Dow hit a new record (50,580) on US-Iran diplomatic progress; QCOM surged +11.6% on a Stellantis Snapdragon automotive chip deal. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair while Waller dropped the easing bias — markets now price a two-in-three October rate hike. UMich final May sentiment hit an all-time low of 44.8 with 5-year inflation expectations jumping to 3.9%. MRK +5.6% on Phase III lung cancer win with raised guidance; Walmart C-suite shakeup deepens with two senior departures.
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MIB Daily: Dow 50,580 ATH While Bonds Price October Hike — Warsh’s June FOMC Test, Inflation De-Anchoring at 3.9%, QCOM’s Automotive Pivot
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MIB Daily: WMT –7.3% converts soft data to hard guidance — Flash PMI prices hit 2022 high, IBM wins foundry, NVDA can’t hold its beat
IBM surged +12% on a $1B CHIPS Act quantum foundry award, fueling a broad AI-semiconductor rally. Walmart cratered -7.27%, citing tariffs and fuel in a guidance miss that flags real consumer stress. The Philadelphia Fed collapsed 27 points to -0.4 as new orders turned negative, while Flash PMI input prices hit a post-2022 high. Richmond Fed’s Barkin questioned whether five-plus years above target still justifies the ‘look through’ doctrine. NVDA fell -1.77% despite 85% revenue growth — its fourth post-earnings decline.
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MIB: Blockade Economics — Hormuz Chokes Oil Markets, Traps the Fed, and Markets Bet on Diplomacy
S&P 500 +1% as investors bet on Iran diplomacy despite Hormuz blockade and oil near $98. Oracle soared 12.7% on AI utilities platform launch (ORCL). Goldman Sachs beat Q1 estimates but fell 2% on FICC miss (GS). Trump threatened 50% tariffs on China over Iran arms shipment reports. Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting hit 3.56% — rate cuts now a 2027 story. Meta set to overtake Google in global digital ad revenue for first time ever.
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MIB: AI Sentiment Reset, Gold at Record $5,200, and the $30B Warner Bros. Bidding War
NVDA fell 5.5% despite record Q4 revenue ($68.1B, +73% YoY) — AI trade set to a new standard. Gold hit an all-time record above $5,200 as US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva approach Trump’s March 6 strike deadline. WBD board calls Paramount Skydance’s $31/share bid “superior” to Netflix, starting a 4-day bidding war. Dell surges 9% after hours on a $22B AI server backlog. Fed Vice Chair Bowman signals broad bank deregulation. Nasdaq -1.2%, Russell +0.5% — sharpest rotation in months.
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MIB: PCE Re-Accelerates, Consumer Confidence Craters, and Nvidia Defies the Macro
Nvidia reported Q4 EPS of $1.62 (est. $1.53) with revenue of $68.1B and guided Q1 to $78B — sending shares +6% after-hours on a near-record beat. Markets shrugged off Trump’s SOTU optimism as economists warned the SCOTUS tariff reversal won’t translate to lower consumer prices. December PCE Core re-accelerated to 3.0% YoY — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge moving in the wrong direction and eliminating any realistic H1 rate cut. Silver surged 3.4% to near $90/oz while First Solar cratered 18% on a brutal guidance miss. S&P 500 +0.81%, Nasdaq +1.26%.
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