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MIB Daily: Oil’s 5% Hormuz shock reprices inflation risk as chipmakers tap $500B in outside AI financing and a second chokepoint breaks the rerouting hedge — does September turn stagflationary after Wednesday’s CPI?

By RecessionALERT on August 10, 2026 in Reflections

Oil ripped 5.2% after Iran demanded the US blockade lift before Hormuz reopens — Energy +3.61%, the S&P still closed flat. Yields and VIX rose together: an inflation scare, not a growth one, two days before CPI. Cleveland’s Hammack wants more than one hike. Chips led the downside — Nvidia -2.87% on $500B of financing, Intel -4.04% on a $15B raise — while TSMC’s July revenue hit a record. Palo Alto and CrowdStrike set records. Vertex jumped 6% on a rival’s failure.

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MIB Daily: Oil Did the Fed’s Job Today — WTI’s 5.52% Crash Funds a Record Dow and a $3T Amazon, But Chips and Transports Aren’t Buying the Truce

By RecessionALERT on August 3, 2026 in Reflections

Trump called off strikes on Iran and crude cratered — WTI -5.52% to $80 — but Tehran denies talking to Washington and Hormuz stays shut. The Dow closed at a record 53,178.41, and this time breadth came along: 8 of 11 sectors green, Russell +1.72%. ISM manufacturing hit a post-2022 high and GDPNow leapt to 6.2%; bonds rallied anyway. Williams says the Fed hikes if inflation stalls. AstraZeneca-Bristol Myers weighed a $400bn merger; AZN fell 9%. Amazon topped $3 trillion.

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MIB Daily: Dow 50,580 ATH While Bonds Price October Hike — Warsh’s June FOMC Test, Inflation De-Anchoring at 3.9%, QCOM’s Automotive Pivot

By RecessionALERT on May 22, 2026 in Reflections

Dow hit a new record (50,580) on US-Iran diplomatic progress; QCOM surged +11.6% on a Stellantis Snapdragon automotive chip deal. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair while Waller dropped the easing bias — markets now price a two-in-three October rate hike. UMich final May sentiment hit an all-time low of 44.8 with 5-year inflation expectations jumping to 3.9%. MRK +5.6% on Phase III lung cancer win with raised guidance; Walmart C-suite shakeup deepens with two senior departures.

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