Microsoft (MSFT) jumped 3.66%, leading the Dow and S&P 500, after a Copilot overhaul putting its agents on usage-based pricing. Core capital-goods orders rose 1.6%, but Michigan year-ahead inflation expectations climbed to 4.6%, keeping an October hike in play. WTI fell 2.01% on hopes of a phased US-Iran Hormuz deal. Xi left Washington with no new purchase deals and advanced chips off the table. BofA double-downgraded Nike (NKE) to Underperform with a $30 target, six days before earnings.
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MIB Daily: Good News Is Now the Fed’s Problem, as MSFT +3.66% and a 1.6% Capex Jump Carry AI Into Industrials, Xi Leaves Without Deals and Wednesday’s Core PCE Decides an October Hike
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MIB Daily: AI Came for the Banks as Schwab Fell 6.1% and Memory Lifted the Nasdaq 100 to a Record, Iran’s Hormuz Offer Sank WTI 2.73%, and Barkin’s “We’ll See” Leaves Rate Risk Unpriced
Wall Street split: the Nasdaq 100 closed above its June peak as SanDisk (+6.82%) and Micron (+5.00%) ran, while the S&P bank index sank 3% on AI-disruption fears from Meta’s Muse agent, with Schwab down 6.1%. WTI fell 2.73%, a fifth straight loss, after Iran offered to reopen Hormuz within seven days. Trump pushed a diesel export ban; Valero, also downgraded, slid 4.10%. Fed’s Barkin on more hikes: “We’ll see.” Royal Caribbean tumbled 6.14% on a $3B Sandals stake report.
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MIB Daily: The 2-Year Prices a Second Hike While Stocks Carry Zero Premium, Record $6.45 Diesel Is the Inflation the Fed Can’t Reach, and a 10-Year at 4.998% Hits Netflix as Chip Equipment Is Bought
The 10-Year climbed back to 4.998% as the 2-Year jumped 6.4bps and Bank of America warned of a “2022 redux.” The Bank of Japan hiked to 1.25%, a 31-year high — and the yen weakened. WTI fell 2.35% to $99.52 while AAA’s national diesel average hit a record $6.4476. Warren Buffett stepped down as Berkshire chairman at 96. Bitcoin jumped 6.15% above $80,000; Netflix fell 4.67% on a Wells Fargo downgrade. August industrial production stalled as manufacturing output fell 0.3%.
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MIB Daily: The Fed Can Raise Rates but It Cannot Pump Oil, 10Y at 5.006% on a Seventh Straight Rise With WTI +4.10%, as Carlyle Likens AI Lending to Subprime and Crypto’s Rulebook Dies 46-43
The Senate killed crypto market structure 46-43 — Lummis: “I think we’re done. It’s over.” Bitcoin fell 3.84% to $76,058. The 10-year posted its first 5%-handle close, a seventh straight, on the eve of a hike priced at 96%. WTI +4.10% to $105.55 with Saudi’s pipeline up to six weeks from repair; EIA weekly diesel broke $6 at $6.285. Empire State collapsed to 7.6 from 20.60. Carlyle likened AI-infrastructure lending to subprime. Thermo Fisher +4.53%; Wells Fargo cut its S&P target to 7,700.
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MIB Daily: IBM’s Worst Day Since 1987 Confirms the AI-to-Cybersecurity Rotation — CPI Cools to 3.5%, But Wednesday’s PPI Decides If the Fed Agrees
June CPI cooled sharply to 3.5% y/y, crushing July Fed hike odds to 17% from 42%, as Chair Warsh’s first House testimony struck a hawkish note. Markets rallied broadly (S&P +0.39%, Nasdaq +1.10%) despite IBM’s historic 25% crash, its worst day since 1987, as enterprise clients pivot spend toward AI hardware — hammering software (Oracle -2.7%) while cybersecurity soared (CrowdStrike +12%). Goldman Sachs surged 9.16% on record trading. Oil jumped over 2% as Trump narrowed the Hormuz blockade to Iran-linked shipping.
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MIB Weekly: The Fed Talked Tough, the Jobs Data Called Its Bluff — Rotate Out of Memory Chips as Dow Hits 52,900
The S&P 500 gained 1.76% this holiday-shortened week as the Dow notched three fresh records, but a violent AI-infrastructure whipsaw defined the tape: Monday’s snapback reversed into a two-day global semiconductor rout after Meta’s AI-cloud pivot (META +8.85% then -4.90%) triggered a KOSPI circuit breaker. The bigger story was labor: June nonfarm payrolls badly missed at 57K vs. 115K consensus, forcing markets to price out a near-term Fed hike even as Fed officials talked tough on inflation days earlier.
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MIB Daily: META +8.85% threatens the chip trade from within (SOX -7%) — short semis, own Financials as Thursday’s NFP decides the stagflation exit
META +8.85% on AI cloud reports; global semi selloff (KLAC -11.8%, MU -10.57%, SOX -7%) split Q3’s opening session. Atlanta Fed cut GDPNow to 1.2% from 2.5% — 2026’s largest single-day revision — as ADP missed at 98K; Thursday’s NFP is the binary risk event. Warsh at ECB Sintra refused July guidance with hike odds at 54%; 10Y +6 bps to 4.48%. WFC +3.99% on Goldman upgrade and 11% dividend raise as all 32 banks cleared stress tests; Financials +1.61%.
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MIB: Triple Catalyst Day — Iran Ceasefire Crashes Oil, Record Bank Earnings Lift S&P Past 7,000, Trump Threatens Fed Independence
Trump threatens to fire Powell by May if he doesn’t resign, rattling bond markets. Oil crashes 7.87% as Iran ceasefire extended — Trump says war ‘very close to over.’ Fed Beige Book warns gas at $4/gallon and hiring freezes spreading. IEA sees first global oil demand decline since COVID. S&P 500 hits record 7,022 — above 7,000 for the first time. Tesla rockets 8% on AI5 chip milestone (UBS upgrades from Sell). BAC, MS, BLK all post record/near-record Q1 earnings.
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MIB: Iran Blinks — WTI Craters 7%, S&P Rallies, But Gold at $4,866 Says the Market Doesn’t Believe It
US-Iran talks could restart Thursday — WTI crude -6.86% to $92, S&P 500 +1.18% to 6,967. March PPI +0.5% vs +1.1% feared; core +0.1% — no second-wave inflation yet. IEA: 2026 oil demand to contract for first time since COVID. Gold hit new record $4,866/oz (+2.08%) even on a risk-on day. JPMorgan record $16.5B profit but NII cut (JPM -3%); WFC -5.70% on revenue miss. Oracle surged +4.74% on history’s largest AI fuel cell deal with Bloom Energy.
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