The Supreme Court preserved Fed independence 5-4 (Lisa Cook stays) while overturning Humphrey’s Executor 6-3, sending the Nasdaq 100 to a 2.26% gain. NVIDIA’s $3.2B Corning AI deal drove GLW +15.7% and SOXX +3.76% as Alphabet debuted on the Dow, crossing 52,000. Iran’s ‘stand down’ unwound gold -1.60% but Doha talks Tuesday face structural friction. Pantheon projects Thursday’s NFP at 75K vs 172K in May — stagflation signal crystallizing. Strategy plans to sell $1.25B in Bitcoin, flipping BTC supply negative.
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MIB Daily: SCOTUS 5-4 and Iran Ease Spark Rally; Bond Non-Confirmation Warns — Overweight Semis, Fade Duration Into 75K NFP Thursday
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MIB Daily: Micron’s AI Windfall Is Apple’s Cost Crisis — PCE 3.4% Signals a Hike as RUT Hits All-Time High
Micron (MU +15.74%) posted $41.5B in Q3 revenue — quadruple year-over-year — lifting semiconductors while Apple (-6.12%) and Microsoft (-3.46%) fell on AI memory-driven hardware price hikes. Core PCE hit 3.4% YoY, highest since Oct 2023; Williams and Goolsbee hawkish, September hike window rising. Q1 GDP revised to 2.1% but consumer spending +0.5%, weakest since 2022; GDPNow cut Q2 to 2.5%. Russell 2000 closed at an all-time record as capital fled mega-cap tech. Bitcoin breached $60K, now 50% off its 2026 peak.
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MIB: Ceasefire Euphoria — Oil Craters 14%, S&P Surges, Then the Strait Closes Again
S&P +2.51%, Dow +1,325 pts on Trump-Iran two-week ceasefire — but the Strait of Hormuz partially halted again by day’s end as the truce frayed. WTI -14.5%; semiconductors led: INTC +11%, LRCX +10%. Travel surged: UAL +10%, CCL +11%. Energy the only loser: XOM -5%, CVX -5%. UNH +9.4% on $13B Medicare Advantage windfall. FOMC minutes revealed rate hike discussions — Friday’s March CPI is the next test.
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MIB: $111 Oil, Drug Tariffs, and a Tesla Gut-Punch — Markets Stare Down the Iran Abyss
WTI surges +11.6% to $111.69 as Trump vows 2-3 more weeks of Iran war with no Hormuz off-ramp; gasoline $4.08 nationally. S&P 500 recovered from -1.5% to close +0.11% after Iran/Oman signaled a Hormuz monitoring protocol. Trump unveiled 100% tariffs on patented drugs (120-day phase-in). Tesla deliveries 358K missed by 12K (TSLA -5.42%). Oracle confirms 30,000 layoffs to fund AI expansion. March NFP tomorrow — markets react Monday.
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MIB: Rally on Borrowed Peace — Iran Hopes Lift S&P 2.9% but $100 Oil and a Quantum Threat Linger
S&P 500 +2.91% and Nasdaq +3.43% on WSJ report Trump is willing to end Iran war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Gas hits $4/gallon — highest since 2022 — even as peace talks start. Oracle cut 30,000 jobs (18% of workforce) to fund AI data centers; $58B in new debt. Google warned quantum computers could crack Bitcoin in 9 minutes. Eli Lilly acquired Centessa for $7.8B to enter narcolepsy drugs. Nike beat Q3 estimates but fell 3% AH on weak China.
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MIB: WTI -9.5%, S&P Reclaims 200-DMA, Gold Unwinds as Iran Ceasefire Hopes Muddy the Picture
WTI crashed 9.5% after Trump announced a 5-day pause on Iran strikes — but markets rallied, S&P 500 +1.15% back near 6,580. Gold shed 3.6% as safe-haven bids unwound. Palantir +6.7% on a Pentagon Maven AI contract. S&P reclaimed the 200-DMA after a 3-day streak below. GDPNow slipped to 2.0%, its lowest this cycle. Bitcoin +4.5% to $71K.
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MIB: GTC Sparks Relief Rally — Nvidia’s $1T AI Forecast, FOMC Dot Plot, USMCA Launch, and the Hormuz Oil Clock
Nvidia’s GTC keynote delivers $1T AI chip order forecast (NVDA +2.2%), snapping the S&P’s 3-week losing streak (+1.01%). Meta plans to cut 20% of staff (16K jobs) to fund $135B AI build. USMCA formal review launches — US and Mexico
begin talks with a July 1 deadline. Oil retreats ~4% from overnight highs but Hormuz stays closed. FOMC convenes tomorrow; stagflation dot plot is the week’s defining risk. Bitcoin hits 6-week high ($74.5K, +3.7%).
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