Sentiment crashed to a 74-year record low of 48.2 as $4.55 gasoline hammers household confidence. Apple and Intel struck a preliminary chip-manufacturing deal backed by a 10% White House equity stake in Intel. Micron crossed $800B, eclipsing JPMorgan. Iran diplomacy inched forward but active military exchanges continue — Hormuz remains the inflation wildcard. Warsh Senate vote: next week.

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